Undeniable proof masks don't do jack

fact is we lucked out being related to the COLD virus and so many already cant get it this is what really saved things from being that 2 million NOW but without a vax it will end up being 2 - 4 million in the US within 2 years from now before it starts ding down .

a reply to: midnightstar

This started in March ... so from March to November (we've had nearly the full month) we have had 250,000 deaths. That's roughly 27,778 deaths/month. To assume that this goes for another full year, and I will be generous and say that we get December tacked on to 2020, then 12 months of 2021 ... we're looking at 11 x 27,778 deaths or 305,558 deaths. Add that to the 250,000 we have already seen and you have 555,558 deaths in total.

Edit, I missed two months in there December and another month in 2021, so add in 55,556 more deaths. Still, we're nowhere near 2 million.

Where are the missing 1,444,442 deaths coming from? Understand, there will be a vaccine released at some point, and this thing cannot continue to infect people forever because at some point, everyone will have had it.

originally posted by: ketsuko

originally posted by: supermarket2012

originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: supermarket2012

All right then, your 2 to 3% is just to much speculation.

2-3% is the best number we have, based on all of the math and numbers we can crunch regarding this virus. The virus has been around long enough to get a fairly good idea of the fatality rate of those infected. According to all of the data we have available, which is a LOT since this virus has spread to every country, and has infected over 50 million people over the course of a year......2 to 3% death rate per infected population is a pretty stable percentage.

You just blasted me about how we don't know this stuff because the epidemic is ongoing. If that's true, then we can't use your computer model numbers either.

Look ... the best case scenario when all this madness started in the US was that around 2 million would die based on the computer model projections of a man considered an "expert" in the UK. Now, I am not downplaying the deaths we have to date, but 250,000 is magnitudes of order less than 2 million, and the 2 million was just the first wave, mind you. We were supposed to see that many dead before the end of the summer.

What they don't tell you is that the man who made that projection? He had blown two other, similar calls in the UK prior to everyone running with his numbers again.

Computer modeling is only as good as the data you feed into it. And, as you ably point out to deconstruct anything anyone does to try to tell you otherwise, our data is incomplete because this is an ongoing situation. So anything a computer model projects to you will be likewise incomplete and flawed.

Which model gave 2 million deaths as a best case scenario?

The imperial college model which I assume you are referring to have 2.2 million deaths in the US if no actions or change of behaviour.

originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: midnightstar

This started in March ... so from March to November (we've had nearly the full month) we have had 250,000 deaths. That's roughly 27,778 deaths/month. To assume that this goes for another full year, and I will be generous and say that we get December tacked on to 2020, then 12 months of 2021 ... we're looking at 11 x 27,778 deaths or 305,558 deaths. Add that to the 250,000 we have already seen and you have 555,558 deaths in total.

Where are the missing 1,444,442 deaths coming from? Understand, there will be a vaccine released at some point, and this thing cannot continue to infect people forever because at some point, everyone will have had it.

Are you complaining more people haven't died than early projections suggested they would? It's perhaps pertinent to this particular OP that perhaps partially due to PPE, partly due to the more responsible people following guidelines in countries that took them seriously that fewer people have died.

I'm sorry, I know I may have misread your point. A lot of worse case scenarios were put forward by some people based on historical outbreaks (note the 'Spanish' flu early in the 20th century) because you only have so many scenarios to base assumptions on.

a reply to: ScepticScot

2 million, 2.2 ... either way, we aren't hitting that target.

originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: ScepticScot

2 million, 2.2 ... either way, we aren't hitting that target.

it wasn't target, it describes a scenario where no actions are taken or change of behaviour. Not a 'best case scenario'.

a reply to: one4all

You sound triggered.

I'd reply in earnest but your post is yet another filled with assumptions and opinions and since I've learned manners I'll simply say bless you and your education assumptions.

Data is data. I'm not of the belief you pick and choose data that suits your cause. I have no cause here and I'm not the one providing material. I'm merely interpreting data.

What are you doing? Lol

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: ScepticScot

2 million, 2.2 ... either way, we aren't hitting that target.

it wasn't target, it describes a scenario where no actions are taken or change of behaviour. Not a 'best case scenario'.

So Trump and his admin saved 1.5 million lives

originally posted by: jjkenobi

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: ScepticScot

2 million, 2.2 ... either way, we aren't hitting that target.

it wasn't target, it describes a scenario where no actions are taken or change of behaviour. Not a 'best case scenario'.

So Trump and his admin saved 1.5 million lives

Is the US having some some of the worst Covid rates Trumps fault?

This is why we wear masks:


Kind of sad that we have to explain to adults in the US why we have to wear them. The statistics from the rest of the world where masks were worn at the onset of the outbreak vs. The US's COVID numbers should be enough to close the book on why we should wear masks.

Yet here we are...

a reply to: supermarket2012

Funny people say something that COVID is lethal in only .03% of cases. Currently the US a death rate of .0795% of all citizens which is significantly higher than those claims. With less than 5% of the population having the virus, a near 100% infection rate would kill 1-2% of this country.

Several states have lost more than 1 in 1000 citizens to COVID, with New Jersey currently having the higest fatality rate of 1.9 per 1000 people. Keep in mind, these figures are from the total population, NOT just the death rate of those infected.

Not wearing a mask is extremely selfish. I do not like to wear pants but I don't go screaming that my rights are being violated when I put on a pair.

The coated self replicating RNA thing that you won’t call a virus....that’s a virus. Is it open for debate that they could be very small bacteria? Sure but not by you with your phd from scientific direct.com and not by me....I don’t even have a fake made up phd so what do I know.
a reply to: one4all

a reply to: uncommitted

I am pointing out to the poster I replied to that if we stay on the pace we're on, there NO WAY we're hitting 2 million dead, and there is no way we're staying on this pace considering we are in the middle of an acknowledged spike right now. That means the rate of infiection is abnormally high in the populace. It cannot maintain this pace through the next 13 months.

And in fact in my area, the numbers have shown a sustained downward trend, so we're already off the recent pace as it is. So we're not hitting 2 million dead absent some catastrophic mutation that will completely invalidate all three of the vaccines.

a reply to: ChaoticOrder

A FATHER gets arrested because his SON isn't wearing a mask!

Costco this week: twitter.com...

Joe Biden wants everyone to wear a mask, long after the Corona-flu has passed.

China-Soros want all of us obedient to Joe, who is China-Soros's puppet.

a reply to: jrod

And you are perfectly free to wear your mask all you want wherever you want, even to bed if you want. No one is stopping you.

The point is that the choice should be allowed.

a reply to: jrod

Lol yes a pic of a guy in a Trump hat yelling and spraying spit really proves your point, that is if you were trying to prove how emotional and partisan you are.

a reply to: jrod

But so many people have had the virus and never been tested. Maybe its 20 times the cases tested, i think its higher. And if many are not showing any symptoms, the mortality rate still goes down.
What do we know. One, masks apparently don't do a whole lot to stop the spread. People are wearing masks, and they say case counts are skyrocketing. So something is wrong. Either the new case counts are false, or masks don't work. Two, children aren't affected. If mortality rate for those 18 and under is 10,000 to one, that's hardly world ending. Its dangerous for the chronically ill and elderly, definitely. Two, there's disinformation and politicizing this so we don't have any official information we can trust and we have to dig. So when Usurper Joe or wannabe dictator Governors make restrictions and talk out of their asses, we have good reason to resist listening to them. Three, lockdowns only slow herd immunity and only now are they finally reluctantly admitting that lasting immunity is the result of being infected. So why get a vaccine if you're already carrying the antibodies? It might be effective if you haven't had it, but its like getting a measles vaccine after you had it. Is it safe? Nobody knows. Face it, we have imbeciles as leaders and they're only going to get more crazy and more corrupt and more insane.

a reply to: ketsuko

Do you think someone with HIV should be 'free' to not use a condom durring a one night stand?