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Rootclaim outperforms human reasoning by correcting for the biases and flaws of human intuition. The platform integrates all available evidence, assesses it for credibility and uses probabilistic models to reach conclusions about the likelihood of competing hypotheses. Its conclusions represent the best available understanding of the complexity and uncertainty in our world
The virus was developed during gain-of-function research and was released by accident. (81% probability)
Hypotheses Considered
1 81% Lab escape: The virus was developed during gain-of-function research and was released by accident.
2 16% Zoonotic: The virus evolved in nature and was transmitted to humans zoonotically.
3 2.8% Bioweapon: The virus was genetically engineered as a bioweapon and was deliberately released.
When a novel coronavirus was first identified in late 2019, the assumption was that, like most epidemics, it was of a zoonotic source. A few studies, including one published in the prestigious Nature magazine, concluded that the virus is not a laboratory construct.
Today, claiming a non-zoonotic origin is widely considered a conspiracy theory, and indeed many such claims are easily refutable without requiring probabilistic inference.
However, the possibility of a lab escape does require serious examination, especially when considering the proximity of the source to a major coronavirus lab and several unusual findings in the genome of SARS-CoV-2. Due to the complexities of weighing an unlikely lab origin against findings that are unlikely for a zoonotic source, a probabilistic analysis is needed.
Subbarao explained that routine virological methods involve experiments that aim to produce a gain of a desired function, such as higher yields for vaccine strains, but often also lead to loss of function, such as loss of the ability for a virus to replicate well, as a consequence. In other words, any selection process involving an alteration of genotypes and their resulting phenotypes is considered a type of Gain-of-Function (GoF) research, even if the U.S. policy is intended to apply to only a small subset of such work.
Subbarao emphasized that such experiments in virology are fundamental to understanding the biology, ecology, and pathogenesis of viruses and added that much basic knowledge is still lacking for SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. Subbarao introduced the key questions that virologists ask at all stages of research on the emergence or re-emergence of a virus and specifically adapted these general questions to the three viruses of interest in the symposium (see Box 3-1). To answer these questions, virologists use gain- and loss-of-function experiments to understand the genetic makeup of viruses and the specifics of virus-host interaction. For instance, researchers now have advanced molecular technologies, such as reverse genetics, which allow them to produce de novo recombinant viruses from cloned cDNA, and deep sequencing that are critical for studying how viruses escape the host immune system and antiviral controls. Researchers also use targeted host or viral genome modification using small interfering RNA or the bacterial CRISPR-associated protein-9 nuclease as an editing tool.
originally posted by: dug88
An Israeli startup named Rootclaim has determined that there is an 81% chance that the SARS-cov-2 was accidentally released from the Wuhan bioresearch laboratory during gain-of-function research.
...
Hold up though. If it was being studied at UNC Chapel Hill’s R&D lab for GoF capacity (circa 2014-16?)and when it was learned of the intention and capability, it was shut down there....
originally posted by: CriticalStinker
a reply to: dug88
If it accidently leaked from China, they owe the rest of the world for the losses that will set us all back a decade.
originally posted by: dug88
An Israeli startup named Rootclaim has determined that there is an 81% chance that the SARS-cov-2 was accidentally released from the Wuhan bioresearch laboratory during gain-of-function research.
Rootclaim is, i'm assuming, an ai driven service that does this:
Rootclaim outperforms human reasoning by correcting for the biases and flaws of human intuition. The platform integrates all available evidence, assesses it for credibility and uses probabilistic models to reach conclusions about the likelihood of competing hypotheses. Its conclusions represent the best available understanding of the complexity and uncertainty in our world
According to rootclaim
www.rootclaim.com...
The virus was developed during gain-of-function research and was released by accident. (81% probability)
Hypotheses Considered
1 81% Lab escape: The virus was developed during gain-of-function research and was released by accident.
2 16% Zoonotic: The virus evolved in nature and was transmitted to humans zoonotically.
3 2.8% Bioweapon: The virus was genetically engineered as a bioweapon and was deliberately released.
When a novel coronavirus was first identified in late 2019, the assumption was that, like most epidemics, it was of a zoonotic source. A few studies, including one published in the prestigious Nature magazine, concluded that the virus is not a laboratory construct.
Today, claiming a non-zoonotic origin is widely considered a conspiracy theory, and indeed many such claims are easily refutable without requiring probabilistic inference.
However, the possibility of a lab escape does require serious examination, especially when considering the proximity of the source to a major coronavirus lab and several unusual findings in the genome of SARS-CoV-2. Due to the complexities of weighing an unlikely lab origin against findings that are unlikely for a zoonotic source, a probabilistic analysis is needed.
I'm sure this will likely be dismissed by the majority of media and many people. But it seems like it's worth looking more into. The link goes more into the evidence behind the eventual decision.
ETA: a bit of info on gain of function research.
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov...
Subbarao explained that routine virological methods involve experiments that aim to produce a gain of a desired function, such as higher yields for vaccine strains, but often also lead to loss of function, such as loss of the ability for a virus to replicate well, as a consequence. In other words, any selection process involving an alteration of genotypes and their resulting phenotypes is considered a type of Gain-of-Function (GoF) research, even if the U.S. policy is intended to apply to only a small subset of such work.
Subbarao emphasized that such experiments in virology are fundamental to understanding the biology, ecology, and pathogenesis of viruses and added that much basic knowledge is still lacking for SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. Subbarao introduced the key questions that virologists ask at all stages of research on the emergence or re-emergence of a virus and specifically adapted these general questions to the three viruses of interest in the symposium (see Box 3-1). To answer these questions, virologists use gain- and loss-of-function experiments to understand the genetic makeup of viruses and the specifics of virus-host interaction. For instance, researchers now have advanced molecular technologies, such as reverse genetics, which allow them to produce de novo recombinant viruses from cloned cDNA, and deep sequencing that are critical for studying how viruses escape the host immune system and antiviral controls. Researchers also use targeted host or viral genome modification using small interfering RNA or the bacterial CRISPR-associated protein-9 nuclease as an editing tool.
originally posted by: Nothin
a reply to: dug88
An AI, that's gonna legitimatize our whack-a-doodle conspiracy-theories ?
Really ?
In 2005, a group including researchers from the Wuhan Institute of Virology published research into the origin of the SARS coronavirus, finding that China's horseshoe bats are natural reservoirs of SARS-like coronaviruses.[6] Continuing this work over a period of years, researchers from the Institute sampled thousands of horseshoe bats in locations across China, isolating over 300 bat coronavirus sequences.[7]
In 2015, the Institute published successful research on whether a bat coronavirus could be made to infect HeLa. A team from the Institute engineered a hybrid virus, combining a bat coronavirus with a SARS virus that had been adapted to grow in mice and mimic human disease. The hybrid virus was able to infect human cells.[8][9]
Wuhan Institute of Virology - Coronavirus research
Define more.... that’s all the CCP is good for
originally posted by: CriticalStinker
a reply to: slatesteam
Your point is purely speculative.
If that was the case, I'd expect more rhetoric from China.