Antibody Studies Of Spain And France Show Just 5% Of Population Has Been Infected

Yet another survey here in the UK suggests that infection rate here is currently at 0.27% of the total population.

www.bbc.co.uk...
www.ons.gov.uk... 14may2020

Which seems strange to me given that its been widely reported that there have been 233,151 confirmed cases in the UK with 33,614 deaths.

Now that only equates to an infection rate of 0.4% with a mortality rate of just over 14% of known cases but and an overall mortality rate of 0.05% of total population.

I guess the point I'm trying to make is that no-one really knows yet and anyone with even the barest understanding of dtatistics can manipulate them to push whatever message they choose to.

Unless we know how many people have been actively exposed to the virus, how many of those became infected, how many infected required treatment and how many of them were severe and how many died then the numbers don't really mean much I'm afraid to say.

a reply to: Pilgrum

Ill be the first to say my medical knowledge could probably fit in a thimble..

But I thought we read that the early antibody tests in new York and Los angles were showing a much larger segment of the population had it than previously believed.

Seems strange that one continent seems ( assuming what was reported in the states is correct) shows a much more rapid spread yet 2 in Europe show a much much slower spread.... somebodies math is way off. (main reason I pointed at the early death predictions)

a reply to: Irishhaf

I was allowing for the 1.4 million confirmed cases being only 20% of the real number of infected cases which includes those who've had it and recovered without being tested so that makes the CFR just a fifth of what the known numbers suggest.

Even with that considerable reduction in CFR, letting the virus loose to go nationwide to achieve the sought herd immunity as quickly as possible could result in millions of fatalities unless the majority of vulnerable people have already succumbed. That appears to be a huge gamble to me considering the overload on health services.

perhaps if we started to address the vitamin D Deficiency Pandemic and the high obesity causing diseases we will see less serve cases. With treatments of Zinc and a zinc ionophore for those without a known heart condition - I.E. only given if confirmed cleared by Cardiologists.

We could use the summer months to lessen the impact of a 2nd wave especially in the hard hit populations.

a reply to: infolurker
The mayor of Boston just decided not to re-open the city because anti-body tests say not enough people have been exposed to Covid-19. His career as mayor is finished.