It looks like you're using an Ad Blocker.
Please white-list or disable AboveTopSecret.com in your ad-blocking tool.
Thank you.
Some features of ATS will be disabled while you continue to use an ad-blocker.
The Delta Variant Will Drive A Steep Rise In U.S. COVID Deaths, A New Model Shows
www.npr.org...
APRIL 21, 2020 3:05PM
How One Model Simulated 2.2 Million U.S. Deaths from COVID-19
www.cato.org...
A month later that 2.2 million estimate was still being used (without revealing the source) by President Trump and Doctors Fauci and Birx to imply that up to two million lives had been saved by state lockdowns and business closings and/or by federal travel bans.
The key premise of 81% of the population being infected should have raised more alarms than it did. Even the deadly "Spanish Flu" (H1N1) pandemic of 1918-19 infected no more than 28% of the U.S. population. The next H1N1 "Swine Flu" pandemic in 2009-10, infected 20-24% of Americans.
To push the percentage infected up from 20-28% to an unprecedented 81% for COVID-19 required assuming the number of cases and/or deaths keeps doubling every three or four days for months (deaths were predicted to peak July 20). And that means assuming the estimated reproduction number (R0) of 2.4 remains high, and people keep mingling with different groups, until nearly everyone gets infected. Long before 8 out of 10 people became infected, however, a larger and larger percentage of the population would have recovered from the disease and become immune, so a smaller and smaller share would still remain susceptible
Study estimates nearly 1 in 4 New Yorkers had COVID-19 early in pandemic
www.ny1.com...
originally posted by: network dude
originally posted by: Byrd
Also... note that this was Original Flavor Covid and not the new Delta flavor.
So, while interesting, without the additional data (what is happening in the community) it's not clear how to interpret the data.
could you list the peer reviewed data from last year showing the delta variant? I only ask as you seemed to think it should be included in this.
But without data on Delta, and of course we cannot exclude Epsilon
we cannot make any decisions about opening schools or the world for that matter.
In that light, it's best that you and all those who think like you stay indoors "sheltering in place" until we have news that all viruses have been eradicated, like we did with the flu.
I'll be sure to keep you and those like you posted throw-out the year. Stay safe, stay inside, stay alive.
originally posted by: SlapMonkey
originally posted by: olaru12
a reply to: SlapMonkey
I'm convinced!! Charts and graphs from the internet proof.
Then go to the site, look at the raw data, inspect the links that take you directly to the state-supplied statistics, inspect that data.
State supplied statistics lol, well you know what they say about statistics...perhaps not...here!
originally posted by: ChaoticOrder
a reply to: olaru12
State supplied statistics lol, well you know what they say about statistics...perhaps not...here!
Lmao... funny how official state statistics are suddenly flawed or manipulated when they don't agree with your personal opinion. If the data showed what you wanted then your argument would be "stop being such a paranoid conspiracy theorist and accept reality".
originally posted by: Allaroundyou
a reply to: SlapMonkey
Look at your source man. Jeez talk about deny ignorance.
originally posted by: SlapMonkey
And before anyone makes the point, I fully comprehend the reality that correlation doesn't equal causation, and that it lacks information on how many students in each school or grade had immunity and yada yada yada, I'm just trying to share the raw numbers that seem to indicate that, at the very least, all of these COVID protocols don't seem to be doing much, and on the contrary, they seem to be making things 'not gooder.'
originally posted by: olaru12
originally posted by: ChaoticOrder
a reply to: olaru12
State supplied statistics lol, well you know what they say about statistics...perhaps not...here!
Lmao... funny how official state statistics are suddenly flawed or manipulated when they don't agree with your personal opinion. If the data showed what you wanted then your argument would be "stop being such a paranoid conspiracy theorist and accept reality".
My personal opinion has nothing to do with it. Flawed data is flawed data; the statistical model was a joke.
I'm open to data not supplied with agenda driven entities. Show it, then we can talk.
originally posted by: network dude
I should have read the whole thread before using what was sarcasm before I found out that people really were that #ing stupid. my bad.
originally posted by: SlapMonkey
a reply to: Byrd
Allow myself to quote...myself:
originally posted by: SlapMonkey
And before anyone makes the point, I fully comprehend the reality that correlation doesn't equal causation, and that it lacks information on how many students in each school or grade had immunity and yada yada yada, I'm just trying to share the raw numbers that seem to indicate that, at the very least, all of these COVID protocols don't seem to be doing much, and on the contrary, they seem to be making things 'not gooder.'
I hope that helps in your understanding of what my actual point in posting this was. Maybe I should have edited the OP to include this, but it was the post directly underneath it, so I thought most people would catch it. Silly me.