The Myth Of A Rapid Economic Recovery Once Quarentines Are Lifted

a reply to: olaru12

What's really effed is the ability to have some discretionary income now to actually be able to afford more expensive American made goods is gone for many so they have even more need for that cheap Chinese crap.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

But the bottom line is that an American cannot buy anything without an income. That income must come from somewhere. There must be some sort of domestic production somewhere to start the ball rolling. Even if you gather and sell apples before buying Chinese finger cuffs...

originally posted by: AugustusMasonicus
a reply to: olaru12

What's really effed is the ability to have some discretionary income now to actually be able to afford more expensive American made goods is gone for many so they have even more need for that cheap Chinese crap.

So you don't think the "trickle down" economy will save us? It's always worked in the past.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

American made goods are good, but getting them to a guy in Britain or Europe ordering on his computer has a real problem. The Chinese postal cost to him is free, or greatly subsidized. the Mail from America is usually more than the goods are worth. The reason being China gets assisted postal rates as a developing country. How ridiculous !

originally posted by: Ahabstar
But the bottom line is that an American cannot buy anything without an income. That income must come from somewhere. There must be some sort of domestic production somewhere to start the ball rolling. Even if you gather and sell apples before buying Chinese finger cuffs...

Yeah? Okay? The point of my thread is that has been seriously impacted.

originally posted by: anonentity
American made goods are good, but getting them to a guy in Britain or Europe ordering on his computer has a real problem. The Chinese postal cost to him is free, or greatly subsidized. the Mail from America is usually more than the goods are worth. The reason being China gets assisted postal rates as a developing country. How ridiculous !

Postal costs are really a sidebar conversation to the financial hardships these lockdowns created, the existed before, the lockdowns didn't.

This is one of the customers that our company services.

One struggling kid's restaurant, though, might not open back up at all. You may know it as a birthday party hot spot, but Chuck E. Cheese's has over 610 locations across 47 states. Unfortunately, the CEC Entertainment company that owns Chuck E. Cheese is over $900 million in debt. Leaders are trying to raise $200 million to prevent filing for bankruptcy, according to the Wall Street Journal.Source

They aren't the only customers we handle that are in deep trouble. I can only discuss it here when it becomes public by there are quite a few national brands that are on the verge of bankruptcy.

Thank the Baby Jesus we shut the country down.

The "economy" is too broad a spectrum to fall under one umbrella statement like "rapid recovery".

Some sectors will recover faster than others but I think restoring pre-covid conditions is easier said than done. I might go as far as to say that some things will never be the same as they were no matter how long we wait.

I can see some good coming from all of this if manufacturing returns to the US. Over the last 20 years or so many US manufacturers migrated towards a supply chain formula that relied less on inventoried parts and more on short lead-time suppliers. Systems like JIT - Just In Time, became very popular. They are attractive since there is far less money sitting on shelves in a warehouse stagnating. The problem occurs when the short lead-times cant be met. Worse yet, many US companies opted for single-source suppliers to maximize purchasing power. It looks great on paper, but as many have discovered, it can have problems in real world applications.

Business models that rely on foot traffic and one-time customers will rebound quickly. Business models that rely on consistent repeat-customers or long-term contracts will have to make some changes and will take longer to respond.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

Yes but the lockdowns are not the start of a collapsing system, the collapse started during the GFC when Taxpayers money had to be used to prop up the failing system. Getting American made goods to world markets , on a fair and competitive basis with China was a must do, which has glaringly never been done. In fact none of the fixes for the system have been enacted. Their has to be a reason why this has never been done. The economy if you look at trade, is "Chino American" Cheap goods heading to America. With the balance of trade falling in Chinas favor, so much so , that America has to create money to keep this staggering along, with falling demand finally slowing it up. This impacts China just as much as America, the war was China loosing its biggest export market because of a fall off in demand. This is crippling China and causing a return to authoritarian rule which will cause them to spiral into more and more repressive actions. The lockdown was another hit at Chinas economy in what looks like a war of attrition to make China a fair trader.

originally posted by: anonentity
Yes but the lockdowns are not the start of a collapsing system...

Who said they were? My posts are relating to how the recovery will not be strong and many recognized brands will go out of business dragging their employees into lower earnings which will further precipitate economic decline in the short to medium term.

We have not even seen the inflation yet. Getting ready for work so I cant really get into it but people are having trouble getting loans right now just like back in 2008.

Bounce back my but, media to busy in their feeding frenzy, the focus on the economy, is probably staged to begin in October, before the election. But it’s wasteland out here, I am getting what I can and saving it.

Yet I am sure some artificial non open market form of relief or stimulus will happen, and the big boys will get bailed out again, I can say this our economy is not an open market.

A very sad but accurate op-ed written by long time NYC resident and business owner James Altucher:

Now it’s completely dead. “But NYC always always bounces back.” No. Not this time. “But NYC is the center of the financial universe. Opportunities will flourish here again.” Not this time.

“NYC has experienced worse.” No, it hasn’t. Full Article

Since I've last posted in this thread I've watched 6 more of our largest customers file for bankruptcy protection which puts the company in serious financial jeopardy. I have made the difficult choice to change positions and will begin my new role after Labor Day.

In a state that relies heavily on the tourist business. At the beginning of covid we were on life support; I'm sad to report that the land of Enchantment has died. This time of year we used to be inundated with Texans and others spending that disposable income at the casinos, events and markets created to garner the tourist dollars.

My retail space relied on tourist passing thru our quaint little village. They're gone and so is my shop along with others now all boarded up. Now I can concentrate on my other profession with the corporate giant, Netflix, still expanding along with the other studios moving here. Many people that were employed by the tourist industry such as restaurants, hotels, bars, shops etc are looking for jobs and their aren't any. The "new normal" will be anything but "normal"!


And this is just the beginning.....

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

Between the shut-downs, the burned businesses, the lootings, we're going to see an entirely new class of unemployed.

The businesses still open are now facing difficulties with things like rent. If they couldn't pay their rents on the business sites because of the shut-downs, how are they going to pay the thousands in back rent?

Our youngest son is dating a young lady and we spent time with her mother who is a property manager. There's going to be a new wave of businesses that will have to close because they may have been operating on a narrow margin before, but this has wiped them out!

People are stupidly short-sighted. Aug's thread stands the test of time for sporting the Captain Obvious cape, and I'm flummoxed as to how nobody else is getting this.


We burned the god damned house down because there was a Black Widow in the room. And people are INSISTING the smoking pile of ashes left behind is actually better, what the actual flying # is wrong with them in the belfry? Talk about going Full Retard & being proud of it.

Their time will come. Karma loves smarmy bastards.

originally posted by: DBCowboy
The businesses still open are now facing difficulties with things like rent. If they couldn't pay their rents on the business sites because of the shut-downs, how are they going to pay the thousands in back rent?

The op-ed I posted talks about this very thing, it's a cascading waterfall of economic catastrophe that is going to pour down on all of us.

Morons: "Let's shut down a $21trillion economy for half a year, what could go wrong?"

originally posted by: Nyiah
Aug's thread stands the test of time for sporting the Captain Obvious cape, and I'm flummoxed as to how nobody else is getting this.

People do get, they just don't want to admit it.

This whole scenario can be explained simply via metaphor. This is like you're 2 hours into watching The Postman. You know the movie is a piece of s***, your friends watching it with you feel the same way but none of you are smart enough to get up and walk out of the theater since you cannot bear to admit you've wasted a good portion of your life with something so utterly stupid and pointless that you think it's just better to see the whole thing through at this point and save face.

originally posted by: AugustusMasonicus

originally posted by: Nyiah
Aug's thread stands the test of time for sporting the Captain Obvious cape, and I'm flummoxed as to how nobody else is getting this.

People do get, they just don't want to admit it.

This whole scenario can be explained simply via metaphor. This is like you're 2 hours into watching The Postman. You know the movie is a piece of s***, your friends watching it with you feel the same way but none of you are smart enough to get up and walk out of the theater since you cannot bear to admit you've wasted a good portion of your life with something so utterly stupid and pointless that you think it's just better to see the whole thing through at this point and save face.

I think that's the only thing that got me and my wife through "Side Effects" after she chose to watch it on date night. I wanted to see Dark Skies, but that didn't happen.

a reply to: LSU2018

She should throw you a hall pass for making you watch that steaming turd of a movie.

I don't think we have felt anything near what the economic impact will be. Xmas will tell the tale; if we make it that far.
Retail depends on Xmas for their profit season. Amazon will do well but I'm afraid all the mom and pops are SOL, this year, along with a lot of commercial landlords, maintenance , office suppliers, IT, bookeepers, etc.....this clusterf=== will have enormous consequences on the GDP, thus the overall economy.

Why did Obama and Hillary ever let us get into this mess?