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Definition of may (Entry 1 of 4) 1a —used to indicate possibility or probability
"you may be right"
"things you may need"
—sometimes used interchangeably with can,
"one of those slip ups that may happen from time to time" — Jessica Mitford
—sometimes used where might would be expected, "you may think from a little distance that the country was solid woods" — Robert Frost
You may be right.
originally posted by: MichiganSwampBuck
Definition of may (Entry 1 of 4) 1a —used to indicate possibility or probability
"you may be right"
"things you may need"
—sometimes used interchangeably with can,
"one of those slip ups that may happen from time to time" — Jessica Mitford
—sometimes used where might would be expected, "you may think from a little distance that the country was solid woods" — Robert Frost
www.merriam-webster.com
It's possible or probable that masks reduce the risk of COVID-19 spread is the likely meaning here, not like that nails anything down. Possible is a roll of the dice, like winning the lottery. Probable makes it sound likely to be true, but not all that certain either. "Can" is more positive but conditional, as with "It can happen, but doesn't always happen." "Might" is no better than "can".
That use of words could be used in an almost exactly opposite manner and still have just as much truth.
Masks may not reduce the risk of COVID-19 spread. It is possible or probable they don't or they might not reduce the risk of COVID-19 spread. However, if you said it can't reduce the risk, you have to have solid evidence to back that up with every situation possible, not so much with "can" reduce the spread.