The lethality and virality of the Delta strain

Just over a month ago I wrote a thread showing data which strongly suggests Covid-19 is seasonal. In that thread someone pointed out how the UK was experiencing a wave of the Delta strain but it wasn't winter. Granted, the UK often has poor weather, but I noticed several nations were experiencing an out-of-season wave. In that thread I also made a prediction that the wave in Australia would be over by the end of winter, just like the wave before it.

We are still on track for this wave to end some time in the next few weeks, even the Australian government is now making that prediction. However, what I didn't take into account is just how effective the Delta strain is at spreading, to the point where it can now cause waves outside of the traditional flu season. It seems we are now just reaching the peak, so it might take a little bit longer for this wave to end than I predicted.

The media often talks about how the Delta strain propagates so rapidly, but what they neglect to mention is it's clearly evolving to become less lethal. Which makes sense because viruses have an evolutionary pressure to become less deadly to their host but also more effective propagators at the same time, that's why most pandemics in the past ended quickly. However it's now clear some powerful people want to drag this out forever.

I predicted several months ago that we'll end up with Covid strains which are immune to most vaccines and extremely effective at spreading, although not very deadly, and the data indicates that's precisely what we have ended up with. The following charts were created by overlaying the case numbers (blue line) onto the death numbers (gray line), and by doing so we can see how deaths have dropped despite the rapid spread of Delta.



We can see that this most recent wave in Australia is by far the largest wave we've gone through, and it has also been the most stressful wave by far because the restrictions and rules have been more strict than ever before. We went through those first two waves with virtually no rules at all, most places didn't even make people wear masks in stores. Now I can't even walk into some stores with a mask on, unless I need essential items.

We have to wear a mask when outside even if in the middle of a field with no people around. We have to sign in to every store we visit so that tracers can know exactly when and where everyone was at all times. Now they're saying only the double vaccinated will be allowed to do things like attend sports games or restaurant dining. They are also pressuring businesses to enforce similar rules upon their customers, and some will probably do it.







What we see in pretty much all of these charts, is that Covid-19 starts off being quite deadly, the death curve is above the case curve during the initial wave. Then what we see in the 2nd wave is the curves start to meet each other, and now in the most recent wave we can see the death curve has dropped well below the case curve, indicating the virus is now much less deadly despite having the capacity to infect more people.

Another interesting question we can ask is whether the vaccine may be responsible for the lower death rates in this most recent wave, and it could be playing some role. However it certainly cannot account for the consistent drop in lethality over time, even before any considerable fraction of the population had been vaccinated. Israel also has one of the highest vaccination rates, but the death rate hasn't dropped as much as other places.

Note: Keep in mind that the case and death curves are not scaled the same, only a fraction of the cases result in deaths. So if the blue line and the gray line are at the same height it doesn't mean the same number of people who caught Covid-19 also died of Covid-19, the y-axis is just scaled so we can compare the curves more easily. I didn't scale it myself, Google does that automatically.

Move over Delta the mu is here, already infecting in the states and this one is bypassing the two first jabs.

So Delta is old news now. Already the CDC and fascist faucy is prepping the people for the new variant, you know that one that will kill people during the Flu season.

Interestingly I see that when the jabs started so the covid infections. But hey I am just a crazy lady that believes in fairy tales.

Whehhhew!

I thought u meant Delta 8! Totally different thing. Carry on.


No derailment meant. Just honest reaction, didn’t mean to bring attention to legal weed in Texas at all.

Something else worth mentioning about the data for Australia, is how the 3rd wave started to grow exponentially even though the curve started off less steep than the 2nd wave. In my last thread about Covid-19 being seasonal, I wrote "this 3rd wave is likely to be smaller and shorter lived so I think it will be mostly over in a month", because the data at that time showed a less steep slope than the 2nd wave. Then very shortly after I posted that thread, we started to see the exponential growth, which I mostly attribute to the enhanced propagation abilities of Delta. However, it was also the time period when many people started getting the 2nd shot, and I can't help but wonder if that exponential curve is in some way influenced by the vaccine. Is there any evidence to suggest the vaccine will cause a positive result on a Covid-19 test?

a reply to: ChaoticOrder

So the virus is doing what a virus does ... it starts off at it's deadliest, tapers down a bit, then surges again to hit the rest of the population, tapers down again, and then loses strength but in a desperate attempt to stay alive compensates it's 'strength' for speed of spreading...

When this whole thing first started I wasn't very educated on how a virus works. And that's exactly what I read almost two years back now. That is basically how Spanish flu trended.

This most current wave is dominantly the 'Delta variant', which has spread around the world like wildfire, where as in the second wave it was multiple strains popping up all over the place. Now it's just one, I can bet this is the beginning of the end of the 'pandemic' aspect, and it's going to become endemic in isolated populations.

originally posted by: ChaoticOrder
Something else worth mentioning about the data for Australia, is how the 3rd wave started to grow exponentially even though the curve started off less steep than the 2nd wave. In my last thread about Covid-19 being seasonal, I wrote "this 3rd wave is likely to be smaller and shorter lived so I think it will be mostly over in a month", because the data at that time showed a less steep slope than the 2nd wave. Then very shortly after I posted that thread, we started to see the exponential growth, which I mostly attribute to the enhanced propagation abilities of Delta. However, it was also the time period when many people started getting the 2nd shot, and I can't help but wonder if that exponential curve is in some way influenced by the vaccine. Is there any evidence to suggest the vaccine will cause a positive result on a Covid-19 test?

I don't think we can go along no more with statistics, or numbers. The 3 things only should be honestly brought to our attention is this:

1. Those in the hosital
2. Those that still have long term side affects from SARS Covid 2
3. Those that have TRULY died due to SARS Covid 2

a reply to: ChaoticOrder

I don’t think so, the vaccine or some of them only encode for the spike and those associated proteins. So that segment I guess could come up in the screening, if they test for it. I’m not sure of the specific targets. But the screening test should also look for other sequences that generate other proteins. They look for and target sites that should be unique to the virus.

There are groups showing that portions of the viral genome, protein generating genes, can incorporate into our cells and then be expressed through transposable elements with a reverse transcriptase like action. There’s also the potential impact of carrying these variants and not showing symptoms because your immune cells recognize it from the vaccine or getting the virus at some point and they keep it at bay even though it is still reproducing in tissue.

I think it’s a coincidence combined with spread and everyone just getting tired of everything. I wonder if vaccinated people are more likely to get tested. Could be an interesting study.

a reply to: ChaoticOrder

Perhaps, because the numbers elsewhere are hard for many to appreciate, the instance of the outbreak in New Zealand, and how things have progressed in the short term, would clarify things.

Prior to the outbreak, there were no known community cases in New Zealand.

The outbreak has been believed to be traceable to a male tourist from Sydney, who only had very brief exposure to the public, and the suspected transmission event was air-borne, over the space of a meter and a half, for a duration of about 17 seconds, as an automatic door closed at a quarantine facility.

In 16 days, the outbreak has accumulated about 821 people who have tested positive. 40 are currently hospitalized, six of them are in intensive care, and four of them are on ventilators, one has died.

A quite strict lock-down has been in place from the first day that the outbreak was identified, and for the last three days, the number of daily cases seem to have reduced and then plateaued. This is hopeful as it shows that, should no other additional factor come into play, a zero COVID-19 community goal is achievable.

In general mutated strains are more infectious but less deadly.

Could it be that the media is attributing the fact delta is less deadly to the vaccines and not reality?

originally posted by: Zitterbewegung

In general mutated strains are more infectious but less deadly.

Could it be that the media is attributing the fact delta is less deadly to the vaccines and not reality?

A strain that is 10% less deadly for a set population, but 50% more contagious, will kill more people than a deadlier strain.

a reply to: Zitterbewegung

It does seem to be the case for the other big 4 coronaviruses. One thing that does concern me, especially this winter is some type of recombination event with 2 of these variants. Imagine if it increased lethality to 5%, 10%, even more? Or randomly changed an amino acid to make it knock cell based antiviral activity down completely. It’s surprisingly close to both of those which is odd but it’s what they do.

Antigenic drift and shift will make this thing seasonal and endemic. Most likely just another cold that spreads easily like the other coronaviruses as we get used to it and it sacrificed it’s killing ability for guaranteed reproduction. We will always chase it with vaccines unless we can get a universal vaccine into our own cells. That’s going to be something many don’t like because it’s most likely going to involve genetics.

Funny how the variants/deaths coincide perfectly vaccine uptake,
Including myocarditis

a reply to: TheAMEDDDoc

I believe the right approach is to find something that prevents the spike protein binding with the ACE2 enzyme.

Even if the body is fighting off the spike protein via vaccines, the spike protein still can attack the brain, kidneys, lungs, testes, via the ACE2 enzyme.

Wait! OMG! WTF! look!

"Ivermectin Docks to the SARS-CoV-2 Spike Receptor-binding Domain Attached to ACE2 "

"Conclusion: The ivermectin docking we identified may interfere with the attachment of the spike to the human cell membrane. Clinical trials now underway should determine whether ivermectin is an effective treatment for SARS-Cov2 infection. "

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov...

Winter is coming
The goose is getting fat.
Those who got the jabs,
Gonna die like a rat.

If you aint got a Pfizer.
a J & J will do.
If you aint for either,
Theres a booster for you!

originally posted by: chr0naut

originally posted by: Zitterbewegung

In general mutated strains are more infectious but less deadly.

Could it be that the media is attributing the fact delta is less deadly to the vaccines and not reality?

A strain that is 10% less deadly for a set population, but 50% more contagious, will kill more people than a deadlier strain.

Classic example of that is rhinovirus. It is so common it's pretty crazy.

a reply to: musicismagic

I fully agree, time to focus on reality.

a reply to: chr0naut

Prior to the outbreak, there were no known community cases in New Zealand.

The data shows New Zealand has had a couple of cases here and there almost every day since the pandemic began, so I have no idea what you are talking about. The recent wave in New Zealand is clearly getting so large because it's the Delta variant, like most places currently going through a wave. It's pretty funny though that you're still going on about the zero Covid dream in NZ...

originally posted by: TritonTaranis
Funny how the variants/deaths coincide perfectly vaccine uptake,
Including myocarditis

This data is for the US:

New weekly cases declined significantly after a peak during the week of 11 January 2021, and reached a minimum on the week of 28 June 2021, then began to rise again once the Delta strain began to spread.

Vaccinations started and ramped up until reaching a peak on the week of 12 April 2021. Then vaccinations began to decline to a minimum on the week of 24 July 2021, and then began to rise again from then. The rise in vaccinations was coincident with the rise in weekly new cases from the Delta strain.

Between the peak of vaccinations, and the rise in new cases, was a period of approximately two months.

coronavirus.jhu.edu...

originally posted by: chr0naut

originally posted by: Zitterbewegung

In general mutated strains are more infectious but less deadly.

Could it be that the media is attributing the fact delta is less deadly to the vaccines and not reality?

A strain that is 10% less deadly for a set population, but 50% more contagious, will kill more people than a deadlier strain.

The Delta variant is killing a lot less people as the data shows, and seems to be almost 20-40% more contagious. So it must be a lot more than 10% less deadly.

a reply to: chr0naut

Has to do with seasonality of coronavirus. Coronavirus is always minimum in July and maximum in December. This is true year after year.