US Presidential Election 2020: How Will Civil Unrest Help or Hurt Each Candidate?

Don't let the absence of a question mark in the opening title fool you: this is meant as a question to the forum.

Note that
- I'm assuming that the candidates for the election with be President Trump and Senator Biden
- PLEASE REFRAIN FROM NON-FACTUAL INSULTS/TAKEDOWNS, IRRELEVANCT SLANDERS OF EITHER CANDIDATE (this isn't the mudpit)

Please describe how the events of the past few days either will help, hinder or have little impact in the political fortunes of both Trump and Biden.

----------------------------

My gut feeling at this moment is that the protests and riots will help BOTH candidates; here's why.

President Trump's political base is drawn (shocker!!) from many Red States, as this map shows. Note that for the most part, the largest pockets of civil unrest, occurred in Blue States, where the major urban areas of our country are located, NY, LA, Chicago, etc. Again, not a particularly insightful thought. When Trump was campaigning in '16, one of the central themes he ran on was "Law and Order". I heard him call himself the candidate of "Law and Order" many times during debates. This message resonated to some in '16, and I feel Trump is going to go back to the well and hammer away at that theme x10 in the upcoming elections. From a strategic standpoint, really Trump doesn't need to alter his campaign messaging in the wake of the unrest to a large degree, because his path to re-election runs through the same electoral map from above, many Red States without concentrations of urban population centers. Looking at the electoral map, I don't see opportunities for Biden to flip Trump states based on what we've seen; consider that Minnesota, epicenter of the unrest, was already Blue.

For Senator Biden, we can guess his strategy is going to target his message and mold his campaign to speak to those in the areas most impacted by the unrest, i.e. urban areas with diverse population demographic. If he crafts his messaging appropriately, this is his chance to win over minority voters that he may have alienated with his remarks questioning the "blackness" of those voting for Trump. Biden can use the unrest as a cudgel to bash Trump, not only policies under Trump's tenure but how his reactions to the unrest were perceived. So if Biden doesn't screw it up, this is his 'olive branch' to the black community, a chance to reconcile for his previous statements that were not received well.

In the end, my take is, the support and criticism of the unrest is pretty much broken along pre-existing party fault lines, so all it'll do is amplify existing voting patterns.

I think had the protests remained non-violent, it'd been a golden opportunity for the Democrats to make inroads in some undecided/independent voters in Trumps base, e.g. white rural areas. I think the length and severity of the riots drowned out the voices of the legitimate protests.

Trump also might've had an opportunity to capitalize had he maybe tried a more conciliatory/empathetic tact in the events, but his main messaging and statements occurred well after the original incident, and seemed to ramp up when the rioting started.

TL;DR
My opinion is that the only outcome of all this will be to reinforce existing opinions and voting patterns. If anything voting participation may be higher, but due to polarization, I don't see these events having any significant role in flipping the electoral state map linked above.

a reply to: SleeperHasAwakened

I don't think it's done anything one way or the other for Biden. No one was voting for him anyway except old white democrats.

But I think it will encourage a lot of urban small business owners to vote in line with the President. Everyone who's family was impacted by these thugs given free reign to destroy their neighborhoods...

But we'll see.

I think it is just too early to tell... It all depends how it will all unfold. But I do like the question, it is something to keep an eye on.
I think the media narrative will be a big factor in this all.

a reply to: SleeperHasAwakened

Hasn't had any effect on me, I was and still going to vote for Trump. What's the alternative higher taxes, higher unemployment with the green new deal under biden? No thanks.

Interesting analysis.. but we should not vote for either. Democrats and Republicans are failing us. The two party system is, at its core, divisive.

a reply to: SleeperHasAwakened

No effect at all.
Decisions have already been made by people.

I'm mainly interested in IF people think these events will have a negative or positive impact on either candidates campaign, and if so, why.

That said, "Too early to tell" and "events won't help/hurt either candidate" are also valid responses, and part of me agrees with both sentiments (this thing is still not over and could have more twists and turns, but ultimately my view is that the unrest will just cement existing opinions)

To Trump supporters it'll justify their desire to vote for him.
To anti-Trumpers it'll justify their desire to vote for the opposition.
That about sums it up.

It's a little too early to tell. If the election were held today I think Trump could be in trouble. The Left are revved up and Trump's stunt on Monday rubbed a lot of religious people the wrong way.

originally posted by: blueman12
Interesting analysis.. but we should not vote for either. Democrats and Republicans are failing us. The two party system is, at its core, divisive.

Thank You Jeebus!
Good to see someone else gets it. I've been voting all 3rd party for 40 years. Libertarians are finally getting close to becoming a contender. I believe that a 3 party system would force 2 parties into an alliance to get things done, while a 2 party system often ends in a standoff with the accompanying malaise. Go 3rd Parties !!

a reply to: SleeperHasAwakened

Bold of you to assume there’ll be an election.

originally posted by: underwerks
a reply to: SleeperHasAwakened

Bold of you to assume there’ll be an election.

Why? Because you and your ANTIFA buds are going to hold it hostage?

Current events changes nothing.

Just like when they lied about Russia changed nothing.

Just like when they lied about Ukraine it changed nothing.

Just like when they lied about Kavanugh it changed nothing.

Just like their lying about 'peaceful' protesting it changed nothing.

The trench's were dug long ago.

Blue will vote BLue also the fact they're protesting their own control they have for decades so they will rinse and repeat.

Red will vote Red because we've all seen through the lies.

Independents still sit on the fence at this point which is ridiculous.

Nothings changed.

Can’t say recent events have pulled me one way or the other as I’m not voting for either side. If anything, both sides have done nothing but disgust me for the last several years and they both need to be knocked off their perches.

Last I knew, we were the United States of America. The divisiveness coming from both sides, the posturing, antics, straight up BS is pulling the country apart and look where we’re at right this very second.

Together we stand, divided we fall.

a reply to: neo96

You act like independents aren't the ones that decide elections.

a reply to: Xcalibur254

The great deciders of this next election is going to be the looters/rioters victims.

There's literally thousands.

Need to see Joe Biden's tax plan. If he lowers it more than Trump he has my vote. Rest of it do not care. If blacks are so concerned about police violence join the police force in droves and impact the situation. They are not going to do that so it's apparently not that big of a deal. A better movement would be Black Police Matter and cause some real change instead of crying about it.

originally posted by: watchitburn
I don't think it's done anything one way or the other for Biden. No one was voting for him anyway except old white democrats.

That may not necessarily be true. The moment Trump announced he was going to utilize the military, one of the people I know on FB came out in disgust to say that he'll now "vote blue no matter who". He's in his mid to late 30's.

Now to be fair, though, this guy is a pretty hardcore democrat with partial TDS, so there's a chance he was just virtue signalling because he was probably going to go that route anyway, but those were his words.

Well one thing hasn't changed. Black voters must be the most important voters on the face of the earth. It must be weird to be black and to have so much political clout with the left and yet never ever gain anything from their programs except more poverty and more cultural rot.

I would say if the election were held today almost all blue voting areas will write in Barack Obama. All Red areas Trump. All purple areas depend on lord knows what.

Biden, he still seems like a joke. I knew the speech he gave the other day was unusual for him but I am pretty sure he was pumpled up on adrenochrome, speed, steroids, and a bottle of scented little girl hair.

I wonder if they just started sewing little girl hair under his skin if he would turn into some sort of bizarre alter ego "super" hero.

a reply to: SleeperHasAwakened

I honestly don't think any voters have changed their minds.

We are going to see a repeat of 2016 but with fewer votes cast.