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originally posted by: Ophiuchus1
Don’t know if this been posted previously….I don’t feel like digging back in time at the moment….
But here’s an analysis of the photo and some discussion by some Brits about a year ago…
Digest it as you will…
👽☕️🧐
As is well known, atmospheric ducting is the explanation for certain optical mirages, and in particular the arctic illusion called "fata morgana" where distant ocean or surface ice, which is essentially flat, appears to the viewer in the form of vertical columns and spires, or "castles in the air".
People often assume that mirages occur only rarely. This may be true of optical mirages, but conditions for radar mirages are more common, due to the role played by water vapor which strongly affects the atmospheric refractivity in relation to radio waves. Since clouds are closely associated with high levels of water vapor, optical mirages due to water vapor are often rendered undetectable by the accompanying opaque cloud. On the other hand, radar propagation is essentially unaffected by the water droplets of the cloud so that changes in water vapor content with altitude are very effective in producing atmospheric ducting and radar mirages.[41]
ConfusedBrit seemed skeptical of the mirage explanation but didn't really explain why. I can't say I've seen it ruled out, but I'm skeptical of that idea too and I'll explain why.
originally posted by: BrucellaOrchitis
Thanks for posting this, it is linked earlier in the thread - twice maybe - but I wasn't online in 2022 so I missed all the excitement and appreciate your drawing it to my attention.
I realise many participants are MIA but Confused Brit, a few times I think, says it can't be a mirage. Arbi mentions mirages too but in another context. It really looks like it could be a fata morgana to me. What am I missing? Where has that been ruled out?
Virtually all of that sounds consistent with mirages, which can be unstable even when the observer is stationary but when the observer is moving like Arnold was, they can be even more unstable in appearance, since the layers of air forming them are rarely perfectly uniform.
Sometimes he said he could see them on edge when they seemed so thin and flat they were practically invisible. According to Jerome Clark,[3][4] Arnold described them as a series of objects with convex shapes, though he later revealed that one object differed by being crescent-shaped. Several years later, Arnold would state he likened their movement to saucers skipping on water
...
The motion he generally described as weaving like the tail of a kite and erratic flipping.
When light rays travel through air layers with different temperatures – and therefore also with different densities and different refractive indices – distant objects will appear displaced or distorted. Objects on the horizon, such as islands, cliffs, ships or icebergs, may then appear vertically stretched (towering), vertically compressed (stooping), elevated (looming) or partly, if not totally, hidden by a displaced horizon (sinking). Sometimes multiple images are created and almost always inverted images will appear. This latter form of abnormal atmospheric refraction is called a mirage.
originally posted by: Arbitrageur
So if I was going to look for some evidence of a mirage in the Calvine image, what I would be looking for is some kind of distortion, and I'm not seeing much distortion, I'm seeing a fairly symmetrical object, which no matter what it's a mirage of, would seem a bit TOO symmetrical to be a typical mirage, though I suppose that may not rule it out completely. The following link has a dozen or so examples of mirages and many of them show reflections, and ALL the reflections have less vertical symmetry than the Calvine UFO image, and show more distortion, and the accompanying text also talks about distortion:
originally posted by: Arbitrageur
Note the asymmetry in those mirage reflections and compare to the relative vertical symmetry of the Calvine image.
originally posted by: Arbitrageur
The next point is, what would it be a mirage of? In Kenneth Arnold's case, the hypothesis was he saw mirages of more distant mountain peaks. Mirages won't just create a symmetrical image like that Calvine image out of nothing, there would have to be some kind of source, as seen in the example photos at the link above. I'm not seeing any evidence or plausible theory of what that source might have been. If someone found something in that direction which resembled the mirage, that would lend a lot of support to the mirage idea, but I don't think anybody has. The mirage may be shifted vertically, but it wouldn't be shifted much horizontally.
originally posted by: Arbitrageur
For example, I did an analysis like this in the Salida CO UFO which I think was a mirage, and I found a plausible source of the mirage using Google Earth in the direction where the mirage was sighted, so I'm all for using mirages as an explanation if they actually fit and I think a mirge or reflection fits that Salida case well too. So far I just haven't seen how it fits with the Calvine image. I wouldn't go so far as to say I've ruled it out, though I'd say it just doesn't seem likely.