There is no such thing as a safe universal flu vaccine

If you haven't watched the doco series recently added to Netflix called Pandemic I would highly recommend it. I watched the first few episodes last night and found it to be extremely relevant to our current situation. Last year I wrote a thread titled There is no such thing as safe AGI where I argued that our attempts to create safe general AI will backfire and how our approach to the problem is more likely to trigger the problem rather than prevent it. Here I want to do a similar thing.

One of the main topics they focus on in Pandemic is how we need a mandatory universal flu vaccine to completely eliminate influenza. However, I put forward the premise that there is no such thing as a safe universal flu vaccine (UFV for brevity). The primary reason is because when a species is pushed to the brink of extinction there is a very high chance the remaining population will contain characteristics allowing them to overcome whatever threatened their existence. As a result they repopulate and the adaptation is spread throughout the new population.

We know this is true because evolution simulations demonstrate it and we've seen it occur countless times in the real world. Viruses and bacteria are especially good at this due to their sheer numbers. Superbugs can and have been created due to them adapting and gaining resistance to the drugs we use to treat them. When a virus becomes too deadly the same thing can happen to the host species, they bounce back from the brink of extinction with an immunity to the virus. We've documented this occurring many times, a well known example is when Australia used the myxoma virus to cull the rabbit population in 1950.

The rabbit population was decimated in the beginning but the rabbits evolved resistance and their numbers grew again. This is why a UFV could be dangerous, especially if it's mandatory, there's a high chance of creating a new flu strain immune to any and all vaccines. It's very egocentric and dangerous for us to believe we can control the course of nature without any side effects. Having at least a fraction of our population unvaccinated for the flu is probably a good thing because diversity is a strength in terms of immunity and adaptation, it's good to have people with a naturally strong immune system in our population.

We also need to consider what happens if our species becomes totally dependent on flu vaccinations to the point where our immune systems are unable to function properly without them. That's not a position I think our species wants to be in, but that's where we'll end up if we force mandatory vaccinations upon people for illnesses that shouldn't pose a risk to anyone who has a healthy immune system. Yes the flu gives me a runny nose and sometimes sore throat for a couple of days, but afterwards I have a natural immunity to any similar strain. We shouldn't avoid being sick at any cost even if it's just a common cold or flu.

Having said that, the phrase "it's just a flu" looks kind of dumb after you watch Pandemic and see what influenza is capable of. Also I'm not saying vaccines are pointless, they are certainly helpful for people with compromised immune systems and old people, and obviously it's important to vaccinate kids against truly deadly illnesses. I just think if we take it too far we'll get more problems than we solve. We now know Covid-19 most likely originated in bats, and another topic they cover in Pandemic is how we're testing animals like ducks and bats because they spread influenza and coronaviruses.

They show researchers catching bats and handling them with their bare hands, even opening their mouth with their fingers in order to inspect their sharp teeth. As I was watching this scene all I could think was how their actions probably pose more risk of a bat-to-human transmission than anything else humans do. What they did to the ducks annoyed me as well, they shot a net over a group of them in the water then picked them out of the net one by one, many using their bare hands while not wearing masks. I know they think they're doing good but they seriously need to take more precautions so it doesn't backfire.

Pandemic makes it clear that new influenza strains can be deadly, that's exactly why I have trouble grasping our fear of Covid-19. After watching several videos of people who have the virus I cannot help but notice their symptoms seem on par or even less severe than a common flu. Also, barely any kids seem to be getting it and their symptoms are minimal but the flu kills up to 185 kids each year in the US. Norovirus, a common stomach bug, kills up to 800 kids each year and there's no vaccine. I understand we need to protect old people because that's who Covid-19 impacts most of all but does that really require a global quarantine?

My point is, we live with many deadly viruses and you cannot expect young people to fear something which seems fairly tame. The government should ask older people to isolate but we cannot expect the world to stop functioning every time a new virus pops up. I still maintain the position that Covid-19 is "definitely a conspiracy", and if governments want young people to risk their careers and their future, if they want young people to take the threat seriously they need to admit Covid-19 leaked from a lab or whatever the truth is. I don't know what the truth is but I don't think we're getting it.

a reply to: ChaoticOrder

I get it.

I get all my shots "except" the flu shot. When I get the flu, I am exhausted for a day to two, sleep 20 hours and all better.

Last flu shot I had was 94 or 95 when I was in the military. They always made me sick so I have never gotten one again.

a reply to: ChaoticOrder


I didn't read your OP and apologize for that. You have implied in your title that FLU and Corona are somehow equivalent. And while your statement about a universal flu vaccine is correct, the context in which this is written is very misleading.

CoronaVirus is not a FLU Virus. It is a RhinoVirus as is the common cold. There are two main variants of RhinoVirus: A- the multiple 'common' cold types of which there are about 60 in total and B- MERS - SARS and now SARS-COV-2 (I believe that is the designation.

There has never been an effect vaccine for a RhinoVirus.

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov...

www.scientificamerican.com...

That doesn't mean that progress isn't happening:

www.statnews.com...

... but to expect a vaccine at this point is wishful/magical thinking.

There is however a hopeful treatment modality that was funded by NIH that may pan out in time. It has been used, experimentally, on a few COVID-19 patients.

www.npr.org...

It was developed to help with Ebola. It's important to be clear about the difference between a vaccine and a treatment.

a reply to: FyreByrd

You have implied in your title that FLU and Corona are somehow equivalent.

I don't see how the title implies that, they obviously aren't the same. My point about studying bats is very relevant to this subject though, the Wuhan Institute of Virology collected hundreds of coronavirus samples from bats and if they did it anything like the researchers in Pandemic then I have to ask how often they get bit or scratched. Scientists at the Wuhan institute even attempted to create man-made SARS-CoV viruses which were capable of infecting humans and they succeeded. Several other scientists around the world criticized them for creating something like that, and again I have to wonder if such research really benefits us more than it puts us at risk.

As I stated I did not read your entire post.

The simple fact is that the context we live in today is centered on this pandemic. Why bring up FLU virus at all. Many people will see that as having some bearing on the current situation and it simply does not and conflates two very different viruses in the minds of people.

Right now clarity is needed, understanding is needed.


I'm sure your post is extremely interesting and in other times I would, perhaps, praise it.

a reply to: ChaoticOrder

Except we have basically eradicated several illnesses through vaccination.

With all the varieties of Flu it seems unlikely we can get a vaccine that effectively hits them all safely.

My limited understanding is that the flu vaccine is only for the most prevalent versions of the flu, not the more exotic ones.

originally posted by: OccamsRazor04
a reply to: ChaoticOrder

Except we have basically eradicated several illnesses through vaccination.

Admittedly I haven't looked very deeply into the illnesses we have managed to eradicate or how we managed it. The thing is I don't think we've managed to completely eradicate much, they manage to linger around in some way even if we develop a highly effective treatment. Obviously it's not impossible to outsmart nature, but we need to acknowledge the risks involved or our efforts will backfire on us.

a reply to: FyreByrd

While you are correct as to the variance between influenza and rhino viruses, they are both still viral in origin. Considering that, by your own admission, you did not read the OP and are, at least in regard to the general populace, over-stressing a title is, to say the least, IMO excessively pedantic.

The fact that both are viral contagions, that viruses are extremely adaptable, and they exist in MANY other species besides humans (extending their adaptability by at least magnitudes) making the concept of any type of "Universal Viral Vaccine" (let alone virus-family) statistically an impossibility.

But perhaps if you'd at least skimmed the OP, you may have gleaned the concept being expressed, instead of inflating what could have been a simple one line correction.

a reply to: OccamsRazor04

...insert buzzer sound...

"Eradicated"?! That does not mean, in a clinical/scientific sense, what you think it does. It only means that there are no statistically significant cases being recorded. It does not mean that they no longer exist anywhere on the planet, or have not evolved/mutated into something different. If they were truly "eradicated", in the common sense of the word, we would no longer still need to be vaccinating for them.

There are varieties of viruses in virtually every living organism on the planet (both plants and animals). There are billions floating and falling in our atmosphere and oceans. All the while they are mutating, evolving, and combining to new forms on many orders of magnitude.

If I remember correctly the corona virus (just one small family of related viruses) mutates a new strain approximately every 15 days. The present "pandemic" consists primarily of two (2) similar and related strains (one thought to be more hazardous).

Coming up with a vaccine for a particular strain can provide some degree of cross immunity for another related one (that's why annual flu vaccines are only marginally helpful), but the ideal of coming up with a safe and effective "Universal vaccine" is virtually impossible... to the point of being laughable (no offense intended).

originally posted by: ChaoticOrder
I still maintain the position that Covid-19 is "definitely a conspiracy".

Covid19 live

US deaths in the last 24 hours associated with COVID19 = 6090.

Yes, let everyone run free in this conspiracy of death. The death's will surely lower itself that way.