Russia Will Be Forced To Declare War Against Ukraine

twitter.com...

Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov: “If Ukraine continues its provocations by attacking Russian cities, Russia will be forced to declare war against Ukraine”.

This is a laughable quote. It’s so….unconnected with reality.

My take is they are losing way more guys than they thought they would. They can’t officially force a full mobilization without declaring war. Losing several ships in a ground war. Losing several generals. Losing anywhere between 10-20 thousand troops. They are in trouble.

I’m guessing they will declare war if a peace agreement isn’t met soon enough in order to have a full mobilization to end this embarrassment for them.

Thoughts?

a reply to: PassiveSeeker
In Russia, it requires the Duma to vote to declare war. That’s why Putin is careful to call this a Special Military Operation (SMO). The President of Russia can declare an SMO on the recommendation of the Russian Security Council—which he controls and which he got them to do. I’m not sure he could get the Duma to declare war. Maybe he’s not too sure either.

a reply to: PassiveSeeker
My thought is: Underestimating ones' opponent is a good way to get your azz kicked. I find absolutely nothing funny about this war, and can't understand people cheering governments on to keep escalating the situation.

a reply to: nugget1

Getting involved in another couple's arguments is just stupid. You can always end up getting the blame.

Losing Generals sounds like a convenient way of cleaning house.

a reply to: PassiveSeeker

a reply to: Dalamax

I’ve actually had the same thought.

a reply to: PassiveSeeker

I don't know this for certain,it is just an idea, but I wonder if a declaration of war will allow Russia to use tactical nuclear weapons, where as at this point, as a special operation, they cannot, due to Russian laws...?

a reply to: Darkblade71

Zelenskyy and the CIA has done some foreshadowing. Even today.

thehill.com...

CIA Director today:

“Given the potential desperation of President Putin and the Russian leadership, given the setbacks that they’ve faced so far militarily, none of us can take lightly the threat posed by a potential resort to tactical nuclear weapons or low-yield nuclear weapons,” Burns said Thursday following a speech at Georgia Tech.

Zelensky today:

“They could do it, for them the life of the people [means] nothing,” Zelensky said. “We should think, not be afraid, be ready. But that is not a question … only for Ukraine but for all the world, I think so.”

originally posted by: 1947boomer
a reply to: PassiveSeeker
In Russia, it requires the Duma to vote to declare war. That’s why Putin is careful to call this a Special Military Operation (SMO). The President of Russia can declare an SMO on the recommendation of the Russian Security Council—which he controls and which he got them to do. I’m not sure he could get the Duma to declare war. Maybe he’s not too sure either.


www.rferl.org...

The bill envisions penalties of up to 10 years in prison for individuals convicted of the offense. The penalty for the distribution of "false news" about the Russian Army that leads to "serious consequences" rises to up to 15 years in prison.

I don’t know. They seem pretty on board for what the Kremlin wants

edit on 15-4-2022 by PassiveSeeker because: (no reason given)

originally posted by: Darkblade71
a reply to: PassiveSeeker

I don't know this for certain,it is just an idea, but I wonder if a declaration of war will allow Russia to use tactical nuclear weapons, where as at this point, as a special operation, they cannot, due to Russian laws...?

I was reading an article last month (can’t find it right now) that Russian law says that nuclear weapons can only be released after confirmation of a nuclear blast on Russian soil.

a reply to: 1947boomer

In 1993, Russia dropped a pledge against first use of nuclear weapons made in 1982 by Leonid Brezhnev. In 2000, a Russian military doctrine stated that Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons "in response to a large-scale conventional aggression".

en.m.wikipedia.org...


Who determines if large scale or not?

Pakistan, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States,[20] and France[21] say that they will use nuclear weapons against either nuclear or non-nuclear states only in the case of invasion or other attack against their territory or against one of their allies

a reply to: 1947boomer

Maybe the Duma will have some accidents if they don't do it.

a reply to: 1947boomer

That would be an interesting read if you can find it.

I have been telling my coworkers since the beginning of this invasion that I expect Russia to use at least one tactical nuke in this war, in an attempt to force NATO to back off because NATO will only stay silent for so long..

I have been watching this as time goes on, and wondering how this will play out.

a reply to: OccamsRazor04

Russia and NATO reserve first nuclear strike doctrine.

originally posted by: anonentity
a reply to: nugget1

Getting involved in another couple's arguments is just stupid. You can always end up getting the blame.

How naive is Zelenskyy?

a reply to: Darkblade71

Russia reserves the right for nuclear strike when conventionally attacked. They say large scale attack, but what makes it large and who decides?

Their reasoning for declaring war is going to be attacks on Russian soil. Posted the link in my comment above.

a reply to: Darkblade71

All that would do is make every other neighboring country be willing to make any change necessary to join NATO. Their desire to join NATO already went from a 6 to an 8, soon it will be a 10.

originally posted by: 1947boomer

originally posted by: Darkblade71
a reply to: PassiveSeeker

I don't know this for certain,it is just an idea, but I wonder if a declaration of war will allow Russia to use tactical nuclear weapons, where as at this point, as a special operation, they cannot, due to Russian laws...?

I was reading an article last month (can’t find it right now) that Russian law says that nuclear weapons can only be released after confirmation of a nuclear blast on Russian soil.

Here we go. Russia will use a first strike as de-escalation. Same source I posted.

The new military doctrine of 2014 does not depart from this stance.[32] The 2020 Presidential Executive Order on Nuclear Deterrence in Article 4 uses the wording: "deterrence of a potential adversary from aggression against the Russian Federation and/or its allies. In the event of a military conflict, this Policy provides for the prevention of an escalation of military actions and their termination on conditions that are acceptable for the Russian Federation and/or its allies."[

Yea declaring war makes Russian nuclear use legal in Russian law.

a reply to: PassiveSeeker

Well, since it already is a war, they might as well call it what it is.

I would think Putin would decide what large scale is,
and I don't think it would have to be that large...

Most likely in his mind, it has already happened.

A declared war means they can target infrastructure that is not directly tied to the military. electricity, water, communications, road systems, and some other things.

Imagine it as what we did during shock and awe campaigns.

Ah, but I am obviously wrong because a genius of war and international law told me so yesterday when I said a declared war opens up options/actions they can take.