Arab American Wars of The 21st Century (moved from ATSNN), page 1

This is a short, four and a half page essay, written from the perspective of someone looking back at current events from the end of the 21st Century. It analyses how events would have unfolded to reach the point where the current war reached all the way from the North West Frontier to Port Said. And then in proxy form across North Africa. When China assumes some greater influence in the region and then comes out publicly as the regional hegemon, a war breaks out with America, Japan and allies. Eventually Russia mediates, a grand bargain is struck, and all turn to fight together against the muslim enemy they have collectively created. This is where the tale ends. I conclude with the observation that war is part of the natural order of the universe - whereby all will tend towards balance within a process of unending change.

Opening Paragraph:
I remember the Arab-American Wars of the 21st Century. I was there at the beginning. George W Bush emerged from Texas on an unpromising ticket, entered the White House on a legal technicality, and promised to be an uninspiring lame duck for a few years while the country got over the stains on an intern’s dress. A public examination of the Presidential Semen had emasculated the Oval Office and George seemed the ideal antidote - tanned and dull, possessed of some capable handlers from his Dad’s team, a loyal husband, and true blue USA to his (skull and) bones. 9/11 would have been big for anyone, so no surprise Dubbya was at least a little bit stunned. The defining moment of his ascendancy for me was the delineation that if you’re not with us, you’re with the terrorists. That showed the bone.

About 1/3 of the way throgh:
Israel continuing to lock horns with stateless Palestinians, refusing to give back or share Jerusalem. David against Goliath, with both sides playing the evil giant and both sides playing the innocent David. The declaration of a nuclear Iran, changing the regional dynamic completely. The TV graphics from Tel Aviv, showing the path of Israel’s rockets as they sailed through the sky towards Tehran. The Arab states bristling, then launching an all out war against Israel and the Iraqi Apostate. War in every form possible, direct and proxy, in theatre and at home, conventional and dirty. The deposing of Pervez Musharaff and the reversion of Pakistan and its nuclear arsenal to radicalism under a Talibanised army leadership. Afghanistan requiring a fresh influx of US and NATO troops just to keep Pakistani radicals out of Quandahar and Kabul. India a vital and important US ally now, keeping the North West Passage closed and so sealing the eastward expansion of the fundamentalist tide. A saffron Hindustani ally.

After Some Build Up About China:
And then China coming out publicly as the new patron of the middle east, the biggest kid on the block with an artery running through Lahore to the peninsula and the waiting Chinese oil companies. The announcement of Chinese hegemony in the region signaling that the face off with the US had finally arrived. America, exhausted, bruised, and steadily losing blood, had finally admitted that stalemate was the best result it was going to be able to afford in its war with the Arabs and followed the Soviet example, a long line of retreating US tanks representing the ignominious defeat of another great empire at the hands of the camel herders. The perfect time for China to step out from the shadows and face the Great Satan directly. The US had expected a distant mercantilist, economic cold war with a military-industrial rival. A repeat of the US-Soviet cold war of the 20th century. But the massive speed and overtly offensive tone of China’s arms build up, clearly directed at Japan and the US, literally forced Washington to do an about-face and focus itself directly on the Chinese threat. And suddenly the US is at war with China. A war on five fronts.

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.

I started to imagine how events could progress to the point where we could talk about the 'Arab American Wars of the 21st Century'. What would they look like? How would they progress? How would different actors in the international system respond? So I came up with a map sketching one way that I think things could progress, taking account of all the major players and putting in enough detail to scare off the geographically illiterate. The decision to write it retrospectively, as a narrative, was at most accidental.

I try to be as neutral in terms of judgement as I know how, and conclude with a paragraph putting everything into a very philosophical context. I belive that I write well and have some good insights. I hope you agree.

David.