176 days later, 246 days into the pandemic, what do you feel is coming next?

Good morning, ATSers!

We are 246 days into the pandemic and 176 days since my first post on the subject. I have been asking for a long time about what might change your mind about the pandemic[1] and the last time I even asked how you all thought it would end[2]. Now I am asking what you think will come next? Do you think we will slowly exit the pandemic? Will be get another wave of infections as people are getting too lax? Will we get a vaccine that will take care of the problem? What do you think?

To go with and to keep with tradition, here are some updated facts about what's going on:

The United States has had over 7 million cases so far. These are ones the states and counties of the United Stated have reported. Each state has different reporting criteria. The data is a little odd for a few different reasons, but that is the first and foremost one. Cases are not the same as infections, as much as potentially 80% of infections - based on antibody studies - are mild or asymptomatic. The US could have had 35 million infections so far as a result.

To that end, at least 204,000 people have died[3] from covid-19. This is probably underreported, tbh: NYC had 300 higher deaths per day than the norm when the city was under one of the most extreme lockdowns of the country. They were not attributed to covid. The country as a whole has had higher than expected deaths since the start of the pandemic[4]. Even so, the ratio of recovery to death has greatly increased for the US. We are now down to 5% dying from the disease rather than the 10% early on in the pandemic.

Progress has been made with several vaccines entering into trials. The leading vaccine, the Oxford one, was being developed for another coronavirus - there are several, really. It had the human trials paused when a woman developed neurological disorder. it turned out to not be related to the vaccine - she was an undiagnosed multiple sclerosis case[5]. However, while the Oxford vaccine is undoubtedly in the lead, there is no way that the trial will be completed by the end of October. Even so, the US government is paying several vaccine makers to ramp up and manufacture their vaccines before they are done testing. Many of them may not be effective, but if one does work out, the US will be able to vaccinate hundreds of millions at a time. Animal trials with vaccines for covid do seem to work[6,7]. The US gov is already planning on who will get the vaccine first[8].

Russia did approve the world's first vaccine[9]. However, the data is considered suspect[10] and the size of the trials was very, very small (less than 100 people). China has been conducting its own vaccine research and injected hundreds of thousands with the experimental treatment[11]. China's military is playing a huge role in its development[12].

Somewhere, someone may get a working vaccine. However...

We have the first confirmed cases of reinfection[13]. it has been unclear whether or not the people have compromised immune systems or if we simply cannot become immune at all: there are a number of viruses like that (hello, herpes!). If its the latter, then we have a major problem and covid-19 is here to stay permanently.

Additionally, some pets - namely cats and dogs - are possible to infect with covid[14]. This brings up the uncomfortable our pets may get it and could give it to us. Or pets may act as a long term reservoir.

The United States has had far more deaths due to covid than most other countries, even proportionately. It turns out, one of the biggest risks for death by covid is obesity[15]. And the US has had a weight problem for decades now.

One last bit, there is a TON of research being done today on covid. For those who are scientifically oriented, I recommend reading the journals Science[16], Nature[17], New England Journal of Medicine[18] and the Lancet[19]. If you want good information, albeit digested a bit, then I recommend Eureka Alert[20]. For those who have a VERY strong sense of skepticism - the papers there are preprint, have NOT peer reviewed and may be outright wrong - look at Medarxiv[21] and bioarxiv[22].

There have been numerous controversies about the virus, for treatment and otherwise. I won't go into them this time. However, to help counteract the nonsense being spewed, I am putting the original sources - links to the scientific journals - even though many are definitely not scientifically trained because the media on all sides are making this pandemic into an attack on the other side politically. As a result, the US is having a information crisis[23] despite living in the so-called 'information age.' That the media seems to so bent on turning Americans against each other over the virus disgusts me. None seem to be preaching the 'come together and we can beat this.' Rather it's always about making sure you blame the Other Guys/gals for what's happening. Don't buy into it. This isn't and shouldn't be political.

Please, whomever you are, be safe and stay healthy.

That said, what is going to happen next in the pandemic?


1. This is a rabbit hole: www.abovetopsecret.com...
2. www.abovetopsecret.com...
3. www.worldometers.info...
4. www.marketwatch.com...
5. www.nature.com...
6. science.sciencemag.org...
7. science.sciencemag.org...
8. www.nature.com...
9. www.thelancet.com...(20)30402-1/fulltext
10. www.nature.com...
11. www.wsj.com...
12. www.nature.com...
13. www.statnews.com...
14. www.mayoclinic.org...
15. www.theguardian.com...
16. www.sciencemag.org...
17. www.nature.com...
18. www.nejm.org...
19. www.thelancet.com...
20. www.eurekalert.org...
21. www.medrxiv.org...
22. www.biorxiv.org...
23. www.nature.com...

a reply to: anzha

Not sure what comes next.

Hard to even gauge what's going on now.

If it's such a threat, why aren't places checking Temps upon entry? That's one of the things that always confused me.

a reply to: anzha

I disagree both with the case counts and death counts. With the majority of people having symptoms no worse than the flu, there have probably been 20+ million who have had it in the US. The death toll is probably half of the official figures, since a good portion of those deaths involved multiple comorbilities and another good chunk was from putting infected patients in nursing homes.

I really can't see how a vaccine would be highly effective when even the yearly flu vaccine is what, less than 50% effective?

Long-term, I think you will just see this as another annual type of virus

originally posted by: CriticalStinker
Not sure what comes next.

More bankruptcies, more unemployment, more Trumpy bucks, more inconsistent policies, more hysteria and more covidiots saying 'new normal'.

More lies.
Less deaths.
More unemployment.

a reply to: anzha

we have been lied to a good bit, be it severity, or infection numbers. It is political, and everyone seems to have an agenda. I think, based on what I have seen, we need to treat this like the flu. The world cannot continue to live in fear and cower indoors hoping the sickness won't come to your door. It's cold and heartless to say, but some people will die from this. And some people will die in car accidents. And some people will get cancer.

I hope that the collective "us" can gain some perspective in the very near future.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

You're cheating.... That's all implied.

originally posted by: CriticalStinker
a reply to: anzha

Not sure what comes next.

Hard to even gauge what's going on now.

If it's such a threat, why aren't places checking Temps upon entry? That's one of the things that always confused me.

I installed a network line for a thermal camera at a warehouse the other day. it reads the temperature of whatever it's pointing at, so as people walk in the door, it reads their temperature and if high, it will alarm. It sucks and works poorly, the the idea is valid. I think with some work on the tuning, that technology would work well.

Better than pointing what looks like a gun at people's heads, then expelling grade school students for chewing a pop tart into the shape of a gun.

originally posted by: CriticalStinker
You're cheating.... That's all implied.

Well, in that case it's gonna be business as unusual.

originally posted by: AugustusMasonicus

originally posted by: CriticalStinker
Not sure what comes next.

More bankruptcies, more unemployment, more Trumpy bucks, more inconsistent policies, more hysteria and more covidiots saying 'new normal'.

apparently there is plenty of money and if you need more, you just print some. The deficit isn't real.
If it was, we would be more cautious when spending Trillions giving free money away. And it's not just Trump, this is the entire government doing this. The only argument is how much needs to be spent. Like it's no big deal.

originally posted by: network dude
And it's not just Trump...

No, it isn't, but him encouraging Republicans to 'go with the higher amount' isn't exactly sound fiscal policy.

Like it's no big deal.

At this point, eff it, just give everyone a million dollars and call it a day.

a reply to: network dude

Hmmm... Maybe since I'm in an area that hasn't gotten hit hard, that's why I haven't been exposed to it.

I figured it would be more viral though, images and videos of socially distanced people waiting to get checked.

I still feel like more places should be doing it if they're going to virtue signal how dangerous leaving your house is. I don't know about everyone else, but from what I've seen as long as you're wearing a mask, you're gucci.

Then again, I'm in an area where cases per capita are trivial.

a reply to: anzha

Blind freddy could see the answers to your question.

Forced vaccinations by way of ostracization for those who decline.(until they accept)
Nano technology secretly embedded within said vaccinations more so at stage 2 vaccination.
Activation of said nano technology properties for the extermination of undesirables.

Need i go on.

originally posted by: CthruU
Nano technology secretly embedded within said vaccinations more so at stage 2 vaccination.
Activation of said nano technology properties for the undesirables.

LOL, okay, magic technology. The situation is bad enough without interjecting conspiracy woo.

a reply to: anzha

More small government people rabidly supporting a government bailout to the tune of trillions of dollars because I don’t like Donald Trump and it makes me angry.

We’ll also get to see how a pandemic that killed upwards of 200,000 out of flu season ravages the country when flu season starts.

Good times.

originally posted by: AugustusMasonicus

originally posted by: CthruU
Nano technology secretly embedded within said vaccinations more so at stage 2 vaccination.
Activation of said nano technology properties for the undesirables.

LOL, okay, magic technology. The situation is bad enough without interjecting conspiracy woo.

LOL, okay, take the blinkers of - that tunnel vision is exactly what they desire.

"Bad enough" your only at the starters gate.......seems there is more than one type of "covidiot".

I suspect the Covid 19 controversy will die out after the election. It was politicized as a weapon against Trump. After the election barring a 2nd wave it should fade away. Also they know much more about the virus than they did back in March. If nothing else they should have figured out by now what can help reduce the severity of an infection. Maybe a cocktail of Vit.D with Clorquine and or other drugs. And Vit. D supplements to prevent a infection from taking hold in the first place.

a reply to: CthruU

There is no 'nano technology' that can be injected into a person and then controlled remotely. Stop making things up.

originally posted by: AugustusMasonicus
a reply to: CthruU

There is no 'nano technology' that can be injected into a person and then controlled remotely. Stop making things up.

If it did exist, they wouldn't have to inject us.
They would put it in the bottled water that almost everyone has consumed at one time or another.

originally posted by: AugustusMasonicus
a reply to: CthruU

There is no 'nano technology' that can be injected into a person and then controlled remotely. Stop making things up.

Well, would you bet your life on that?????. Then get the vaccine but be warned your smart metre is not what you think it is.

Neither is 5G.

Believe what you will - you were warned.