Understanding External Cycles

Understanding External Cycles:

Angular Momentum (AM) is the gravitational influence in speed and rotation between objects in our solar system which determine our Barycenter – Center of Mass of the Solar System (CMSS) and together with its fluctuating magnetic field strengths and polarities, control most of the variations on the Sun.
Not only do the planet positions control the Sun’s variations, but the strength of influence is also dependable in the relation of their position and movement towards Aphelion (farthest) and Perihelion (closest) around the Sun. This changing gravitational balancing point makes the Sun and whole solar system to wobble around while moving through space.
Planetary (AM) between each other are also at play and can be seen on Earth’s magnetosphere in the 60 years cycle with the Jupiter/Saturn motion which play a role in the cosmic radiation Earth receive.
Any length of a cycle will vary around its average time depending on the eccentricity of a planet's orbit and changing velocity. Gravitational tidal forces should mostly stress spring cycles while electro-magnetic forces could be linked to the solar wobbling dynamics, and would mostly stress the synodic cycles.
Spin Orbit coupling is the transfer of orbital (AM) to spin momentum between orbiting bodies. Total (AM) is made up of orbital & spin momentum and both must be in balance.

The Sun
The Sun has 3 magnetic fields
1) The background field (like an ocean) called the “Poloidal field”
2+3) The loops which are embedded in this “Poloidal field” (solar flares or Coronal Mass Eruptions (CME) + the roots of the loops when they break through the convection zone, which are the sunspots we see, called the “Toroidal field”.
4) The Sun also has a neutral zone/sheet splitting its Northern and Southern hemispheres on its equatorial plain. This neutral line/sheet however has a warp, which rotates at a slower speed than the Sun’s equator and poles. This neutral line/sheet takes 18 169 years to make one rotation and seems to follow the precession cycle.
Due to the Sun’s tilt of 7° on its axis the period when the warp area move pass Earth, Earth will receive more positive, then negative and back to positive particles, or the other way around depending if the Sun’s Northern or Southern poles are facing Earth.

“The Mercury Effect”
Mercury rotates in 87.45 days around the Sun. Due to its large iron core and closeness to the Sun it affect the equator as it pulls the Sun’s equator at 4.1° per day to rotate in 26 days while the Sun at the poles rotate in 37 days. Between the equator and poles the time of rotation will move upwards from 26-37 days proportionally. Due to the spinning differential between the poles and equator it cause the magnetic lines on the Sun to bend and twist (go out of phase).

It takes 87.45 days for the poles and equator of the Sun to reach the same position in relation to each other. If we bring the Earth into the equation it will take 187 years for them all to reach the same position in relation to each other.

The loops on the Sun starts in the Poloidal field just below the convection zone and takes 5½-6 years to break through the surface and becomes visible as sunspots, meaning what we see on the surface lags by 5½-6 years (they were formed in the previous low period of our visible sunspot cycle at its high).

Due to the Sun reversing its North and South poles roughly every 11 years we need to look at a full cycle of 22 years for the Sun to reach the same point. In 1976 a German scientist “Stix” discover that if the background magnetic field is Northern, the sunspot active region will be Southern and vice-versa, but with an out of phase difference of 7 years at that time.

According to Prof Valentina Zharkova and her team of researchers contracted by the Royal Astronomical Society they basically rediscover it but with a 2½ years out of phase period in 2008.
She explains this by the two layers (dynamos) in the Sun between; “Poloidal field” and “Toroidal field” which come in correlating pairs with this offset between their magnetic waves created by Mercury.

As the waves start going out of phase the Sun will become more active as the difference between the phase shift in frequency cause the pairs to twist more and begin interacting with each other (like a shock/short in wires).
When these waves oppose each other (cancelling each other out) there is a significant reduction in solar activity. We are heading for this reduction period which will become obvious from 2022 onwards and will reach a low starting at 2030 for a period of around 30 years.

Earth Cycles to understand:

11.2 Year: (Schwabe Sun/Climate Cycle)

Our Sun goes through a variable cycle known as the “Schwabe Sunspot Cycle” which is used as the standard, by measuring its sunspot count with an average length of 11.2 years. The main players for controlling the activity on the Sun are the resonance between Earth/Moon and Venus in relation to the position of Jupiter that are mostly constrained between the 9.93 year spring tidal period of Jupiter and Saturn, and the 11.86 year tidal orbital period of Jupiter. It can however fluctuate between shorter 8 and longer 14 year periods with possible double peaks inside longer cycles depending on the Uranus and Neptune positions.
This cycle is proven not only for the last 400 years but also in 1000 years of historical records of "severe winters".
The sun switches its polarity between its magnetic North and South once every cycle around the peak periods we see which started at the previous low period but took that time to become visible as sunspots in the convection zone.
We need to recalculate our predictions with the Mercury effect in all warming/cooling cycles. Gravitational and magnetic stresses will still follow the Total (AM) but should have little to no effect on the output of the Sun if the Sunspots cancel each other due to the Mercury effect.

30-60 Years: (Jupiter-Saturn Sun/Climate Cycle)

The 30-60 year cycle of visible cooling and warming is an important player in food production on Earth that is linked to the Jupiter/Saturn motion and most apparent in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation data set and GISP2 Greenland ice core with a slow rising trend from the Little Ice Age about 400 years ago. This cycle becomes more prominent when Uranus/Neptune is closer together giving it an amplifying boost causing an (AMP) event.
In Earth years the Jupiter motion around the Sun is 11.9 years and Saturn 29.4 years while they reach the same relative alignment around the sun every 59.6 years.
The Sun’s (AM) swings between its high point when Jupiter and Saturn are together and its low point when they are opposing. When Uranus & Neptune are together they add to this which creates the highest highs and the lowest lows. This cycle is busy cooling down since the Jupiter/Saturn conjuncture in 2020 up to around 2050, when it will start heating up till 2080.
The 30 year cooling period are known for its icy and early winters and cool summers.

85 ± 15 Years: (Gleissberg Sun/Climate Cycle Spike)

This cycle is based on Sunspots groupings, and not the Sunspot numbers count, when they peak or hit a low with a great time variation in cycle length. With more spots grouping together the overall output of the Sun will be higher and believed to be an amplitude modulation of the 11-year cycle due to the (AM) between Saturn, Uranus and Neptune on the opposite side of Jupiter. The most detailed precisely dated part of the record extends back to 11,854 years B.P. Much of the evidence for existence of the cycle was established on the basis of aurora records. The bottom of the Gliessberg Cycle is with Uranus and Neptune opposing and seem to be heading for its peak from 2029 onwards but estimated at around 2046 in one study . Personally I do not see any significant influence this time around with the Mercury effect, causing the out of phase changes that will cause the Sun’s output to be low, even with other cyclic probabilities.
The cycle does not seem to be a serious player for long term effects, but just a warming spike when at its peak, and more cosmic radiation during its low. More like a short-term event than a long cycle of warming and cooling.

172-210 Years: (172-208 Suess Sun/Climate Cycle)

The 172-208 year Suess cycle is one of the most dominant and a “Major” cycle for climate change on Earth and linked to the Jovian planets Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune which fluctuate between the 172 Jose and 208 De Vries cycles. This cycle have a clear heating/cooling periods around 100 years for both parts and fit with changing weather patterns well documented in financial collapses, colder climates, civil wars, social unrests, and epidemic literature since 1148, 1320, 1491, 1663, 1835 and around 2000.
The 172 Jose cycle leads the way outside Grand Minimums and Maximums (GM’s) and the 208 year De Vries cycle comes to the foreground inside (GM’s) when the Uranus/Neptune combined strength is strong enough, to cause perturbations in the Jupiter/Saturn cycle with Saturn on the opposite side with the main driver the Uranus/Neptune conjunction (171.4 years). These conjunctions come in groups of disturbances usually in 3’s with each disturbance separated by around 40 years. However if al 3 are strong in one group, which are very rare, they normally produces a strong and lengthy grand minima like the Sporer and Maunder.
The longer-period variations such as the de Vries (208-year) cycle have high amplitudes during the (GM’s) sequences and are undetectable in between.
When looking at the Sunspot record which has more resolution than the proxy record it can be seen that the highest and lowest period of solar activity happens around the (AMP) events.
We reached the high around 2007-2009 therefore will reach the low from around 2100-2110 as we are entering a low (GM) event.

400 Years: (Conjuncture Cycle) – (documented by the Babylonians with a peak at 1200 years)

The 400 year cycle is a standalone cycle between Jupiter and Saturn conjunctures. They pass each other roughly every 20 years but it’s on very few occasions when the two celestial objects have the same right ascension, same declination and are close to each other in the sky. For near perfect triple conjunctions in which retrograde motion causes Jupiter to appear to pass Saturn on the sky three times in a zigzag fashion happens seldom. These events are called “transits” when Jupiter partially obscures Saturn or “occultations” when Jupiter completely covers Saturn. This double gravitational pull will influence the (CMSS).
The times in human history it peaked with intervals of 60 year in 7BC, (1563+1623), (2020 and will again in 2080), (2417 and 2477).

1 470 ± 500 Years: (Abrupt Events – Catastrophic Gravitational & Magnetic Stress Cycle)

Heinrich/Bond (Dansgaard–Oeschger) events do not have a climate signal nor are there consensus on the trigger for this cyclic event with different hypothesis from cosmic-radiation cycles causing volcanism and/or Atlantic ocean circulation and many more.
The reason I personally favour is the near square alignment formed by the Jovian planets every ±1500 years on one side of the sun. This gravitational and magnetic push/pull between the 4 largest planets and the Sun can cause the Earth’s crust to be influenced when passing between them, therefore the volcanism and Glaziers discharges found in studies at this cyclic event.
This abrupt cyclic events with a sudden decrease in global temperatures is however unmistakably evident and we should experience it from between 2023 through 2024 with the most likely date on 8 April 2024 during an eclipse on Earth. “Just to many myth stories about flooding not to be taken seriously and time to be away from any ocean – suggest a inland holiday in the mountains.”
It is also speculated that the Jovian planets could combined their influence forming a second magnetic field (ellipsoid) in our solar system during this period. Although weaker it will place Earth between two opposing fields during transit. Maybe that is why the Earth’s magnetic field is slowly weakening in the build-up to this position.
During the 8.2-kiloyear event, believed to be a 1,500-year event the atmospheric methane concentration decreased by 80 ppb, an emission reduction of 15%, by cooling and drying at a hemispheric scale. This will explain the final collapse of the Laurentide Ice Sheet and Meltwater pulse sea-level rise during a global cooling period for about 300 years. The ice entering the oceans and ocean circulation hypothesis also make sense in a sea level rise while the Earth is busy cooling.
Summing Up the Worldwide Physical Evidence:
The Ice Cores
Seabed Sediments
Lake Sediments
Cave Stalagmites
Fossilized Pollen
Boreholes
Tree Rings
Mountain Tree Line Elevations
Glacier Advances and Retreats
Miscellaneous Climate Proxies - Arctic Oscillation, fluctuation in atmospheric pressures, volcanoes and earthquakes.[/color=yellow]

Amazing info but somewhat of a dry read!

a reply to: choomsuba

Yip, agree.

Stopped copy/paste giving and it colour from my different cycle folders with the picture-upload not working

A security error prevent me from uploading pictures due to a risk on the upload page

a reply to: ICycle2

Great read, a lot of info to digest here.

Cheers!

Was just reading up on some space news about recent frequent solar activity and geomagnetic storms that are about to affect the Earth in the coming days.

Glad to see someone on this site draw the much needed attention to solar cycles, with solar cycle 25 starting December 2019 and ending in 2030, these are going to be some very interesting years.

Good work!

a reply to: ICycle2

Thanks for the time and effort you have put into this. These cycles are essential for life on Earth, we have been lucky to have got this far as a civilization, simply because the more benign times has allowed us the leisure to accumulate knowledge let's hope we don't blow it.

Agreed CF, we are distracted constantly by things here on earth when we could be watching the skys for the coming changes.

a reply to: CloneFarm1000

Great thread was always waiting for someone in science to say this. Buy cold weather gear, start rain barrels, plant a garden, raise some chickens; a lot of chickens and educate your self about the sun it is the energy source for all life on this planet.