Let's Talk About Apohpis 2029

a reply to: lostbook

According to NASA Apophis won't strike earth for another hundred years.

What we gonna do? Bruce Willis will be dead by then?

In seriousness a hundred years to work on a plan to prevent this? We *should* be ok...

a reply to: djz3ro

Made me chuckle but it is a sad day when we have to turn actors into make believe heroes when there are so many real life ones in the world today and every day.
And there have time and again throughout history been men AND woman that make his characters look like pansies, many of those are nearly gone from us and the last of them are dying out, those are the lads from WW2, then there are the aging heroes from other conflicts and those hurt today in todays theatres were those young soldiers have there hands tied by being there primarily as peace keepers but seen by the enemy as legitimate targets.
And then there are the other kinds of real world hero's, GOOD doctors, nurses and paramedics (There are sadly some bad ones), Good Police officers (once again there are some bad ones) etc whom are often in danger of there lives while they seek to save others.

a reply to: LABTECH767

many of those are nearly gone from us and the last of them are dying out, those are the lads from WW2, then there are the aging heroes from other conflicts and those hurt today in todays theatres were those young soldiers

WW2 vets have an excuse. After the 90's ( advent of accessible information - Internet ) no one has an excuse for fighting bankers wars.

originally posted by: cmdrkeenkid
a reply to: lostbook

The asteroid would have negligible impact on the Earth by flying by.

Even if it did impact, the damage, while devastating, would be limited regionally.

An asteroid , nowhere close to the size of Apophis , crashed into the Yucatan peninsula and damn near ended all life. I have heard the impact of that one was BILLIONS of times more powerful than some atomic bombs.

Good Grief...

a reply to: Gothmog

Size, Velocity and area of impact are all important points, how fast was the Yucatan impact, how large exactly and what then was the calculated kinetic energy released, it may be larger but that does not mean it would be as destructive unless it is travelling at an equally high velocity in which case then yes it would be far more destructive - depending on angle of impact, area of impact etc.

There have been sizable impacts were the impact has grazed the ground and this has saved us from catastrophes in the distant past, there is one such astrobleme in Argentina if I recall were an asteroid or sizable object hit at an oblique angle, oblique enough that it did not release all it's kinetic energy in one massive explosion.

Far more serious and immediate concern is actually the activity of the Yellowstone caldera and can we safely blead it off if it comes down to it becoming an immediate danger, should the US be already looking at ways of mitigating that if it should erupt or should they let nature takes it's course.

Deccan traps in India comes to mind.

Of course Volcanos traditionally tended to put out more CO2 than all human activity on an annual basis, this would be many hundreds if not thousands of times more and if it was not just a lava flood but a genuine massive eruption it would also put enough debris into the air to black out the sun and cause global famine.

On a side note the Yellowstone caldera a so called super volcano is powered by a huge sub crustal thermal plume an upwelling of magma and heat from somewhere deep in the earth's interior that has the potential to be turned into a natural power source if we ever learn to harness it that would produce many times more energy than all the worlds power stations combined and that could give the US enough power to last for eon's if they really had the drive to find some way to harness it.

originally posted by: Phage

In 2029, Apophis will come dangerously close to Earth!

19,800 miles is not dangerously close. Unless you are a satellite in geosynchronous orbit.

True.

Most of the sats in geosynchronous orbit are doing so at 22,300 miles above us. Give or take a few miles...

originally posted by: lostbook
Hello, ATS.

I remember back when there was worry of an immeninent strike by the Asteroid Apophis in 2029 or 2036( apparently it comes close to Earth every 7 years on average). Apophis is really big at 1,115 feet across. If something that big hit Earth travelling at speeds of 72,000 mph or whatevr speed it's travelling then it would cause serious damage. However, according to this new data as stated in the article, Apophis has no chance of impacting Earth for at least the next 100 years. Ok, great! So, why am I writing this post? It's because i have a question.................

In 2029, Apophis will come dangerously close to Earth!

The 2029 pass of asteroid Apophis. The April 13, 2029, encounter of Apophis with Earth will be extremely close. At its closest in 2029, Apophis will sweep at about 10% of the Earth-moon distance. That’s very close for a space rock over 1,115 ft (340 meters) across!

If Apophis does come dangerously close but doesn't strike Earth could the pull of its gravity still have any effect on Earth's oceans, causing massive tidal waves, or earthquakes, or volcano eruptions, etc. In the article it does say that Earth's gravity could affect the spin of Apophis but I'm wondering if the pull of Apophis on Earth could cause some damage...? What do you guys think? Could a close flyby of something as big as Apophis be as dangerous to life on Earth as an actual impact? What say you, ATS?

earthsky.org...#:~:text=Apophis%20is%20a%20near%2DEarth,strike%20was%20subsequently%20rule d%20out.

NASA headlined it, "NASA Analysis: Earth Is Safe From Asteroid Apophis for 100-Plus Years"

.. Astronomers are also working to develop a better understanding of the asteroid’s rotation rate and the axis it spins around (known as its spin state). That knowledge will enable them to determine the orientation the asteroid will have with Earth as it encounters our planet’s gravitational field in 2029, which could change that spin state and even cause “asteroid quakes.” On April 13, 2029, the asteroid Apophis will pass less than 20,000 miles (32,000 kilometers) from our planet’s surface – closer than the distance of geosynchronous satellites. During that 2029 close approach, Apophis will be visible to observers on the ground in the Eastern Hemisphere without the aid of a telescope or binoculars. It’s also an unprecedented opportunity for astronomers to get a close-up view of a solar system relic that is now just a scientific curiosity and not an immediate hazard to our planet.

It's coming awfully too close I wouldn't rule out impact completely just yet.

There's also possibility of undetected rocks following Apophis right behind it. Knowing the size of this thing, it could even be a binary asteroid.

We better be prepared with technology capable of altering its orbit path. No one knows how it'll turn out within the next 8 years.

originally posted by: cmdrkeenkid
a reply to: lostbook

The asteroid would have negligible impact on the Earth by flying by.

Even if it did impact, the damage, while devastating, would be limited regionally.

originally posted by: Gothmog
An asteroid , nowhere close to the size of Apophis , crashed into the Yucatan peninsula and damn near ended all life. I have heard the impact of that one was BILLIONS of times more powerful than some atomic bombs.

Good Grief...

Right. An asteroid that may be 15,000 meters in diameter or more such as the one that impacted Chixilub will create a lot more damage than an object only about 370 meters in diameter, like Apophis.

Apophis FAQ

What would happen if Apophis hit Earth?

Apophis would cause widespread destruction up to several hundred of kilometers from its impact site. The energy released would be equal more than 1,000 megatons of TNT, or tens to hundreds of nuclear weapons.

How big was the asteroid that killed the dinosaurs?

The asteroid that led to the extinction of the dinosaurs as well as 70% of all species on Earth was at least 10 to 15 kilometers wide. It was much larger than Apophis, though millions of people could still die if an Apophis-sized asteroid struck a major metropolitan area.

So what would happen if it hit the moon?

a reply to: Dumbdowned

Knowing the size of this thing, it could even be a binary asteroid.

It isn't. The radar observations would have determined that.

originally posted by: MazMaric
So what would happen if it hit the moon?

Excellent question. I hadn't thought of that. I would assume that depending on the angle it hit the moon it could send a bunch of debris our wat.

a reply to: lostbook

It's happened. There are meteorites which originated from the Moon (and Mars, for that matter). Impacts would seem to be the source. But they aren't very large pieces.

In any case, it's not going to hit the Moon any time soon either.

originally posted by: lostbook
If Apophis does come dangerously close but doesn't strike Earth could the pull of its gravity still have any effect on Earth's oceans, causing massive tidal waves, or earthquakes, or volcano eruptions, etc.

As previously pointed, no, it's too small.

In the article it does say that Earth's gravity could affect the spin of Apophis but I'm wondering if the pull of Apophis on Earth could cause some damage...?

The Earth's gravity effect on Apophis may be enough to make it change slightly it's trajectory, so they will probably have to remake their calculations for the next passes.

a reply to: ArMaP

The Earth's gravity effect on Apophis may be enough to make it change slightly it's trajectory, so they will probably have to remake their calculations for the next passes

Earth's gravity (and that of the Moon and other planets) is taken into account. There will be slight variation because there are very small influences which cannot be dealt with, but not much. That is why they are confident in saying that the asteroid will not be a threat for at least 100 years, that's more than 100 orbits.

a reply to: lostbook

You can try this Earth impact calculator and see what it says.

For example, if it hit at 17 km/s, at an angle of 45º on sedimentary rock, the results would be:

Crater shape is normal in spite of atmospheric crushing; fragments are not significantly dispersed.

Transient Crater Diameter: 4.48 km ( = 2.78 miles )
Transient Crater Depth: 1.59 km ( = 0.984 miles )

Final Crater Diameter: 5.48 km ( = 3.4 miles )
Final Crater Depth: 494 meters ( = 1620 feet )

At a distance of 1000 km the effects would be:

The fireball is below the horizon. There is no direct thermal radiation.

The major seismic shaking will arrive approximately 3.33 minutes after impact.
Richter Scale Magnitude: 6.8
Mercalli Scale Intensity at a distance of 1000 km: Nothing would be felt. However, seismic equipment may still detect the shaking.

The ejecta will arrive approximately 8.24 minutes after the impact.
At your position there is a fine dusting of ejecta with occasional larger fragments
Average Ejecta Thickness: 3.61 microns ( = 0.142 thousandths of an inch )
Mean Fragment Diameter: 76.1 microns ( = 3 thousandths of an inch )

The air blast will arrive approximately 50.5 minutes after impact.
Peak Overpressure: 709 Pa = 0.00709 bars = 0.101 psi
Max wind velocity: 1.67 m/s = 3.73 mph
Sound Intensity: 57 dB (Loud as heavy traffic)
Damage Description: Glass windows may shatter.

Very destructive locally by hardly an ELE.

a reply to: Phage

I know it is, but they can only know the exact influence after it passes, right?

originally posted by: Phage
There are plenty who would disagree about Nibiru. There are plenty who say there is no COVID crisis.

Or border crises...

a reply to: ArMaP

The exact influence of Earth's gravity is known. What was not known was the exact location of the pass. Radar provided that.

a reply to: Phage

What I meant was that they can only know exactly what the Earth's gravity influence is when they know the exact distance it will pass at, and they can only know that with precision after it passes.

a reply to: ArMaP

But they don't have to wait until after it passes to get an accurate location. That can be obtained before close approach.

Never mind. It's clear that you understand the point and I'm probably being too pedantic.