How Do We Know the Vaccine's Working?

originally posted by: bigfatfurrytexan
a reply to: ScepticScot

The only reason Fauci didn't advise mask wearing was to save stock for medical staff. Instead of providing instructions on making your own, etc....he advised against it. Which is a big reason so many Americans refuse...it looked wishy washy.

The science did not direct that decision. Whatever directed it....is mismanagment.

The CDC updated its guidance in early April, that's almost a year ago.

It wasn't the only reason he made the initial statement, at that point there as extremely limited data on how virus was spread and few cases in the US to support mass mask wearing. Besides which mass panic buying PPE would have potentially had far more serious consequences for people who absolutely did need it.

If people are unable/unwilling to understand that advice and circumstances change from a year ago then that is on them, not anything fauci said.

a reply to: ScepticScot

You are doing the same crap here. Ridiculing, misrepresenting....

Ill leave you with this, and hope i state it so you understand what i am saying:

www.businessinsider.com...

"I don't regret anything I said then because in the context of the time in which I said it, it was correct. We were told in our task force meetings that we have a serious problem with the lack of PPEs," he said.

And, to repeat...he knew masks were useful, and instead of supplying instructions to Americans to help fight this disease, with some home made mask instructions (which were already circulating by March 2020....i laid employees off on 3/18, and many already were wearing cloth masks for at least a week prior) he said that masks did not help.

He admits this in the above quote. This isn't a year later we are talking about. This was right then, in the moment, and he admits to misleading the public (which allowed the disease to spread) in order to save PPE for medical staff. he didn't say "You should wear a mask, but please do not go purchasing paper masks so we can have them for medical staff". He said that masks were not needed. He lied. He did not try to not lie. He just went straight to the lie. And used a bull# reason to explain it.

I do not care if its a "greater good". He lied. To all of us. On TV. And people died because of it.

originally posted by: bigfatfurrytexan
a reply to: ScepticScot

You are doing the same crap here. Ridiculing, misrepresenting....

Ill leave you with this, and hope i state it so you understand what i am saying:

www.businessinsider.com...

"I don't regret anything I said then because in the context of the time in which I said it, it was correct. We were told in our task force meetings that we have a serious problem with the lack of PPEs," he said.

And, to repeat...he knew masks were useful, and instead of supplying instructions to Americans to help fight this disease, with some home made mask instructions (which were already circulating by March 2020....i laid employees off on 3/18, and many already were wearing cloth masks for at least a week prior) he said that masks did not help.

He admits this in the above quote. This isn't a year later we are talking about. This was right then, in the moment, and he admits to misleading the public (which allowed the disease to spread) in order to save PPE for medical staff. he didn't say "You should wear a mask, but please do not go purchasing paper masks so we can have them for medical staff". He said that masks were not needed. He lied. He did not try to not lie. He just went straight to the lie. And used a bull# reason to explain it.

I do not care if its a "greater good". He lied. To all of us. On TV. And people died because of it.

your picking out one part to try and support your view . Also in your link

"When it became clear that the infection could be spread by asymptomatic carriers who don't know they're infected, that made it very clear that we had to strongly recommend masks," he said.

"And also, it soon became clear that we had enough protective equipment and that cloth masks and homemade masks were as good as masks that you would buy from surgical supply stores," Fauci added. "So in the context of when we were not strongly recommending it, it was the correct thing."

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: bigfatfurrytexan
a reply to: ScepticScot

You are doing the same crap here. Ridiculing, misrepresenting....

Ill leave you with this, and hope i state it so you understand what i am saying:

www.businessinsider.com...

"I don't regret anything I said then because in the context of the time in which I said it, it was correct. We were told in our task force meetings that we have a serious problem with the lack of PPEs," he said.

And, to repeat...he knew masks were useful, and instead of supplying instructions to Americans to help fight this disease, with some home made mask instructions (which were already circulating by March 2020....i laid employees off on 3/18, and many already were wearing cloth masks for at least a week prior) he said that masks did not help.

He admits this in the above quote. This isn't a year later we are talking about. This was right then, in the moment, and he admits to misleading the public (which allowed the disease to spread) in order to save PPE for medical staff. he didn't say "You should wear a mask, but please do not go purchasing paper masks so we can have them for medical staff". He said that masks were not needed. He lied. He did not try to not lie. He just went straight to the lie. And used a bull# reason to explain it.

I do not care if its a "greater good". He lied. To all of us. On TV. And people died because of it.

your picking out one part to try and support your view . Also in your link

"When it became clear that the infection could be spread by asymptomatic carriers who don't know they're infected, that made it very clear that we had to strongly recommend masks," he said.

"And also, it soon became clear that we had enough protective equipment and that cloth masks and homemade masks were as good as masks that you would buy from surgical supply stores," Fauci added. "So in the context of when we were not strongly recommending it, it was the correct thing."

ETA Trump said he wouldn't wear a face mask even after the guidance was changed I suspect that had and has far more of an impact on some Americans reluctance to wear masks than anything Fauci said.

originally posted by: dug88
So with a survival rate around the 97%-99% range and a death rate around the 1%-3% range, how exactly will we know the vaccine's working?

When the survival rate gets up to 99.99%?

Your numbers are wrong - or at least, imprecise.

The survival rate for the vast majority is already at 99.99+%. It is only the extremely at risk that get up to the 1-3% CFR - and that is only if they are untreated. With proper treatment, their survival rate skyrockets too.

To answer your question - we will never know.

originally posted by: 1947boomer
When a sufficient number of people in any population get vaccinated, Rt will stay below 1 even when people stop social distancing and wearing masks.

Your comment is incomplete...

When a sufficient number of people in any population get vaccinated (assuming the vaccines actually work) or are exposed to the virus and develop natural immunity (which is superior to any potential immunity acquired through vaccination)...

But the reality is, this will end up being just another seasonal thing - yes, just like the flu. It will never - EVER - go away - yes, just like colds and the flu.

DEAL WITH IT.