Ultra Accurate PRIMARY MODEL Gives President Trump a 91 Percent Chance of Winning Nov 2020.

a reply to: Breakthestreak

Sad part is some people do like what they see.

originally posted by: UKTruth

A lot of people in the market are guessing. No one anywhere in the world has even the first clue about which way the market will head. Clever people don't try and predict the market - they make money regardless of which direction it takes. The rest are the fish.

If Trump wins then the market will move along as it has, he is basically a known Integer in their calculations. If Biden wins the market will most likely collapse at first with either a very slow or zero recovery during his 4 years mainly due to him propping up the alt left progressives that want to tear the system down and rebuild in their image where capitalism is not much of a factors in it.

speaking of cheating www.npr.org... remember THIS guy republican mark harris north carolina his operative Leslie McCrae Dowless had 7 underlings (all indicted) cheating the voting system Leslie McCrae Dowless was charged Tuesday with two counts of felony obstruction of justice, perjury, solicitation to commit perjury, conspiracy to obstruct justice and illegal possession of absentee ballots, according to a statement by Wake County District Attorney Lorrin Freeman.

yes he used both ABSENTEE ballots and THE MAIL instructing his co-conspirators to sign certifications that falsely stated they had seen a voter vote by absentee ballot, and improperly mailing in absentee ballots for someone who had not mailed it themselves.

so if these republicans would do this in a LOCAL election what makes you think there aren't republicans out there who would pull something during the PRESIDENTAL election???

and for the record I am against vote cheating wether democrats or republicasns

1 thing I will say president Trump has absolutely proven without a doubt that ANYBODY can get elected president

originally posted by: carewemust

originally posted by: neo96
a reply to: Breakthestreak

I don’t think there’s a single person on Earth who truly believes that President Trump won’t win a second term

Do NOT underestimate the hatred his detractors have, and the lengths they've gone to for the last 4 years.

There's a 100% chance of fraud for the outcome of the next election.

Right now, all news coverage that generates FEAR (Corona, BLM, ANTIFA, Unrest), and actions based on FEAR (keep schools closed!), is an attempt to make "vote by mail" widespread this November.

Especially in Swing States, where only 50,000 to 100,000 manipulated ballots can change the vote from Trump to Biden.

As Q teaches us..."keep your eye on the ball". Everything the Media and Democrats say and do this Summer, is geared towards Vote-by-Mail. A paper ballot can be changed easily, between your house and the moment it is counted.

BTW...What ever happened to all the cries for "Election Security" from Democrats?

a reply to: research100

When people say Dems are gonna steal the election they don't mean you. You're not part of their inner circle, you're just a pawn in their game.

When people say the Dems are dumb they mean the voters.

The democratic politicians are not idiots. The democratic voters...wellllll....that's a different story.

originally posted by: Daughter2

One thing that surprised me is they really don't adjust for people who will not answer the polls. (This is different than lying about who you will vote for). Prior to Trump, this may not have made a big difference but saying you support Trump could cost you your job and possible violence. The polls aren't adjusting for this difference because it's hard to gauge.

I don't answer any number I don't know. If the person really wants to talk to me they will leave a message. I can get 5 random calls a day, so no I don't answer.

originally posted by: research100

So if these republicans would do this in a LOCAL election what makes you think there aren't republicans out there who would pull something during the PRESIDENTAL election???

Could, but these type of things are typically part of the liberal play book. Big Tech is more liberal, so who do you think might do this, some guy in his Kitchen? Liberals have always been about the "grassroots" and that has many meanings to get votes. I have seen them full up school buses with homeless and pay then each 5 bucks to "vote", they are good at this stuff, not so much the republican.

All they would need to do is run names for who voted in the last 2 or 3 elections and then compare to names of who lives in a state. Register those who do not vote and create a mail in ballot for them. If over 40% of voters do not vote it would be easy to get the numbers in a swing state to swing it to your side.

We can only hope.

Democrats =

Ilhan ohmar
Defund police
BLM
LGBTQ
Open borders
Reparations

Just the most craziest and radical of ideas

I don't think normal America will let these people take charge.

But then again, they have grown in power under trump. Their power runs deep

a reply to: Scapegrace

Although you will attack the source.

based on data from Johns Hopkins. Out of the 20 most affected countries, the US also has the second highest number of coronavirus deaths per 100,000 people, behind the United Kingdom.

Link

Also with the current huge surge in cases, the death report will lag at least a week or two behind the cases.

a reply to: carewemust

Well yeah.

Does anyone with at least half a brain think that Biden could possibly beat him?

Everything was going great with the economy until a GLOBAL pandemic hit (Thanks China) Trump's economy will return and people know that.

I do NOT want to go back to a Democrat economy. No way, no how.

originally posted by: Breakthestreak
I don’t think there’s a single person on Earth who truly believes that President Trump won’t win a second term

They love to screech otherwise but deep down in the bowels of the devil, they ALL know what gonna happen in November

And I think everyone is glad that the dEms are not going to take the Whitehouse. Because, well, we’ve ALL been watching and NOBODY likes what they see.

It's precisely why they nominated Biden.

He's the fall guy. Why waste this year's election on a name they could use in 2024 against a different Republican nominee? If they let another person run, then all their dirt gets drug out now instead of 2024. Why let say....Kamala Harris take the fall when Biden is in a perfect position to do so.

He's corrupt, and they know he will likely be done with his entire political career after November.

I don't think Biden knows what's going on though. I think HE thinks that he can win.

originally posted by: camain
a reply to: FlyingSquirrel

I consider myself a blue-dog democrat. Voted Obama 2X, voted for B Clinton too. That said, first:

Trump has not polarized this nation. The democrats have by allowing the far left to be their voice.

Second:

Conservative Democrats (Southern) as well as Swing voters have very much been marginalized by the Democratic party

3rd:
I hate Trump with a holy passion. The dude is an #$#hole. He is a $h1tty president, and wish to god that the democrats would have given us something better.

4th:
The democrats have whole heartily refused to produce a quality centrist candidate. The are continuing to cater to their far left, and anyone kissing their ass can kiss mine too.

as a result of that

5: I will with great despair be voting for Trump again, then going to the bar getting a long island and crying for my nation, as the reality is our nation is so broken up by media, and the left that Trump is the best we got. Which is completely depressing.

My prediction: Trump wins. Republicans will come out no matter what to vote, as the realize that not voting will result in a Dem win. They want the Supreme court and Ginsberg will most likely be gone in the next 4. Swing votes will vote for him, because the DEMOCRATS have called them Racist, Homophobic, POS for the last 4 years. Conservative Dems will vote for him, as lets face it, seriously Biden will fix the economy? No he won't.

Camain

I felt that.

Thank you for affirming my own stance. As an Independent, I did NOT want to vote for Trump. TBH, Rand Paul was my choice. But faced with the choices the Dems keep throwing out there......

I mean, what choice do I have? Biden? Really? The man is owned by China. It's common knowledge. Not like the alleged Putin nonsense, we absolutely know Biden LOVES him some China. He was crazy in the Obama years, crazy in his past political positions, and he's crazier now.

President Trump just announced that he is going to sign an immigration reform executive order next week that includes a path to citizenship for "dreamers".

Obama left them hanging in limbo.

a reply to: chelsdh

How do you get I lost my marbles? I voted Trump last time cause Hillary was horrible. I am voting Trump this time, cause Biden is not better than him. Basically its a lesser of two evils vote, or better the devil you know.

Look the reality is the dems could have put up ANY, and I mean ANY moderate, decent centrist candidate, and that person would have won. They didn't. They played the progressive far left, continue to play the far left, and haven't stopped playing the far left.

Since your asking how I was raised, mom left when I was 12, raised by my dad until 16, when I left home and lived with my older girlfriend who became my wife. I was a latch key kid before that. So I raised me, then I worked my way up from the gutter to where I am now. I am a centrist. I want strong border controls (I married a woman on a H1 visa and it cost me almost 10k to Legally bring her in). I want Fair trade. I want the death penalty, pro-choice, pro-gun (don't own one, but I like all my neighbors having them. Free speech is a plus, though idiots with guns walking around is a bit much. Pro Nationalism, and America first. Against Foreign interventionism, and pissing away 3 trillion a year on the military. As you can see, I am basically in the middle. I am not far left, can agree with the right on several things, and agree on the left on things. I just don't agree with the extremes is all.

Camain

a reply to: camain

So very true. Every last word of it.

They just don't seem to get it. Trump's election was a total rebuke of the Obama/Clinton machine and the types of policies and ideologies they espouse. So they think Biden - who embodies every last part of that machine - was the option?

They could've picked Tulsi, it would've been a sure thing.

It’s a model. These are always used for political manipulation. Meh.


a reply to: carewemust

a reply to: carewemust

Do NOT take it for granted, get out and VOTE. This is the most important election of the past 100 years at least.

IT's only "ultra accurate" because it's been adjusted over and over again until it matches the results of elections that ALREADY took place

This sort of math is pure quackery. 91% sure that trump will win? Never count him out, but it's not looking good if you take a state by state look at the electoral college

Trump 95 vs 340 Biden, when counting states only with at least a 5% margin in polling, to account for the margin of error.

Lots can happen though in 4 months, as Walter Mondale could tell ya !

originally posted by: JBurns
a reply to: camain

So very true. Every last word of it.

They just don't seem to get it. Trump's election was a total rebuke of the Obama/Clinton machine and the types of policies and ideologies they espouse. So they think Biden - who embodies every last part of that machine - was the option?

They could've picked Tulsi, it would've been a sure thing.

Except that in reality, Trump was only elected by under 50,000 people in Ohio, and the difference in voting in many swing states was wiped out if you look at the votes Jill Stein took away from Hillary

It wasn't a rebuke of Obama/Biden policies. it was mostly a "Not Hillary" vote. This time, voters don't seem to be saying "Not Biden". Also don't forget the impact that James Comey had on the decision to vote against Hillary when he announced the email investigation results on the weekend before. Lots of people made up their mind last minute based on that, and that likely won't happen this year

Kanye West will be a non factor as a third party candidate, even if he CAN get on the ballot.

a reply to: poncho1982

All I want to add to that is: if this is how the Democrats behave when they’re losing, imagine what they’ll do when they win.

originally posted by: openminded2011
a reply to: carewemust

Do NOT take it for granted, get out and VOTE. This is the most important election of the past 100 years at least.

I think we realize that. I hope we do. For what it’s worth I’ll be voting for the first time in my 39 years.