The Asian Flu and the Hong Kong flu were just as bad as CoVid-19 100,000 dead each

a reply to: rigel4

a reply to: rigel4

Covid could yet kill millions ... we just dont know.

We don’t know yet but so far the models are compatible .

When it mutates it could fizzle out, or could be an ELE.

There has only been one major mutation identified for Covid 19 so far and it seems to make it less transmittable . ( The mutation doesn’t bond as well to the ACE2 receptor .

Covid 19 mutates half as fast as seasonal influenza .

Likely somewhere in between ... but its NO Flu strain!

Why does everybody keep saying that like it’s a victory in a discussion ?. I’ve never said it was a flu strain .

All I’ve been doing is comparing statistics and proving that Covid 19 could be less deadly than some strains of the flu .

originally posted by: Fallingdown
a reply to: rigel4

a reply to: rigel4

Covid could yet kill millions ... we just dont know.

We don’t know yet but so far the models are compatible .

When it mutates it could fizzle out, or could be an ELE.

There has only been one major mutation identified for Covid 19 so far and it seems to make it less transmittable . ( The mutation doesn’t bond as well to the ACE2 receptor .

Covid 19 mutates half as fast as seasonal influenza .

Likely somewhere in between ... but its NO Flu strain!

Why does everybody keep saying that like it’s a victory in a discussion ?. I’ve never said it was a flu strain .

All I’ve been doing is comparing statistics and proving that Covid 19 could be less deadly than some strains of the flu .



Its all good here... just putting i my 2 cents worth.
Maybe i misunderstood the Flu part

Take care of yourself .

originally posted by: Fallingdown
All I’ve been doing is comparing statistics and proving that Covid 19 could be less deadly than some strains of the flu.

If I'm not mistaken, Asian flu killed 116K in the US over 2 flu seasons. That is 58K a year. Covid 19 has killed more than that in the last 30 days. It has already proven to be deadlier than the asian flu.

Hong Kong flu was considered milder because it killed 70K-100K. CV totals 77K in a little over 2 months. If things continue the same it would have gone past the upper estimate in 2 weeks.

If we adjust for population we can double the numbers for those two pandemics and wait and see what the next 2 months brings.

a reply to: daskakik

If I'm not mistaken, Asian flu killed 116K in the US over 2 flu seasons. That is 58K a year. Covid 19 has killed more than that in the last 30 days. It has already proven to be deadlier than the asian flu.

You’re not really mistaken but you’re certainly oversimplifying the path the virus took. It was recognized in February 1957 in Asia and reach the USA by June 1957.

The first wave was minimal originally it didn’t have a major impact although deaths and cases were reported.

But luckily we had a Guy for the job. Maurice Hilleman was a “ I don’t give a #” about your regulations or orders kind of guy.

When he first heard about the infections in Asia he immediately asked for samples . He didn’t follow federal regulations because he knew complications they would calls. As he said “I simply bypass them”.

The second wave of the Asian flu started in November 1957 and lasted until March .

In the first months of the 1957 flu pandemic, the virus spread throughout China and surrounding regions. By midsummer it had reached the United States, where it appears to have initially infected relatively few people. Several months later, however, numerous cases of infection were reported, especially in young children, the elderly, and pregnant women. This upsurge in cases was the result of a second pandemic wave of illness that struck the Northern Hemisphere in November 1957. At that time the pandemic was also already widespread in the United Kingdom. By December a total of some 3,550 deaths had been reported in England and Wales. The second wave was particularly devastating, and by March 1958 an estimated 69,800 deaths had occurred in the United States.

Source
Multiply that number by two to adjust for population.
That’s around 140,000 deaths in a five month. With a vaccine available.

For comparison Covid 19 in the US started in January. As of May (5 months later ). It has caused about 79,000

The Hong Kong flu which also had a “ Second wave 1969 to 1970) in the US would’ve also been far worse. Had it not been for the fact that some of the population had developed immunity. From exposure to the Hong Kong flu’s ancestor the Asian flu.

That’s something we won’t have with the total lockdown.

It’s almost as if they planned for the US to be devastated by a second wave. Nowhere in history has an entire nation of healthy people been quarantine. The sick are always the ones quarantine.

What everyone should be doing instead of trying to pick my OP apart.

Is asking yourselves why doesn’t the media make any comparison on a regular basis to the Asian and Hong Kong flu’s?

They’ve gone overboard comparing covid 19 to the seasonal flu.

I can’t believe I get to say this. Lol

The swine flu, Asian flu and Hong Kong flu’s aren’t the flu. They are flu pandemics and when they emerged they were all “novel viruses” .


PS

Now I see were fixating on numbers. When this is all said and done if CV kills 10,000 people more than the Asian flu. Are you trying to claim it makes a difference ?

What is the exact total you would place on human life to make the two non-comparable ?

I believe I put this in the OP if not I’ll go on record. I don’t care if there’s 50,000+ lives differents.

I want to know how they can justified departing from their long held norms and quarantining a nation of healthy people .They’ve never done it before .

Why now?

If this was an investigation of a crime the first thing you would look for is motive .

Who has the most to gain ?

a reply to: Fallingdown

We are fixating on numbers because that was the argument made in the OP.

There really isn't a total lockdown. People are still moving around, fidgeting with their facemasks, shaking hands and then touching their face. Now countries are talking about easing the lockdowns. Herd immunity will be had sooner or later. The lockdowns were placed just to slow things down.

Since the argument is "this is less deadly than asian flu or hong kong flu", even if it kills the same number of people, that claim is false.

Until the dust settles we won't know and the numbers keep rising.

Like I said, lets see what the next 2 months bring. Could swing either way.

a reply to: Fallingdown

Re: www.worldometers.info...

228 Covid-19 deaths per 1 million Americans, over the past 3 months, is nothing to be overly concerned about. Certainly not to the degree that 90% of our media, and certain fear-mongering politicians say we should be.

But its up to each person to decide is one additional minor threat to life, is too much for him/her.

a reply to: daskakik

a reply to: daskakik

We are fixating on numbers because that was the argument made in the OP.

Did you even read the OP?

Even if CV ends up with 150,000 (that’s called a generalization) . It shows Covid 19 was a huge overreaction by the democrats and their media.

That was the point of my OP . “ Overreaction “

I did and gold you with some of your off-topic strawmen.

Talking about Sweden I said comparison to other Nordic countries is Cherry picking . You brought them up immediately anyway .

In our debate about per capita deaths. You tried to exclude everyone but the Nordic countries or similar sized countries. More cherry picking . Because I was referring specifically to western European countries.

Then you tried to claim that because infections started at different times in different countries the per capita death rate didn’t matter . I had to explain that was nonsense, numbers are numbers .

Then you tried to correct me on the statistics for all three of the viruses. Because of how many months each took to accumulate the death toll. Apparently you realized that was incorrect because without answering again you shifted to.

Taking words literally . So now you’re telling me that it isn’t really a “ lockdown” because people are moving about.

Like I said I did engage you for a while and off-topic conversation. Mainly because the inquiries were so naïve in nature. I felt obligated .

You tried to set up strawman after strawman only to have me kick them down repeatedly.

Since the argument is "this is less deadly than asian flu or hong kong flu", even if it kills the same number of people, that claim is false

Ignoratio elenchi fallacy.

That’s not the argument that’s A irrelevant position.

Your conclusion is completely incorrect concerning my OP.

My position is that the media and Democrats overreacted. I used the Asian and Hong Kong flu’s as an example.

Your attempts have been futile trying to use statistics. Yet you’re still trying........

Until the dust settles we won't know and the *numbers keep rising.

* see above 1st quote generalization

Here’s the very first sentence of my 0P.

If not worse it depends on how this one plays out

Does that sound familiar? Heck you just said it. If only you had read my 0P. 🤷‍♂️

I even addressed my position again in the OP......

In 1957 the US population was around 127 million. So we can double these numbers for comparison to CoVid 19. Call it 200,000 dead . Yet it’s no more than a blip in history , to the point most people have never heard of it.

Which makes it another example of how the politicians and the media are blowing everything out of proportion..

Sorry you might be in some kind of contest with fatalities. I’m not when it gets above 100,000 it doesn’t f-ing matter.

Now is there any chance whatsoever you can give me a answer ?

A straight answer no more if , ands or butts.

Did the media and Democrats overreact? Especially when there are *similar comparisons from the past?

Now in an effort to prevent a predictable reply......

*similar
adjective
1. resembling without being identical.

Yes or no?

P.S

In the future before you start telling me my premise is incorrect. I certainly would appreciate it if you knew what my premise actually was.

a reply to: Fallingdown
And it being an overreaction is based on the numbers.

Now you say you don't care if it is 50K+, then why bring any numbers into it?

I can't say if the media and politicians overreacted because I don't know what the final numbers will be. Neither do you.

a reply to: carewemust

I agree.

I never really felt that anything I wrote in my OP would sink in to the Covid 19 cheerleading squads on the left .

I just hoped that those people would wonder why the media doesn’t use the asian for Hong Kong flus for comparison. Instead they blow everything off as the seasonal flu .

Sometimes the data that people don’t see has more effective than the normal narrative .

A “ why don’t they show me that “ moment . 🤔

a reply to: daskakik

Now you say you don't care if it is 50K+, then why bring any numbers into it?

No...... I said it the second paragraph in the OP . 50,000 was a arbitrary number to point out I didn’t care what the numbers were.

I can't say if the media and politicians overreacted because I don't know what the final numbers will be. Neither do you.

Thats a cop out.

Just like when I ask you if we have ever quarantined the a nation of healthy people before.

You had to pretend I meant every single person in the US wasn’t allowed to leave their houses . 🤦‍♂️

You are not honest enough to give a straight answer .

I’m done with you .

Go play your little games somewhere else . I’m getting tired of shooting down your replies and making you look silly .

Now claim you won and pat yourself on the back.

Because that’s that’s what predictable people who lost a discussion do .

a reply to: Fallingdown

So, if the numbers are arbitrary why point out the numbers of those 2 pandemics?

Just like when I ask you if we have ever quarantined the a nation of healthy people before.

You had to pretend I meant every single person in the US wasn’t allowed to leave their houses.

You literally said:

The Hong Kong flu which also had a “ Second wave 1969 to 1970) in the US would’ve also been far worse. Had it not been for the fact that some of the population had developed immunity. From exposure to the Hong Kong flu’s ancestor the Asian flu.

That’s something we won’t have with the total lockdown.

Emphasis was yours.

I'm glad you are done trying to convince yourself that only you have the right answers.

I won't be patting myself on the back just yet. I'm going to let time tell if this pandemic is or isn't similar to the 2 in the OP.

You are right about one thing, healthy people were not locked-down and the vaccine helped to reduce the numbers, which you mentioned in a previous post, but there was a working flu vaccine since the 1940's. Maybe tech will ride in like the cavalry in old school westerns.

By the way, Sweden just moved up to 9 on the per capita list. The Swedish model is not done performing yet.

a reply to: daskakik

a reply to: daskakik

So, if the numbers are arbitrary why point out the numbers of those 2 pandemics?

Arbitrary

Adjective

based on random choice or personal whim, rather than any reason or system.


MATHEMATICS
(of a constant or other quantity) of unspecified value.

I didn’t point out the numbers specifically. You keep pointing out the numbers specifically. Again the numbers didn’t matter it was the comparison of situations.

Your argument has been one fallacy after another. You wouldn’t even have an argument if you weren’t trying to twist words to your liking.

WIKI

In logic, equivocation (‘calling two different things by the same name') is an informal fallacy resulting from the use of a particular word/expression in multiple senses within an argument.[1][2]
It is a type of ambiguity that stems from a phrase having two distinct meanings, not from the grammar or structure of the sentence.

Your definitionof a word or phrase isn’t the only definition or intent of that word or phrase.

You played The same game with the word “ lockdown or quarantine”. Trying to assert I meant every man, woman, child dog and pony would be quarantined and not allowed to leave your house.

If you continued with that fallacy your reply will be dogs and ponies don’t have houses.

You’re reasoning when I use the word quarantine combined another fallacy into the argument.

In logic, reductio ad absurdum (Latin for '"reduction to absurdity"'), also known as argumentum ad absurdum (Latin for "argument to absurdity"), apagogical arguments, negation introduction or the appeal to extremes,

is a form of argument that attempts to establish a claim by showing that the opposite scenario would lead to absurdity or contradiction.[1][2] It can be used to disprove a statement by showing that it would inevitably lead to a ridiculous, absurd, or impractical conclusion

That’s something we won’t have with the total lockdown.

See above

And if there is a *total lockdown (* see above ) We won’t build up the immunities that would help in a second wave.

I won't be patting myself on the back just yet. I'm going to let time tell if this pandemic is or isn't similar to the 2 in the OP.

We’ve been over this before see first sentence in the OP .

You are right about one thing, healthy people were not locked-down and the vaccine helped to reduce the numbers, which you mentioned in a previous post, but there was a working flu vaccine since the 1940's. Maybe tech will ride in like the cavalry in old school westerns.

Oh what the hell I think I’ll play the game you’ve been playing.

You were wrong there was no working vaccine for the 1957 Asian virus in 1940. You don’t know what you’re talking about.

That’s a good example of most of your arguments. Of course I knew the time period you were talking about. I also knew you were correct except for a little slip. I would’ve never pointed it out because I understood what you meant without taking every word literally. But you haven’t given me the same courtesy.

By the way, Sweden just moved up to 9 on the per capita list. The Swedish model is not done performing yet.

Case in point......

Have you looked at the Swedish or Turkish models . The Swedish model worked Per capita and out performed Italy, Spain, France ,the UK and Belgian among others . To head you off you can’t compare the Swedish model to other Nordic countries only. That’s just cherry picking statistics .

Wow you really got me!!!

Instead of “worked” I should’ve said “is working”.

I am humbled by your intellect.

Because your definition of the word “worked” is the only definition.

a reply to: Fallingdown
You seem to be doing a lot of mental gymnastics.

You did point out the number of deaths in those two pandemics and even adjusted the population to the current one to drive the point home.

The point about the flu vaccine wasn't about a vaccine being worked on for asian flu in 1940 but about the tech to develop one quickly being there in 1957. If it hadn't been there there may have been measures similar to the ones being seen today.

I never said anything about the word "worked". I was actually thinking more about "out performed". If it is still in process you can't really say it outperformed anything.

My point all along is that you are coming to conclusions prematurely because we have not seen if this pandemic is "similar" to the ones in your OP.

a reply to: daskakik

You seem to be doing a lot of mental gymnastics

If that’s what you call pointing out bull# we’re games you’re right Z



My point all along is that you are coming to conclusions prematurely because we have not seen if this pandemic is "similar" to the ones in your OP.


Well then you didn’t have a horse in the race in the first place. Just nonsense and excuses .

Here’s the first sentence of my OP .

If not worse it depends on how this one plays out.

My God how dense are you ?

Here’s my answer to your next reply .

If not worse it depends on how this one plays out.

And the next reply

if not worse it all depends on how it plays out .

a reply to: Fallingdown

And then all along the thread you oppose stats that show it might actually be worse than those 2 pandemics.

Maybe you should have waited to see "how this one plays out" before making the thread.

a reply to: daskakik

And then all along the thread you oppose stats that show it might actually be worse than those 2 pandemics.

Give me a link to the post showing when I said numbers would change my opinion .(not a Cherry picked quote) . Hmmmmm?

a reply to: Fallingdown

Who said it would change your opinion?

I said you opposed stats that show it might actually be worse than those 2 pandemics. Your opinion has nothing to do with that.

a reply to: daskakik

Can’t back what you said .

Go figure ?

a reply to: Fallingdown
You are right, I can't back what you think I said, when I never said it.

Let's just let this thread fade to black.

I'll be doing my part.

a reply to: daskakik

Nope not a chance .

The party is just getting started .

You’ve been playing your game the last couple days .

.😘

You are right, I can't back what you think I said, when I never said it.

.

Well then let’s just start at the beginning of the things you got wrong list and check them off one by one .


I didn’t think you said everything. Everything you said I tore down . One after another after another .

For example this was your first reply to me and it wasn’t even addressed do you.

Note “Head off” cause you must missed id . Play attention to “per capita” cause you miss that too. Last but not least in the first person why not use the equivocation ? “Worked “ you pretended I used it in the context that everything is over with. Instead of the way I which was up till now.

That fallacy is the basis for most of your positions any.

* Kreskin (you’re probably going to say that after your next reply)

Pretending I said it worked and it’s all over with .



Me

Have you looked at the Swedish or Turkish models . The Swedish model worked Per capita and out performed Italy, Spain, France ,the UK and Belgian among others . To head you off you can’t compare the Swedish model to other Nordic countries only. That’s just cherry picking statistics .

Not to mention you skipped turkey. Which I blew out of the water anyway

I already have your position covered.(nordic) But you posted it anyway.

Except the neighbors on either side who did lockdown, Finland and Norway have a per capita death rate of 45 and 40 respectively. How is having a per capita death rate 6.5 and 7.2 times their neighbors a good thing?

Which brings us back to the other word you must’ve overlooked “ Per capita”. You seem to have forgotten there’s hundreds of countries not just Nordic ones. I specified which countries I was talking about.

out performed Italy, Spain, France ,the UK and Belgian among others

Reply

As we progress again do you mind if I keep count?

#1 😘