The Odds of a Beneficial Mutation is 1 in 10 Vigintillion -astronomically low-

Part of the genetic code is used to make proteins for various biological functions. These protein-coding sequences are highly regulated and efficient. Evolutionary theory supposes that these sequences came to be through random mutations, yet research shows that this is simply not a realistic solution.

this paper found that the odds of generating one functional domain from a random mutation are 1 in 10 vigintillion (1 in 10^64 exponent)

or:

1 in 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

For comparison, the odds of winning the lottery are about

1 in 14,000,000

This 1 in 10 vigintillion chance doesn't even mean you will get a totally functional protein! it is simply referring to a sub-region of a portion of a protein.



This above is a protein. Do you notice the abundance of folds that it has? This 1 in 10 vigintillion is referring to just one of the many folds required for a normal protein to function. So in order to get a fully novel functioning protein, you would need to hit this 1 in 10 vigintillion chance over and over again. As you can see the odds of this are unimaginably low. Then multiply this with the fact that humans have between 20,000-25,000 proteins coded in their genome, you realize the multitude of miracles that would be required for such a complex coding system to occur through random chance.


Evolution is dead. Leave the sinking ship behind lol

Evolutionist be like:

evolution and whatever you're proposing are unrelated phenomena

Having a hard time following the part of your logic that inserts an exclusion principle, where one does not exist.

This makes me conclude that
1# there are long ways to the nearest intelligent nabour in space
2#the universe is a big place, you need a lot of planets in the right place to win that pot.
3#we are freaks of nature
4#or this is not random and we where made by someone, god ? alien ? both ?

originally posted by: Archivalist
evolution and whatever you're proposing are unrelated phenomena

Evolution is based on the genome mutating to code for new proteins. That's exactly what the article is referring to as this low probability event

originally posted by: Spacespider

4#or this is not random and we where made by someone, god ? alien ? both ?

It seems inescapable at this point to conclude that we come from a higher Intelligence.

a reply to: cooperton

Question, the 1 in 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 chance is in play every time a baby is made ?

Would selective breeding not increase the chances a lot ?
Like we bread wolves into cute little dogs ?

I mean do we not already do this ?, men get taller because a majority of woman choose taller men over small men ?

Yeah good thread, interesting information. I'm writing it all down.

a reply to: cooperton
Humans are evolving

It can be seen in every thing

Do you know how long it took for someone to break the 4 minute mile
Records go all the time, that's physical evolution

There are millions painters alive now that are better than DaVinci or any of the greats
People can paint photorealistic now
Evolution in perception.
Humans are gettin taller and brains are growing and so are the craniums

Jesus was a midget

originally posted by: DAVG1980
a reply to: cooperton
Humans are evolving

It can be seen in every thing

Do you know how long it took for someone to break the 4 minute mile
Records go all the time, that's physical evolution

There are millions painters alive now that are better than DaVinci or any of the greats
People can paint photorealistic now
Evolution in perception.
Humans are gettin taller and brains are growing and so are the craniums

Jesus was a midget

Evolution in the sense that one species evolves into another not training harder to run faster or eating better food to grow taller or passing on a skill, evolution as in evolution.
Oh and it's been documented that Christ was around 5ft 11 inches tall, tall for the times yes.

a reply to: cooperton

So no mutant healing factor or teleportation like in X-Men??

a reply to: Necrobile

Ultimately that is the agenda here. Transhumanism, escape from our biological fate because it offends our ego to suffer the mortal condition.

1 in 10 vigintillion odds for something that occurs 10 vigintillion times every millisecond doesn't seem crazy.

The human body consists of some 37.2 trillion cells. (Pretty much all of them can/do produce proteins)

The human body produces/has the potential to produce about 20,000~ different proteins. (This number is at the high end of the approximation, but at the lowest end, this number is still in the thousands, easily.)

Big old number here (137,999,999,999,999,983,616)
That's roughly how many albumin protein molecules you produce per day, if you weigh about 150lb/70kg.
Literally just ONE protein.
Your body can make thousands of different proteins.

That's just ONE protein, from just ONE single human, in ONE day.

There are 7 billion of us on Earth, living 365 days per year, producing thousands of different proteins, every second of every day.

vigintillion is starting to seem a little smaller to me

You. Yes you. You produce over 100 quintillion albumin protein molecules per day. I haven't even done the math for a second protein. If you're not convinced this is all dogwash at this point, I don't know why one more extra big number would help you.

By the time you calculate out for total species abundance, protein production, and time, this 1 in 10 vigintillion number might even seem insignificant in itself, beyond the fact that it's just an exercise in big numberism.

"It has been estimated that there are 100 trillion individual bacterial cells in a single human body, and a nonillion (10^30) individual bacterial and archaeal cells on Earth, the researchers wrote May 2 in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. "

I'd love to seek out protein per cell numbers, but I really don't think I care enough.
Cars can't exist because of astronomical odds. Old life had to die millions of years ago, just to become oil(hydrocarbons), so we could make internal combustion engines. Yet... Here we are... Cars abound.

a reply to: Smigg

You think one species just evolves into the other, like one day the wake up with wings that weren't there. It takes 100s of thousands of years to rid myself of those pesky six digits I used to have

originally posted by: DAVG1980
a reply to: Smigg

You think one species just evolves into the other, like one day the wake up with wings that weren't there. It takes 100s of thousands of years to rid myself of those pesky six digits I used to have

Yeah, the completely ignore time and can't conceptualize how long it takes for things to change. They think it just happens over night. The human mind can't conceptualize how long 1 million years is in terms of time and how many iterations and evolutions a species could go through in that time frame.

a reply to: DAVG1980

More accurately, it typically requires dozens of generations of reproduction to diverge into a new species.

the odds of a beneficial politician are even lower

a reply to: cooperton

Sorry, wrong thread.

a reply to: Smigg

Most of the hits say Jebus was likely 5ft 5in... The average height at the time

Which was the point anyway

Where did you get 5 11 from anyway

a reply to: TzarChasm

I once watched a BBC documentary where they opened up a cave that had never seen light and they found this pool with fish like tadpoles that didn't have eyes because they didn't require them, there was no light. But when they were exposed to light they developed eyes. I cant remember how long it took but it wasn't days, I'm sure it was a matter of hours
I also once watched one on BBC that showed that organisms under the sea were actually repairing the ozone layer

8 can't find any of those docus anymore

I wonder how humans would evolve without sunlight... Like if Bil Gates blacked out the sun forever, how would we evolve

originally posted by: DAVG1980
a reply to: Smigg

Most of the hits say Jebus was likely 5ft 5in... The average height at the time

Which was the point anyway

Where did you get 5 11 from anyway

Lol.