Epidemiologist Behind Virus Model That Many States Rely On Drastically Revises Data!

originally posted by: carewemust
a reply to: shawmanfromny

Wonderful post! It's obvious that that model was intentionally designed to cause panic and Hysteria.

Mission accomplished.

What mission might that have been?

You will most likely get your chance to get the virus and find out first hand just how bad it will be .
If we keep the deaths under a 100 k the lock down will be a total success .
Still invincible are you ? Cant happen heck even as it is every one was making jokes a week agaio .
ok so a few million get it a 100 k die no big deal right ? thing is you will most likly get it and wile you may live it will be months until your totally recovered as it leaves the LUNGS damaged and god forbid even a cold after that will be alot more of a problem .
Every ones still talking numbers well here is one for you Its been OVER 20 years from the last time the US was FIRST in anything but we are now at 82 k confirmed cases EVEN MORE then china .Yea i know china lies and the US is still scattered testing . figer you can dobble china's number and the US numbers we are STILL number one just to think a month back we had less then a 1000 wile a month back S Korea had 7000 now we have 82 k and s Korea has 9 k ..
next week or two it will be 200,000 confirmed cases in the us with 5000 critical .
Thing is this is NO models this is real people being sick real people dieing real people losing jobs .
now maybe thous who are sick and thous who are still healthy would both like a better out come .
23000 deaths 19000 critical just how many need to die before we decide to face the FACT this is a world problem and not a Model .
I am ashamed to call my self American even a Dictator ship LIke S Korea doing better at managed the out brake .
3 weeks agaio every one was say Hox two weeks agaio every one laughed at the idea of a mask .
mean wile S korea and China have both PROVEN mask help and doing every thing possible to slow it down WORKS .still here in The US our testing is half what is should be .and mask can not be found as our Nurses make HOMEMADE mask .
china may have let it lose they may have lied about the totals numbers But they DID darn near stop it cold all the wile we laughed .
a month from now I promise you wont care about numbers any longer you will be just hoping its ends . problem is it is Just getting started .
lock down can slow it once lifted it will brake out and start all over but THIS time it will be all over the country at once going from 40 or 50k to to 100s of thousands going form 2 k 5 k deaths to 20 60 80 who knows no models will tell that number .
it all depends on how hard we try stopping it .

So dude says # will hit the fan if nothing is done....

some things get done...

so # is less likely to hit the fan now?

Wheres the issue?

I'm on track to be debt free in about 3 years, should I just stop paying my debt?

So , this person needs to be brought into court , and sued out of existence .

originally posted by: LordAhriman

originally posted by: carewemust
a reply to: shawmanfromny

Wonderful post! It's obvious that that model was intentionally designed to cause panic and Hysteria.

Mission accomplished.

What mission might that have been?

The economy.

The markets were already in free fall well before this outbreak.

Perfect excuse, now it's too late for a refund.

Bankers win again.

Hence, Mission Accomplished.

a reply to: AScrubWhoDied

You should read the sources before responding...they revised their model because they found a lot more people had it already than they thought or modeled for. That's why they aren't predicting mayhem now. That crazy 2% fatality rate isn't the same once you realize you've had 2-5x more people who have had it. All of a sudden the exponential aspect is the opposite of what everyone has been freaking over.

Election year shenanigans. Spying, collusion , impeachment, and now viruses. These people need to be dealt with.

a reply to: AScrubWhoDied

Interestingly enough it seems the site made by a bunch of democrats were using inaccurate data for a lot of the inputs in their model. Even said so on their site if you dig for it.

a reply to: jadedANDcynical
You know that is not point. These deaths are tragic and no statistic will diminish that. This virus can be a killer but 1200 deaths to date is not an epidemic. To be sure more will succumb to this disease, but no where near the dire leftist predictions. so let's put this "epidemic" in perspective shall we:

Every year in the US we experience 54,000 deaths from vehicle accidents. That's over 1000 deaths a week. It's massive should we ban all cars from the road.

Every year over 60,000 people die of drug overdoses. I think we need a war on drugs to take away any opportunity for folks to kill themselves with drugs. Oh wait, we tried that, things got worse. And that is over 1000 deaths a week.

in 2017 862,320 babies were put to death in this country. That's 16,583 defenseless human babies per week. Now that is something we should lock things down for, don't you think? Where is the panic and outrage with this insane barbaric practice?

You and people like you need to get a grip on reality, you know what that is, it''s what is left over when you strip off all the B*ll S**#t. What is going on the country right now with the Chinese virus is no accident on a number of fronts. Not the least of this is shutting down this country ask yourself "Cui Bono". The answers may surprise and enlighten you.

a reply to: shawmanfromny

This thread is about an epidemiologist who drastically revised his data.

The initial model ran with the assumptions that no Non Pharmaceutical Interventions (shelter in place, movement restrictions, etc.) were in placem, from the original paper I linked above:

In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality.

See where it says, "unmitigated epidemic?"

He later revised the model accounting for isolation and other movement restrictions. From the New Scientist article your article references, also linked above:

He said that expected increases in National Health Service capacity and ongoing restrictions to people’s movements make him “reasonably confident” the health service can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in two or three weeks. UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower.

He didn't, "drastically revise his data," Gupta and her team used the same model and ran their own set of assumptions, which he does not agree with:

His comments come as a team at the University of Oxford released provisional findings of a different model that they say shows that up to half the UK population could already have been infected.The model is based on different assumptions to those of Ferguson and others involved in advising the UK government.

Most importantly, it assumes that most people who contract the virus don’t show symptoms and that very few need to go to hospital. “I don’t think that’s consistent with the observed data,” Ferguson told the committee.

emphases mine



a reply to: bladerunner44

Tell me a number of deaths at which point it becomes something that needs to be given the attention that this is being given that you don't seem to think it needs.



At any moment I am expecting to see someone post that they think that hospitals across the world are being filled with crisis actors.

Remember when all those people said Trump could never be president? Well, don't be one of those people who says the pandemic could never hit huge numbers.

Of course the public is now drawn to smaller numbers because TPTB told him to revise. I am sure there will be more in the coming days but just look at the US. IT is exploding...and don't give me that containment bs from China.

It is not doom and gloom it is reality. This is a nasty virus that is killing 1 in 100 in the US and 1 in 10 in Italy.

This is not comparable to the flu....

a reply to: Nyiah

How does that rate when London ICU are at capacity now.

originally posted by: Gothmog
So , this person needs to be brought into court , and sued out of existence .

The courts systems are shutting accross the globe, you might want to hurry get that lawsuit in while you can.

originally posted by: matafuchs
Remember when all those people said Trump could never be president? Well, don't be one of those people who says the pandemic could never hit huge numbers.

Of course the public is now drawn to smaller numbers because TPTB told him to revise. I am sure there will be more in the coming days but just look at the US. IT is exploding...and don't give me that containment bs from China.

It is not doom and gloom it is reality. This is a nasty virus that is killing 1 in 100 in the US and 1 in 10 in Italy.

This is not comparable to the flu....

For some reason people cling to t h e numbers out of South Korea, they shutdown and isolated very early on and sprayed and disinfected everything, they still are doing so and have managed to flatten the curve, in the U.S they're doing very little, well other than complaining about the economy.

originally posted by: hopenotfeariswhatweneed

originally posted by: Gothmog
So , this person needs to be brought into court , and sued out of existence .

The courts systems are shutting accross the globe, you might want to hurry get that lawsuit in while you can.

I may...
Purposely inciting a worldwide panic , by skewing numbers , is most likely against the law.

originally posted by: Gothmog

originally posted by: hopenotfeariswhatweneed

originally posted by: Gothmog
So , this person needs to be brought into court , and sued out of existence .

The courts systems are shutting accross the globe, you might want to hurry get that lawsuit in while you can.

I may...
Purposely inciting a worldwide panic , by skewing numbers , is most likely against the law.

There you go you found yourself a mission, God speed...

a reply to: shawmanfromny

I hope he's right but well see.

If a guy is that wrong the first time then how can you have confidence in him?

a reply to: midnightstar

I am ashamed to call my self American even a Dictator ship LIke S Korea doing better at managed the out brake .

Since when was South Korea a dictatorship?

a reply to: Willtell

Here is what Ferguson actually did. (Read the twitter thread for more)

1/4 - I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.

2/4 - This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.

twitter.com...

a reply to: hopenotfeariswhatweneed

Go to any store and look at the ground....trash. Now add old masks and gloves and who knows wtf else and it is a cocktail. I am just waiting for the real CA numbers because they will trash NY.

Next is Florida. It is going to explode.

But in rural Montana if there is 1 case for each 15k why close everything down?

Numbers...last Friday we were looking at the greatest depression ever. Did you see the Dow today?

PS - Thanks for the BB reference...we play both kinds of music here...Country and Western....