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originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: musicismagic
The one to worry about is Taal in the Philippines. It's massive and has been getting steadily more active for a while without letting off any steam in an eruptive way. It has been put on yellow alert several times with no result. It is big enough to rival Tambora if it really goes. Odds are it won't do that ... but ...
More immediately, it would absolutely devastate a wide swath in the local area with death and destruction.
This part is something that I have hoped that I would never have to write, and I hope with all of my heart that I am wrong in this case.
The 234 square kilometre caldera of Bulkang Taal (Taal=Pure or True) would to most people not look like a volcano at all, instead it looks like a beautiful and peaceful lake with an island in the middle. If you look at the island you will find another lake, and that lake would definitely give things away since it is merrily boiling all the time.
Nobody who is reading this will have missed that Bulkang Taal, The True Volcano, have been active since 2020. The local authorities have at least twice raised the alert level to 3 on a 5-degree scale, and with good reasons.
There have been minor phreatic blasts in the lake as water have come into contact with fresh intruding magma, the gas flow has increased at times to levels where the capital of Manilla was inundated with hazardous vog, there have been widespread and substantial uplift and caldera extension.
And there have been numerous earthquake swarms, both of volcanic type earthquakes, and tectonic rock breaking types.
What is giving me reasons to be less than happy here is that the activity has been going on since March of 2019 and since then the activity and the data at hand has slowly increased in severity.
For a lack of better words, it has been like seeing a giant slowly wake up, put on the clothes, having coffee, and then going out in the garden starting to build up a mountain of gunpowder. The longer it is building up that metaphorical mountain of gunpowder, the worse it could be when the fuse is finally lit.
Long runups like this is generally not a good thing around volcanoes of this size and type. If it erupts fairly fast after onset the eruption will most often be manageable, but years of building to an eruption? Rarely a good sign.
Currently I would not be surprised if the eruption when it finally occurs will be in the range of the eruptions during the 18th century, or even as big as the 1754 eruption. As such they would be a disaster for the area in and around Bulkang Taal.
What could we expect from such an eruption? At least 1 meter of ash covering the downwind shores of Lake Taal and quite a bit of disruption to the economy of the Philippines.
A more unlikely scenario, but that is well within the capacity of Bulkang Taal, is a larger eruption. It is here prudent to remember that the entirety of the scenic lake has been created by a number of eruptions ranging from VEI-6 to VEI-7. The sad part is that the longer the runup-phase last, the greater the risk increases of something like this happening.
Currently the risk of something horrendous happening is perhaps 1 percent, but even that is an uncomfortable number indeed.
I do not like being restless volcano calderas like The Pure Volcano. Not at all.
originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: musicismagic
The one to worry about is Taal in the Philippines. It's massive and has been getting steadily more active for a while without letting off any steam in an eruptive way. It has been put on yellow alert several times with no result. It is big enough to rival Tambora if it really goes. Odds are it won't do that ... but ...
More immediately, it would absolutely devastate a wide swath in the local area with death and destruction.