A New Estimate of Alien Life in Our Galaxy

I hope I am in the correct place here, as it does regard possible alien life.

Christopher Conselice, a professor of astrophysics at the University of Nottingham is a co-author of the new research.

The full article is here...

New Study

I think it is extremely important and exciting because for the first time we really have an estimate for this number of active intelligent, communicating civilisations that we potentially could contact and find out there is other life in the universe...

The article goes on to mention the Drake Equation and the fact most of us already know, that only the first factor is one which can be assigned a value with any degree of accuracy. Drake's factors, for those who may not know or cannot be bothered to dig them out again, are...

1: The average number of stars to form per year in the galaxy.
2: The fraction of those stars that form planets.
3: The fraction of those planets that could support life.
4: The fraction of life-supporting planets that form life.
5: The fraction of those living planets that develop intelligent life forms.
6: The fraction of those intelligent life forms that develop technology.
7: The average lifetime of a communicating species; in other words how long a civilisation will use radio technology, leaking signals into space for us to hear.

Conselice goes on to say

Drake equation estimates have ranged from zero to a few billion [civilisations] – it is more like a tool for thinking about questions rather than something that has actually been solved,

Conselice and colleagues are using what they call the 'Astrobiological Copernican Principle' and have had a report published in the 'Astrophysical Journal', on June 15th 2020. The report can be found here...

The Atrophysical Journal report

It is a bit [a lot] over my head to read and understand their scientific and mathematical jargon, and hopefully someone on here will have the knowledge and understanding to maybe explain its inner-workings.

I grasp that the study is speculating if star and planet formations occur in a scientific, similar way and not a random or unique way, then life on other planets would evolve similar to and could even appear similar to life on Earth. The article also considers the amount of time which any technologically developed civilsation would have to be stable for, with over 6000 years being the calculation and the closest civilisation could be 17,000 light years away.

Dr Oliver Shorttle, an expert in extrasolar planets at the University of Cambridge who was not involved in the research, said several as yet poorly understood factors needed to be unpicked to make such estimates, including how life on Earth began and how many Earth-like planets considered habitable could truly support life.

Dr Patricia Sanchez-Baracaldo, an expert on how Earth became habitable, from the University of Bristol, was more upbeat, despite emphasising that many developments were needed on Earth for conditions for complex life to exist, including photosynthesis. “But, yes if we evolved in this planet, it is possible that intelligent life evolved in another part of the universe,” she said.

Personally, my belief...or hope...in life on other planets in our Universe, has swung from one extreme to the other. As a child, wanting to grow up to be an astronaut, I never even doubted life existed elsewhere but as more critical thinking set-in, my enthusiasm diminished but not extinguished, as the reality and complexities of discovering other life seemed ever more of an impossible task. I'm not getting carried away by the article, however, I do regard these moments of newfound enthusiasm to be uplifting and to serve as a reminder that nothing should be taken for granted.

There are a couple more articles on the news sites.

Astrobiological Article

Science Daily

As a believer in alien life, I am strongly fascinated by UFOs but firmly in the camp that they are not alien visitors from another world, and more in the belief they are either our own tech or possibly inter-dimensional...which is just as astonishing as visitors from another world.

Thanks for reading.

a reply to: fromtheskydown

The totally unknown factor is how many intelligent species did God create in the galaxy, or universe. No way to measure that without first locating a few of them.

originally posted by: carewemust
a reply to: fromtheskydown

The totally unknown factor is how many intelligent species did God create in the galaxy, or universe. No way to measure that without first locating a few of them.

Could be a factor, if there is a God involved.

I had to edit my post as the links to sources were not displaying properly.
Hopefully this is now fixed.

originally posted by: fromtheskydown

originally posted by: carewemust
a reply to: fromtheskydown

The totally unknown factor is how many intelligent species did God create in the galaxy, or universe. No way to measure that without first locating a few of them.

Could be a factor, if there is a God involved.

Yep. That's yet Another unknown variable.

originally posted by: carewemust
a reply to: fromtheskydown

The totally unknown factor is how many intelligent species did God create in the galaxy, or universe. No way to measure that without first locating a few of them.

Totally unknown because there is zero evidence for God nor any scientific methodologies to prove he exists.

This OP was about maths and science, not fairy tales, so your post has no value here.

Stars forming, really, any science to back this up?
People just make things up and pass it off as science and someone people just want to believe and will just mindlessly jump at the opportunity to believe

Anyway, interesting to me what people want to believe without evidence
No disrespect fromthesky, appreciate the article

originally posted by: Raggedyman
Stars forming, really, any science to back this up?

Plenty. Here’s one link: science.nasa.gov...

People just make things up and pass it off as science and someone people just want to believe and will just mindlessly

Ah. You mean the existence of God? Agreed.

originally posted by: noonebutme

originally posted by: carewemust
a reply to: fromtheskydown

The totally unknown factor is how many intelligent species did God create in the galaxy, or universe. No way to measure that without first locating a few of them.

This OP was about maths and science, not fairy tales, so your post has no value here.

This is what I was talking about, believers with faith in nothing, people who read it was written by a scientist so believe it’s real science though lacks anything at all
Let’s see the evidence a believer has to offer, let’s ask and watch as the believer in faith science starts backpedaling, starts to attack and offer nothing over 5 pages.



You couldn’t show me the maths and science in this report, the scientific methodology you so happily reference could you “noonebutme” for a little experiment I am hosting

originally posted by: noonebutme

originally posted by: Raggedyman
Stars forming, really, any science to back this up?

Plenty. Here’s one link: science.nasa.gov...

People just make things up and pass it off as science and someone people just want to believe and will just mindlessly

Ah. You mean the existence of God? Agreed.

I asked for science, not children’s stories
It would be good you go study what scientific evidence is, that website had nothing but kids stories, well done.

You are proving my point instantly and perfectly
There was no scientific evidence offered at all yet, faith, your god

Let there be light works for me. Great thread. Great questions. Add in the multiverse and watch heads explode.... Do you get the point here ? However 36 contactable places works for me and I hope we find them soon because I would like to talk to them.

a reply to: fromtheskydown

Saw this recently. It's an interesting approach to filling out the unknowns in the Drake equation.

Uhm, to the people arguing...science isn't just certainty, you know. It's also a lot of mapping out theoretical possibilities, modeling them based on specified givens (which may not necessarily be subjected to any standard of proof, like thought experiments), and making estimates of what observations are expected. You two are kinda just showing that you're not trained scientists, with these grandiose pronouncements about what science is or isn't, and giving off signs that you might be a tad unpleasant at parties as well...

It's not just peer review and the empirical method.

S+F to OP.

originally posted by: Raggedyman
Stars forming, really, any science to back this up?
People just make things up and pass it off as science and someone people just want to believe and will just mindlessly jump at the opportunity to believe

Anyway, interesting to me what people want to believe without evidence
No disrespect fromthesky, appreciate the article

No disrespect taken. I am always happy that a post's subject can be looked at from many different angles. I don't have a faith in the religious sense...I'm not sure if I have a faith in anything, except myself...I was brought up with a Christian Mother and a Catholic father, which is strange in itself but both of them didn't practise.

I certainly don't believe everything the science tells us, as scientists are only human and I believe they can be prone to error and possibly bias as well. To be alone in the Universe would be awful, in my opinion. If we ever do make contact and we discover there is a thread of common thought and consciousness, then surely that would be a good thing.

originally posted by: bluemooone2
Let there be light works for me. Great thread. Great questions. Add in the multiverse and watch heads explode.... Do you get the point here ? However 36 contactable places works for me and I hope we find them soon because I would like to talk to them.

Thanks and the multi-verse? Yes, it brings infinite possibilities to the argument and is certainly a mind-boggling concept in itself. Could we be living in a busy existence without actually meeting anybody else, as if being alone ina crowd?

I try, within my limited ability, to comprehend scale and possibilities and think "Well, why not?" As probably happens with most people, the mind-boggle starts to overwhelm and I give in trying to grasp the enormity because it is easier to exist and function within a smaller scale. I suppose this ability is greater in some and is what allows them to attempt to further our knowledge.

originally posted by: Raggedyman
I asked for science, not children’s stories
It would be good you go study what scientific evidence is, that website had nothing but kids stories, well done.

You mean apart from it telling how stars form? You didn’t receive an education, did you? I learned about these basics in high school...

Ok, how about this: science.howstuffworks.com...

Or is that also made up? Another fairy tale?

If you don’t want to accept it, then fair enough, so I guess the only answer for raggedyman is, “God did it”, huh? That’s the only answer you’ll accept I suppose.

originally posted by: fromtheskydown
I certainly don't believe everything the science tells us, as scientists are only human and I believe they can be prone to error and possibly bias as well. To be alone in the Universe would be awful, in my opinion. If we ever do make contact and we discover there is a thread of common thought and consciousness, then surely that would be a good thing.

And I don’t think any scientist would say science is unquestionable - that’s exactly how it progresses, through questioning and testing.

Even now, science is constantly evolving and learning from its mistakes. As our knowledge and tech capabilities expand, so does our ability to finer-tune our knowledge on things we thought we knew.

And that’s the beauty of science. Unlike religion, science can change and evolve. Religion cannot.

So when ole Raggedyman says he doesn’t know of any science backing up star formation, well... that’s just ridiculous. There’s plenty of evidence.

I will always trust an astrophysicist over how the universe works than any person of claimed faith.

a reply to: noonebutme

Totally unknown because there is zero evidence for God nor any scientific methodologies to prove he exists.

This OP was about maths and science, not fairy tales, so your post has no value here.

Noone, you said “scientific methodology”, “maths” and “science” was in the op, I simply asked you show me the scientific evidence because I have seen none so, here is your chance, show me the science
Please stop showing me people writing assumptions and faith statements about stars, real science

I am pretty sure you don’t know what scientific evidence really is

From my comprehension, you think some space particles just gather together get hot and make a sun, just like that.
That is scientific whoo, scientific religion, faith, kidding yourself if you think it’s thermodynamics

Reports like the one above are religious statements disguised as science

originally posted by: noonebutme

originally posted by: carewemust
a reply to: fromtheskydown

The totally unknown factor is how many intelligent species did God create in the galaxy, or universe. No way to measure that without first locating a few of them.

Totally unknown because there is zero evidence for God nor any scientific methodologies to prove he exists.

This OP was about maths and science, not fairy tales, so your post has no value here.

The theory of a creation has been gathering steam among quantum physicists as they learn more and delve deeper.
Where ya been for the last 20+ years ?
Know the subject before you post on the subject .

Drake's equation was a humorous example of how probability could be used in astronomy .
That was all .

Earth has life on every corner and environment. Teeming and bursting with life.

Out there, nothing.

a reply to: fromtheskydown

Interestingly, it all comes down to a #1. A single multi-universe of universes without end ...

In the end? We must accept all is everything. We aren't all, and added together? We become "1".

Infinitely boggles the mind...