Trump Vs Biden Predictions

originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin

originally posted by: beyondknowledge
a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

It's politics, there are no reliable objective data points. Never has been and never will be.

So you don't actually have any data that backs up your view that Trump will win?

Any data to the question your asking is going to be subjective and open to interpretation. Look at the data from the 2016 election, it’s very similar to the numbers we’re seeing now. That’s the best I think anyone is going to be able to tell you.

There is no data carved in stone that I’m aware of that pertains to your question.

My gut tells me Biden is going to win.

I hate it , I really hate it .

But yea Joe Biden will be the next President of the United States .

a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

I am curious to know why you believe that Biden won't win, is it just faith and anecdotal.

I will tell you why I think Trump will win.

Biden apparently suffers from dementia.

I am betting that a lot of Americans don't want a person that can't remember what office he is running for (or the name of the POTUS that he is running against) with his shaky finger on the missile launch switch.

originally posted by: DBCowboy
a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

Trump will win the popular vote, the Electoral College vote.

Biden will become president.

Crazy it may seem , but I believe your absolutely right.

a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

bet on the guy you dont want to win then if he does go onto win at least you get some money

hope the bookies lose money either way

originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin
a reply to: MykeNukem

Trump will legitimately win, but the Dems will cheat and keep counting votes until he loses...

that to me opens up a whole new can of worms thats probably slightly off topic but I would have a few questions.

Firstly why you believe that and what sources are backing up your opinion?

Secondly voter fraud is very rare so what makes you think its going to happen in 2020?

There are no Black Swans, I know...I know...

How many times has the US had an election with this much mail in voting? Never...

It's ripe for fraud...not to mention the attitude of the Left towarrds Trump...

That is, if you're being honest with yourself...

No I'm not sourcing someone's opinion, to affirm my opinion..no need, thx.

The Vegas odd/line is interesting. Maybe I can recoup my losses from 4 years ago.

www.vegasinsider.com...

originally posted by: Annee

originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin

originally posted by: Annee
I do think there was a lot of complacency on the Dems side in 2016.

Many believed that Trump didn’t have a chance.

I expect less complacency this time with anti-Trump voters.

BUT — will that apply to all states?

Yeah this was one of the things I was reading a lot about in relation to polls.

One of the interesting things that one of the links In the OP talks about was that in 2016 the dems thought it was such a sure thing that lots of them just didn't vote where as for the Trump supporters as the underdogs felt they had to vote. They also talked about how the underestimated the number of "quiet Trump supporters" and have calibrated the polls for this with a slight bias in favour of Trump.

This apparently means that if we were looking at theses polls in 2020, if Biden has a 4% lead in a state (which I believe he does in Florida) it would have been a 6% lead in 2016.

This is interesting because it could mean one of two things, either the polls are underestimating now the support for the dems in which case we get a massive Biden victory. Or they haven't calibrated enough in which case we get some of the shock we had in 2016.

Right.

And 538 said they (accumulated polls) underestimated the uneducated male voter — who voted primarily for Trump.

I remember this - blaming Hillary's loss on the stupidity of the average voter. Do you think those "uneducated" voters were shamed into thinking correctly (by the left's standards)? Somehow I think not.

Condescendingly alienating voters - that's the stupidity gold medal.

a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

You couldn't change my mind anyway. I have already voted in person.

All the "scientific" information about politics is unreliable at best and biased most of the time. People are unreliable when it comes to giving out information on their personal political opinions to information organizations becaue they dont trust them. There is no way to tell what way someone will vote no mater what they said to any polsters.

You have information that lots of democrats have mailed in votes. You have no information on who they voted for. How is that information useful?

Again you have no reliable information to to base your opinion of the outcome of this election on.

originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin
if the data and expert opinion that has underpinned my prediction that Joe Biden will win then so be it.

How can you have any faith in the "data" and "expert opinion" after last election when the polls said Hillary had a 99% chance to win and all the experts were certain Trump would have no chance? I was convinced Trump would win last election, not because I paid attention to the polls and "experts", but because I watched what was actually happening in reality.
Trump beat Hillary, and you think Biden stands a chance? The people who voted for Trump last election are still voting for Trump... But a lot of former Democrat voters are getting real fed up with the Democratic party and voting Trump this election too.
The media isn't reality.

originally posted by: asabuvsobelow
My gut tells me Biden is going to win.

I hate it , I really hate it .

But yea Joe Biden will be the next President of the United States .

It's not that Biden will win, it's that trump will lose. The same scenario as 4 years ago but this time the tables have turned.

originally posted by: underpass61

originally posted by: Annee

originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin

originally posted by: Annee
I do think there was a lot of complacency on the Dems side in 2016.

Many believed that Trump didn’t have a chance.

I expect less complacency this time with anti-Trump voters.

BUT — will that apply to all states?

Yeah this was one of the things I was reading a lot about in relation to polls.

One of the interesting things that one of the links In the OP talks about was that in 2016 the dems thought it was such a sure thing that lots of them just didn't vote where as for the Trump supporters as the underdogs felt they had to vote. They also talked about how the underestimated the number of "quiet Trump supporters" and have calibrated the polls for this with a slight bias in favour of Trump.

This apparently means that if we were looking at theses polls in 2020, if Biden has a 4% lead in a state (which I believe he does in Florida) it would have been a 6% lead in 2016.

This is interesting because it could mean one of two things, either the polls are underestimating now the support for the dems in which case we get a massive Biden victory. Or they haven't calibrated enough in which case we get some of the shock we had in 2016.

Right.

And 538 said they (accumulated polls) underestimated the uneducated male voter — who voted primarily for Trump.

I remember this - blaming Hillary's loss on the stupidity of the average voter. Do you think those "uneducated" voters were shamed into thinking correctly (by the left's standards)? Somehow I think not.

Condescendingly alienating voters - that's the stupidity gold medal.

Are there emotions in statistics?

Asking for a friend.

originally posted by: UpIsNowDown

hope the bookies lose money either way

T'hey can't stay in business if they do, hence
the pollsters. This is how it works, hand in hand.

Its a racket!

Fact: There are no Blue States, there are only
blue counties. That is why the Dem's want to
get rid of the electoral college.

a reply to: trollz

There is an old expression in sports.

That's why you play the game.

Just because one team is expected to win doesn't mean the other team will roll over and play dead.

originally posted by: olaru12

originally posted by: asabuvsobelow
My gut tells me Biden is going to win.

I hate it , I really hate it .

But yea Joe Biden will be the next President of the United States .

It's not that Biden will win, it's that trump will lose. The same scenario as 4 years ago but this time the tables have turned.

Very acute reasoning.

I agree.

a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

They are both appalling candidates and its getting to the point I don't really give a toss about who wins.

I suspect the whoever wins there'll be a whole lot of whinging and moaning and the other side will not accept the result and allege malpractice of one sort or another.

The USA is riven in two and I predict it will get even worse.
Both Trump and Biden play on people's fears and actively try to deepen the divisions that are tearing the US apart.
Neither has any intention of trying to heal the wounds or try to unite the country.
They both see their paths to 'greatness' furthered by animosity and hatred.

Trump or Biden?
Neither will be good for the USA.

A slight aside; There are threads upon threads upon threads about Trump this and Biden that. Constant bickering, sniping and outright hostility.
Neither side gives an inch and its insult after insult followed by as much mud slinging as possible.

Where are the threads on specific policies of the respective candidates?
Where's the detail?

I'm sure there must be some somewhere but its obviously buried under the absolute Everest like mountain of whinging, whining, slagging each other off, vitriol, bollocks and infantile name calling.
No substance whatsoever.
Its embarrssing to watch.

And I suspect both Trump and Biden would love it.

I think most historical data is no longer usable because of social media and instant reporting that really throws a monkey wrench into the works as they have not been a part of past elections. This type of environment could cause a life long Democratic to swap to Trump in Nov 3 out of the blue over something that happens on Nov 2 and doesn't account for the silent majority that do not want anyone to know what they will vote...So polls are really wacked.

Polls like Biden has a 13 point lead in Texas is stupid to say the least, so is something like that working more on the social media than being a reality?

originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin

I guess that's possible but it looks like Biden is definitely going to take some votes off Trump.

Do not know how can you think that since Trump clearly has MORE Latino and black voters than last time. He also has the Vietnamese, Cubans and Puerto Ricans on his side.

originally posted by: Freeborn

Where are the threads on specific policies of the respective candidates?
Where's the detail?

One thing I found is when I try to talk platform, facts and accomplishments I get hit in the face with 30 FUs, Trump is Bad as the only platform coming from the left. I and others are willing to discuss any part of all this if people on the left would like to, but they don't, so what do you do?

Trump won by a small margin last time. Clinton was not a very good opponent with her "deplorables" mindset and her smug grin. If Trump was that good, he should have won by a wider margin.

Biden is utterly boring and with no charisma, even when he remembers what year it is, eh? He’s made no bad gaffs. Therefore, Biden win, even by a small swing.

Then there will be new conspiracies about how Trump was robbed, and voter fraud and how the Lizard People have won.