Why is Bitcoin stagnant right now?

Full disclosure, I own some Bitcoin. It wasn't my wisest investment, because I don't totally understand the tech side of how it works. But I had some throwaway money at the time and I never invest money I can't afford to lose, so I bought some years ago. At its current price, I've about tripled my investment, so it has still worked out well for me.

Lately though I'm wondering if I should sell it and take my gains. To be clear, I invested purely to make money, I'm not in it for any supposed long-term potential of replacing fiat currency or any ideological reasons.

Two reasons I'm thinking about selling: 1) Depending on who you listen to, it has gotten closer to being a "normal," regulated currency. 2) Perhaps for related reasons, it hasn't been performing lately like I would have expected given all this economic turmoil.

I know it has gone through long periods of stagnation in the past and then suddenly had huge jumps, and of course sometimes had huge losses. I'm just wondering if the train is off the rails now because it has gotten a little too mainstream.

What do you guys think? I'm sure I'll get a myriad of opinions so I will take them all with a grain of salt.

You can't lose if you don't sell.

a reply to: face23785

As a big time believer, 100% of my 401k, two different wallets, and owner of a lot of atl coin RAINI, I can say this is par for the course. May even see 30k here in the next couple months. BTC has a hard time climbing when the DXY is high. The market can pull down BTC as well.

originally posted by: MPoling
a reply to: face23785

As a big time believer, 100% of my 401k, two different wallets, and owner of a lot of atl coin RAINI, I can say this is par for the course. May even see 30k here in the next couple months. BTC has a hard time climbing when the DXY is high. The market can pull down BTC as well.

That's kinda my point though. Wasn't some of the original point of it to be independent of all the big business and fiat currency ups and downs of global markets?

Now it seems like it's at least somewhat tied to it.

a reply to: face23785

I know less than nothing, so don't listen to me, ever.

But the crypto market is down, what little bit I was unable to forget about economics, is don't sell when the market is down.

I just bought more Ethereum today, because it's down. But we are indeed lucky to have some incredible minds here who know a good bit about the crypto market, and if you can be there, when the other smart guy asks the right questions, you may be able to luck into some solid advice.

a reply to: face23785

DO NOT SELL

BTC is a long term investment for 95% of us.
You will sell then in 4-5 years will hate yourself.

Just hold it and think long term

Bitcoin is no longer living up to its rep as a private government evading currency.
In fact, government police agencies around the world right now are lapping up the bitcoin technology with software that is catching criminals using bitcoin often, very easily.

So beware folks if you think bitcoin is private...and evades the PTB. It doesn't!

I regret selling most of my BTC, since it was $200 a coin back then... but I broke even and had to pay some bills.
So it goes.

I've got maybe 30k in holdings for various cryptos now (maybe 7k invested), and as long as the lights stay on I suspect it will be worth ten times that in ten years, on the low end.

Like everyone else said, don't sell it if you don't have to.

If I hadn't sold mine, I'd be debt free and sitting on a few million right now. What's left is only a few grand, but it was essentially free money.

a reply to: face23785

Selling now may be wise if you intend to roll that money into stocks. As stocks tumble BTC usually follows to some degree. Selling now would position you to buy an eventual bottom on stocks assuming both continue to decline, increasing your buying power down the road and helping you beat inflation. The danger is if the bottom takes too long and inflation starts eating into your purchase power. I think it will be difficult to keep up with inflation in the near future without more sophisticated strategies, very difficult should we continue downward or even remain in a protracted sideways crawl.

A small rally in the past couple days got people hopeful, but it was on low volume relative to recent history. The price increase, in this case, was probably not based on market sentiment. The fear/greed index measures a number of factors and has been a very valuable tool to me. It's currently still firmly into fear, which indicates a reluctance to enter or increase crypto market positions along with general doomposting on socials.

It wouldn't be at all unexpected to see several similar rallies on BTC, crypto in general, and stocks, as they continue to reach the eventual bottom. During the last two serious crashes there were significant rallies of 10%+ for the ride down. I expect a couple more before the bottom is in.

If you're looking for longer term investing I will say that my opinion differs from some of what you've been hearing. I don't hold BTC often, but I don't believe it's done just yet and it will never be just another currency. It is getting more mainstream, but it's still P2P and decentralized. It's just not good for use as a currency in day to day transactions. It's already been that you need regular banks and an exchange to move into fiat for a while, but that's not going to change and is pretty much universal in crypto and everything else finance related. If you're in a big city you could possibly sell in person for cash, but obviously there are risks and buyers expect a discount.

I wouldn't be surprised to see BTC in the 20's before we see a real recovery.

This is all just my .02 and I'd encourage you to look into it deeper before making a decision. I'm just talking generalities and your situation could have a number of factors making another approach more in line with your goals. Keep in mind that depending on the amount and your location there may be significant tax implications.

Crypto is at a low point right now, which means it's time to buy, not sell! I just bought more BTC today in fact.

Keep in mind that Bitcoin has a fixed quantity of 21 million bitcoin, that's all that will ever be available and several million are already likely lost forever. Less than 5% of the world currently owns any crypto at all, imagine if/when bitcoin becomes the standard of transaction and the other 95% start using it as well...it's going to become incredibly valuable. Some folks think it can even hit $1,000,000 per coin by 2030.

So yea, the last thing I'd do right now is sell your crypto. Bad move IMO.

a reply to: face23785

Why is Bitcoin stagnant right now?

Because Madison Cawthorn's shady crypto scam got rumbled?

a reply to: Subsonic

What happens to crypto when the power goes out? Thinking EMP.

It's down 9% today. I wouldn't call that stagnant, exactly.


Don't own any and not going to buy any.

originally posted by: Antisocialist
a reply to: Subsonic

What happens to crypto when the power goes out? Thinking EMP.

It's down 9% today. I wouldn't call that stagnant, exactly.

Don't own any and not going to buy any.

Exact same thing that happens to digital USD.
I'm the blink of an eye, it's gone.

originally posted by: Subsonic
...imagine if/when bitcoin becomes the standard of transaction and the other 95% start using it as well..

It won't happen for numerous reasons but primarily because it's a terrible currency.

a reply to: Subsonic


I program occasionally for a few futures traders. Was trying to upload screenshots of recent developments with BTC - in my library, but
doesn't seem to work. Any suggestions?

Ah, got it to work.

Anyway, the point is BTC has been a seller's market for a long time (see timeline on charts). Of all futures contracts that I program, BTC is the craziest. Be careful! It's a seller's market.


files.abovetopsecret.com...

The red blocks at the bottom of the chart below are BID/ASK delta blocks. Sellers in control.

files.abovetopsecret.com...

I'm personally surprised it didn't crash years ago. You can't buy anything with it basically anywhere, it's totally unregulated, and nobody is 100% certain of its origins other than whoever created it, though there are theories, some more reasonable than others, on that last point. I mean, obviously I wish I'd invested in it like 5 years ago in hindsight, but if I had, I'd probably have sold out long ago. Maybe people are realizing these facts, maybe it's something else? After the last recession and the early COVID days, things are looking up economically, so maybe people don't feel the need to get into cryptocurrencies?

I appreciate the replies. I know typically you don't sell at a low point. Like I said, even if I sold now, I've tripled my initial investment.

The question though is is its run up finished? It's not going to gain value exponentially forever. And as I noted, I thought part of its allure was that it was unregulated and decoupled from the dollar and markets. That doesn't appear true anymore.

The more mainstream it gets, won't it actually lose its appeal? Again, sorry if these are dumb questions. I probably should've found a lot of this stuff out before I bought it

My instinct is to stay in it because I don't need the money I could cash out right now, and if it continues to drop and I wind up losing money--well, that's why I invested money I could afford to lose.

a reply to: Macenroe82

Err no. Bitcoin will last as long as the encryptions hold and that all depends on quantum computers.

So they estimate it would take about a million qubit computer to figure out the bitcoin encyption in 10 minutes.

If someone figures it out and then makes more coins, well thats just like printing money isn’t it. When that happens the trust in the system goes down and your coins become diddly squat.

Multi-million qubit machines are coming sooner than you think….

All you need is one of them allowing the public to use it and then the whole bitcoin industry goes kaput.

It's all fun and games until the government decides you can't have any of it and taxes you into oblivion, and yes, based upon your unrealized gains.

I like the concept of crypto, but alarm bells go off in my head every time I think about getting in.

Even with the blockchain tech, and all these new "alt coins" that are swindling more people out of their money, the one thing they all have in common? Still gotta be exchanged for dollars.

Until that changes, hodl.