Delta Has Changed the Pandemic Risk Calculus

After reading this idiotic article you have to come a sensation was it worth getting the vax or not? because after reading the article you have to come another conclusion to all of this.

Are they just manipulating with all of us? while giving you the manipulating of freedom? and safety?


Delta Has Changed the Pandemic Risk Calculus

If you’re confused about what you can do right now, you should be.

Right at the top of the article the false sense of security.

In the article now they un vaccinated arent a piority the un vaccinated kids and youth are the ones spreading it.

But as COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations have roared back, concerns about breakthrough cases among the vaccinated and increased transmissibility among kids have muddied a lot of people’s ability to gauge their own day-to-day risk, just as they’d begun to venture back out into the world and hug, eat, and laugh in the same airspace together again. In some ways, pandemic life is more confusing than ever.

The article calls for further segregation. Which is not surprising. And it looks political. Ah so the covid cases are now surges because a number of red states had refused to take in the vax mandates and vax passports?

Unvaccinated people tend to be clustered both geographically and socially in the United States, and so national or even state-level rates of vaccination are not terribly useful in understanding personal risk. The catastrophic spikes in infection currently devastating places with low vaccination rates, such as southern Louisiana and southeastern Missouri, change how even vaccinated people in those places should think about socializing or traveling, relative to their counterparts in places with high community buy-in on vaccines.

dont be human. dont visit your family dont visit your cousin’s new baby the week after attending an indoor concert with a thousand screaming people.

Right now, the best that most people can do is continue to control whichever straightforward variables they can—get vaccinated, sit outside when possible, choose places that require proof of vaccination over those that don’t, avoid visiting Grandma or your cousin’s new baby the week after attending an indoor concert with a thousand screaming people, get a test if your throat is sore.

The last paragraph of the article just goes to show that the trust in these mRNA vaxs and others had fallen. They are basically we still dont know what is happening with Delta.

Yet Delta is behaving a bit like the new flu. get a test if your throat is sore? even the common cold and flu have a sore throat. At the end of the day its like this is looking controlling people then over a health crisis.

Something about this whole covid thing doesn't feel right.

a reply to: HawkEyi

because after reading the article you have to come another conclusion to all of this.

You didn't explain why.

Delta is more transmissible than Alpha. This means the R factor is higher. This means that one person who is infected can infect more people than Alpha did.

The vaccines were never claimed to be able to completely stop infection or transmission but evidence showed that (with Alpha) it did both to some degree.

It is clearly apparent that the vaccines greatly reduce the risk of severe disease.

originally posted by: HawkEyi
Something about this whole covid thing doesn't feel right.

I'm not arguing any point, one way, or another, but what would have to be going on, for it to feel right?

a reply to: Phage

It is clearly apparent that the vaccines greatly reduce the risk of severe disease.

Not without booster shots which you would became depended. And still you would have the risks of the side effects of the mRNA vaxs which again i am not going to take the vaxs to find that out.

Or catching the covid/flu while being vaxed.

a reply to: HawkEyi

The news is really going all out fear to the max with this # this year or something. Town's been packed up full of tourists for months, nobody's been wearing masks, more people than not are unvaccinated, at least according to the stats, nobody's really been following any kind of social distancing or whatever, and well, doesn't seem to be much problem with deltas, or gammas or omegas or whatever we're up to now. People seem fine, hospital's not overrun, no mass deaths or anything.

a reply to: Phage

Where do they test for this delta variant and how does the test identify and differentiate it from other variants? What is the specific mutation in this delta variant?

a reply to: HawkEyi

Not without booster shots which you would became depended.

Dependent.

Are you saying that without a booster you are more subject to severe infection? Do you have a source for this claim?

Or are you saying that you may be more likely to become infected? That you are safe from being re-infected if you are not vaccinated? Do you have a source for this claim?

Or catching the covid/flu while being vaxed.

Yeah, that can't happen if you aren't vaccinated.

a reply to: HawkEyi
All I know is that the situation at the hospitals in my county is dire. My county is the hardest hit in the state and also among the least vaccinated. It was in the local news that people are dying while waiting in the ER at one of the hospitals in my county. There are no more hospital beds for people and it's only going to get worse here before it gets better.

a reply to: drewlander

Genomic sequencing is used to determine the variant. For Delta, specifically, it is these variations in the genes which create the spike protein. Other variants have other "fingerprints."

T19R, (V70F*), T95I, G142D, E156-, F157-, R158G, (A222V*), (W258L*), (K417N*), L452R, T478K, D614G, P681R, D950N

www.cdc.gov...

Surveillance testing is used to determine what variants may appear and become dominant in a particular region.

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: HawkEyi

because after reading the article you have to come another conclusion to all of this.

You didn't explain why.

Delta is more transmissible than Alpha. This means the R factor is higher. This means that one person who is infected can infect more people than Alpha did.

The vaccines were never claimed to be able to completely stop infection or transmission but evidence showed that (with Alpha) it did both to some degree.

It is clearly apparent that the vaccines greatly reduce the risk of severe disease.

Before I engage in debate with you Phage , answer me one question .

Have you been Vaccinated ?

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: HawkEyi

because after reading the article you have to come another conclusion to all of this.

It is clearly apparent that the vaccines greatly reduce the risk of severe disease.

Convid isn't a severe disease. However, if you are obese, have heart disease, diabetes, are over the age of 65, have a prior history of pneumonia, TB (these are excellent examples of a severe disease), etc. then convid can impact you just as easily as the other 109 infectious diseases currently circulating across the globe.

A vaccine is not needed for a virus with a 99.97% survival rate where the average symptoms are a mild fever and fatigue for a few days.

To the contrary there is evidence vaccines don't work as well as you like to pretend.

Here's a list of the top 10 most deadly diseases: www.healthline.com...

This list has remained fairly unchanged for more than two decades. There have been vaccines for influenzas, pneumonia, and TB and yet these 3 diseases have held onto the #3 spot for quite some time. If vaccines are so effective why do these 3 diseases constantly remain at the top of the list year after year after year after year?

A vaccine does not reduce the risk of a severe disease. A vaccine (in theory) is supposed to help your immune system fight the disease when / if you contract it. You can still get sick. You may not be as sick or remain sick as long as someone who has not had a vaccine, however, the fact remains you can still get sick.

My doctor takes the flu shot every season and still he gets sick with the flu on average 4 times each season because he is in constant contact with sick patients. And he's "out with the flu" the exact same average number of days you typically have the flu. It's almost like the vaccines he takes year after year after year....don't actually help at all.

a reply to: Type1338

A vaccine does not reduce the risk of a severe disease.

You may not be as sick or remain sick as long as someone who has not had a vaccine

Say what?

It was never claimed that the vaccines provide 100% protection from infection.

a reply to: Phage

Are they performing genomic sequencing on every patient? Last i knew they still used a pcr test. How do we know if people have this delta variant if we are not doing genomic testing 100% of the time?

a reply to: HawkEyi

We always knew that things like this could happen, Fauci warned about it early last year. IT's why vaxxing and social distancing are so important. Virus aren't like bacteria, when they reach a critical mass their chances of mutating increase exponentially based on pure statistical probability.

THIS is exactly what happens when snowflakes get upset about their feeelzz and refuse to do what is necessary to kick this virus to the curb.

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: Type1338

A vaccine does not reduce the risk of a severe disease.

You may not be as sick or remain sick as long as someone who has not had a vaccine

Say what?

It was never claimed that the vaccines provide 100% protection from infection.

The latest data from the UK, where about 80% of the adult population is vaxxed actually shows that the number of sympotomatic infections has dramatically decreased, as has the severity of symptomatic infections. It's pretty dramatic. Something like an 85% reduction for people who are not in the most vulnerable groups.

Data released this month shows that it's particularly telling among the under 50s. 20% of population is unvaxxed and yet they make up over 60% of all serious cases. Yes, 1 in 5 people are unvaxed, yet make they make up 1 in 3 of all serious cases. IT's absolute proof that vaxxing is effective.

originally posted by: drewlander
a reply to: Phage

Are they performing genomic sequencing on every patient? Last i knew they still used a pcr test. How do we know if people have this delta variant if we are not doing genomic testing 100% of the time?

Asking them to do sequencing 100% of the time is stupid, there isn't enough lab capacity in the country to do that. You might as well demand that every BLM member who is arrested for peacefully protesting a building to the ground has their DNA read to see what percentage minority they are.

You just need to sequence a representative sample and then mathematically extrapolate it across the population based on statistical analysis.

a reply to: AaarghZombies

It is also proof that the vaxed will at this stage of the game have to be vaxed for life to maintain that immunity. This is what you would expect at this time period. But after six months if you have survived the two shots without harm the booster is still a question mark, I am sure things will be clearer soon.

I'm unvaxed, I'm free, and I'm alive, not sick and healthy as a horse, not masked, and all of you covid fear pushers are the biggest screamers of fire in the movie theater. How do you all look yourselves in the mirror at night and take yourselves seriously. What a crock this all has been.

originally posted by: anonentity
a reply to: AaarghZombies

It is also proof that the vaxed will at this stage of the game have to be vaxed for life to maintain that immunity. This is what you would expect at this time period. But after six months if you have survived the two shots without harm the booster is still a question mark, I am sure things will be clearer soon.

Given that the data which was released was a snapshot of cases to date, and not a case study over time there is absolutely no way that you could use it support your conclusion.

You're welcome to try, I actively invite you to try. Just remember that in order to demonstrate your conclusion you're going to need to prove it mathematically, so any answer that you give which doesn't include the math needed to explain how you reached it can't actually be considered an answer, just a conclusion.

Now, on to the topic at hand.

If a person is vaxed their immunity will diminish over time, but this is a gradual decrease, not an exponential one, and in the majority of the population it won't ever reduce to zero.

If that vaxxed person is exposed to Covid then they initially have an 85% chance that they will either not be infected with covid or will only experience mild symptoms, this 85% will decrease over time, but each subsequent time they are exposed to covid their immunity will go back up again. The amount of increase will vary from person to person. This is because each time you are exposed to covid it's like getting a booster shot. You're body already knows how to fight it, so it's easier to do so.

A vaxxed person also has a 50-60% lower risk of transmitting covid, so if one vaxed person has covid and stands next to another vaxxed person the first vaxxed person has significantly reduced chance of transmitting convid to the second person and the second person has a significantly reduced risk of being infected, and if they are infected then this recharges their immunity.

On the other hand, an unvaxxed person doesn't have this initial immunity and so in more likely to get infected the first time, and more likely to get sick the first time.

After that, they're in EXACTLY THE SAME BOAT as the vaxxed when it comes to booster shots. Their immunity will also decrease over time, but the vaxxed are more likely to have a booster shot which means that they get a free recharge to their immunity without the risk of getting sick, which the unvaxxed don't have, because the only place that they can get a recharge form is being infected a second time.

Of course, if everyone got vaxxed the amount of covid in the environment would be so low that booster shots wouldn't be necessary. Remember, the booster is used to guard against covid that primarily exists inside the unvaxxed.

Yes, the unvaxxed are the main suppliers of covid, without them boosters may not need to be a thing at all.