If AGW caused tornados, then is cold weather proof AGW is over?

a reply to: network dude

It's impossible to have a rational discussion with the climate change crowd.

They are convinced that if we make politicians wealthier, the weather will change.

I mean, really. How can anyone with an ounce of honesty and intelligence debate this crap!

We already struck out when it comes to managing climate change. The glaciers are all going to melt, the sea levels will rise, billions of people will die or become displaced, civilization will collapse, and roaming bands of ravagers will eat you and take your stuff.

Good luck everyone! You've got between 20 and 1000 years to prepare.

a reply to: network dude

Of course not. When it's hot, it's because of AGW. When we broke record lows this past February and almost the entire South was shutdown for a week with -15 to 10 degree days and record snowfall, that was also because of AGW.

I learned quickly that the left's infatuation with AGW is just as brain deteriorating as their infatuation with racism. Both are so bad that they fabricate stories to tell the world it's true.

a reply to: joejack1949

I am prepared. I am sitting on future beach front right now.

So sad about all those rich elites though. They're all getting flooded out. You'd think if they really believed the crap they shoveled, they'd be in here trying to buy me out.

originally posted by: Alien Abduct
a reply to: network dude

Earth’s temperature has risen by 0.14° F (0.08° C) per decade since 1880, and the rate of warming over the past 40 years is more than twice that: 0.32° F (0.18° C) per decade since 1981.

2020 was the second-warmest year on record based on NOAA’s temperature data, and land areas were record warm.

Averaged across land and ocean, the 2020 surface temperature was 1.76° F (0.98° Celsius) warmer than the twentieth-century average of 57.0°F (13.9°C) and 2.14 ̊F (1.19 ̊C) warmer than the pre-industrial period (1880-1900).

Despite a late-year La Niña event that cooled a wide swath of the tropical Pacific Ocean, 2020 came just 0.04 ̊ Fahrenheit (0.02 ̊Celsius) shy of tying 2016 for warmest year on record.

The 10 warmest years on record have occurred since 2005.

From 1900 to 1980 a new temperature record was set on average every 13.5 years; from 1981–2019, a new record was set every 3 years.

source

What about the record lows? People in Chicago, a few years ago, were freezing to death within seconds because they breathed in the -65F air.

Just FYI, some numbers on December tornados in the country.

a reply to: ketsuko

The elite don't care about you now and they wont care about you later. If they want your land, they wont be buying it.

originally posted by: joejack1949
We already struck out when it comes to managing climate change. The glaciers are all going to melt, the sea levels will rise, billions of people will die or become displaced, civilization will collapse, and roaming bands of ravagers will eat you and take your stuff.

Good luck everyone! You've got between 20 and 1000 years to prepare.

TWENTY YEARS??? Try 8 years, according to AOC. She thinks we'll be dead by 2030, but of course since Biden was elected, I think we might have saved ourselves 4 years.

The reality of it, however, is that by the time the climate effects humans to that nature, our descendants would have to look back hundreds of thousands of years, if not millions, to even know we existed. By then, our civilization will more than likely have died off and a new civilization of humans will be here. We'll be buried in the sands of time as the civilizations that were here before us that we'll never know existed.

originally posted by: network dude

originally posted by: xandback
Weather is cold today as u said, its what you feel everyday, climate is statistics over the time. Stop pretending you don't know that

I even said that in the OP, did you read it?

My question is how can we use weather to validate AGW, when it's all about climate, as you said? Any thoughts?

Sure.

You compare the weather you measure on any given day (air temp, pressure, wind, precipitation, cloud cover, etc.) with the statistical trends of those measurements as determined from a large number of those measurements taken over a suitably long time window (decades, centuries, millennia). Those statistical trends are what we refer to as "climate" and are usually characterized by an average value for one of those variables (say, temperature) together with a range of variability around that average value. For example, the daily average temperature in Raleigh, NC for December is 34.4 F, but the record high is about 73 F and the record low is about 0 F. From:

en.wikipedia.org...

That is a variability of about 73 degrees around the mean which can be taken as approximately the 3-sigma range of "normal" temperatures.

Now let's say the average global temperature increases by 2 F from this baseline. Does that mean that it will never get below freezing in Raleigh? No. The December average temperature will go from 34.4 F to 36.4 F and the 3-sigma low temperature would go from 0 F to 2 F. Still obviously cold enough to freeze and snow occasionally. So the fact that you could have a 2 F average temperature rise does not in any way mean that you would not continue to experience some cold days in Raliegh.

Meanwhile, the mean daily temperature of the hottest month of the year (August) would go from about 79 F to 81 F. Also, Spring would start a little earlier and Autumn would start a little later.

In other words global atmospheric warming means the climate statistics would start deviating measurably from the previous 3-sigma values.

One can apply the same principle to other measurable parameters such as frequency of tornados.

From 1950 to about 1955, the average number of tornados in the US was about 500 per year with a variability of about +/- 100 per year.

www.frontiersin.org...

The average number of tornados per year increased steadily, reaching a maximum of about 1200 in the 2000 - 2010 decade and now averaging about 1000 per year, with a variability of more like 200 per year. The current statistics for frequency of tornados are clearly way outside the 3-sigma values for times as recently as 30 years ago. This is exactly what climate modeling predicts, by the way--more energy going into severe wind events (mean value increasing) and more extreme events (more variability).

a reply to: network dude

I live in Florida, what is this colder weather you speak of? It is in the 80s F here.


What the heck is AGW?

a reply to: network dude

I live in Florida, what is this colder weather you speak of? It is in the 80s F here.


What the heck is AGW?

a reply to: ketsuko

These people have no idea how the real bad storms form. The colder the cold front is as it clashes with warmer weather, the more horrible the storm. Vice versa for the warm fronts moving into cold air. Look at Bowling Green, KY last Saturday... Started out 72 at 12AM that morning, ended up 28 before the day was over.

a reply to: ketsuko


Growing up in NM, we never had a tornado. Wind yes, lots of it. We had an occasional ‘dust devil’ that maybe blew some clothes off a line, or loose shingles. Are they counting these as tornados on this map, I wonder? CA looks suspiciously like they are counting ‘water spouts’.

a reply to: 1947boomer

en.wikipedia.org...

it seems we have had them for quite some time, some year more than others, some storms, much stronger than others.
If your theory is right, why did the east coast have such an easy hurricane season? Or can't you predict that as well with your AGW models?

the point is, this is all weather, not climate. You can't use it one way, then bitch when others do the same, it's disingenuous.

a reply to: mblahnikluver

I am from the great northland, many miles from you. In the frozen tundra of North Carolina, it was chilly this morning. And AGW is like Climate Change in that it's a theory about the future based on poor models and ideas.

originally posted by: LSU2018

originally posted by: Alien Abduct
a reply to: network dude

Earth’s temperature has risen by 0.14° F (0.08° C) per decade since 1880, and the rate of warming over the past 40 years is more than twice that: 0.32° F (0.18° C) per decade since 1981.

2020 was the second-warmest year on record based on NOAA’s temperature data, and land areas were record warm.

Averaged across land and ocean, the 2020 surface temperature was 1.76° F (0.98° Celsius) warmer than the twentieth-century average of 57.0°F (13.9°C) and 2.14 ̊F (1.19 ̊C) warmer than the pre-industrial period (1880-1900).

Despite a late-year La Niña event that cooled a wide swath of the tropical Pacific Ocean, 2020 came just 0.04 ̊ Fahrenheit (0.02 ̊Celsius) shy of tying 2016 for warmest year on record.

The 10 warmest years on record have occurred since 2005.

From 1900 to 1980 a new temperature record was set on average every 13.5 years; from 1981–2019, a new record was set every 3 years.

source

What about the record lows? People in Chicago, a few years ago, were freezing to death within seconds because they breathed in the -65F air.

We're looking at global average temperature. Chicago's temperatures were added in there but apparently weren't enough to bring down the rest of the world enough to make the global average go down instead of up like it did.

originally posted by: Alien Abduct

originally posted by: LSU2018

originally posted by: Alien Abduct
a reply to: network dude

Earth’s temperature has risen by 0.14° F (0.08° C) per decade since 1880, and the rate of warming over the past 40 years is more than twice that: 0.32° F (0.18° C) per decade since 1981.

2020 was the second-warmest year on record based on NOAA’s temperature data, and land areas were record warm.

Averaged across land and ocean, the 2020 surface temperature was 1.76° F (0.98° Celsius) warmer than the twentieth-century average of 57.0°F (13.9°C) and 2.14 ̊F (1.19 ̊C) warmer than the pre-industrial period (1880-1900).

Despite a late-year La Niña event that cooled a wide swath of the tropical Pacific Ocean, 2020 came just 0.04 ̊ Fahrenheit (0.02 ̊Celsius) shy of tying 2016 for warmest year on record.

The 10 warmest years on record have occurred since 2005.

From 1900 to 1980 a new temperature record was set on average every 13.5 years; from 1981–2019, a new record was set every 3 years.

source

What about the record lows? People in Chicago, a few years ago, were freezing to death within seconds because they breathed in the -65F air.

We're looking at global average temperature. Chicago's temperatures were added in there but apparently weren't enough to bring down the rest of the world enough to make the global average go down instead of up like it did.

All right. So I'll put it to you.

Tornados are caused by extreme warm/moist air clashing with extreme cold air. If global temps are going to be overall warmer, then the atmosphere is overall more stable leading to *less* tornados and *less* extreme ones when they happen.

So how can you call this super severe one a product of global warming?

a reply to: ketsuko

So how can you call this super severe one a product of global warming?

I didn't.

Fact:
There are too few data before 1880 for scientists to estimate average temperatures for the entire planet. That is not even a scratch on world history.

Everything is cyclic, with endless variation in granularity.

We have no clue about what particular set of cycles we are in, yet we think we can predict it too a degree that allows us to violates peoples rights and cause global economic chaos.

Just another example of how power corrupts by exploiting the un-educated.

Here's a very good video that goes into the dynamics of tornado formation and tackles the subject of whether or not climate change was to blame for this.