Italy 27,930 known infected and 2,158 Dead. A 7.7% Death rate.

originally posted by: JAGStorm
a reply to: ElectricUniverse

S. Korea and Italy has given us a look of our future, which path will we take.

What ?
Who is "us" ?
What will be our future , and which path will we take ?
Why not China ?
Too vague.

That is just the corona, I wonder how many others not related due to health care shortages due to corona. Ya it’s pretty grim over there. Keeping people on lockdown to, just to try to prevent any emergency cases like car accidents, etc. bad news.

What I'm seeing is the lower number of ICU beds per capita = higher mortality rate. South Korea has 12.3 beds per 1000 people, and their mortality rate from this is around 1%. Italy has 3.2 beds per 1000, and we in the US have 2.8. We could see a higher rate than Italy.

Avg age of dead is 80...the most vulnerable..a reply to: carewemust

originally posted by: Xtrozero

I think influenza is typically 1 to 2.1, so what is COVID-19?
...

...
For starters, it’s more contagious. The average person, even with mild symptoms, is likely to spread the disease to more than two people. By contrast, the seasonal flu’s rate is roughly half.
...

www.zmescience.com...

So if with the flu the number of infections can be from 9 million - 45 million with COVID-19 the infections could be 18 million - 90 million just in the U.S. Now if the U.S. death rate gets to just 3.5% (which is the % as WHO states) that would mean 630,000 dead. If 45 million get infected at a 3.5% death rate it would be 1,575,000 dead from COVID-19, and that's only if we get the low ball of death rate.

a reply to: LordAhriman

Again, we can't rely on any of the documented numbers coming from every country to make a mathematical theory as not all testing criteria is exactly the same in every country that has it.

Tests need to be made available en mass to really get your hands around being able to determine the impact.

I deal in supply chain, which in this case you need to be able to plan for your demand to be able to assess the requirements and impact going forward. Right now there is no effective way to forecast things going forward because we don't have the datapoints. All forecasts in essence are some sort of guess based upon data, but in this case the data is so bad there is no way to forecast this at all.

originally posted by: mzinga
I don't quite understand why we still have the testing restrictions in place.

It is all about logistics as in we do not have the capability to do mass testing, so they are only testing those who need care. I don't think the WH can actually tell states how they can test or not....Gates Foundation is getting close to a home tester and they are trying to set up drive through tester stations etc.

I don't think any of us really understand what it means to "test" and how long does it take.

The numbers and the response to this virus simply make no sense.

This is mass hysteria.

a reply to: Xtrozero

Yesterday I spoke with a friend from Alberta, Canada. She, her husband, and her 2 small kids are sick at home. They tried to go to the hospital and were yelled by authorities to go back home. Her two kids have high fever, and she can't get them tested because there is a lack of doctors. She told me all of this.

I also spoke with a family member in Spain, and over there it is really bad. As more time goes by we will see an increase in the numbers in the U.S., more so when there are many people falsely thinking, "the flu is worse so I will go everywhere I want to."

BTW, i am not calling for martial law, but people should be more responsible. Even if you are not one of the people with the higher risk of dying from COVID-19, you have someone in your family, or group of friends, whom are part of the people at higher risk of dying from this.

originally posted by: ElectricUniverse


So if with the flu the number of infections can be form 9 million - 45 million with COVID-19 the infections could be 18 million - 90 million just in the U.S.

So they are saying 1 to 4.2? Or double...

Right now, many places seeing Covid-19 transmission are following an exponential growth trajectory. That is, the rate of the spread of the infection is proportional to the number of people infected. Each infected person is expected to infect a certain number of people — around 2.5 right now..

Found this

originally posted by: ElectricUniverse
If 45,000,000 get infected (there are over 60 million people in Italy) and the death rate at 7.7% continues, it would mean Italy could have 3,465,000 dead.

Do you understand now how serious this is?

I keep getting scolded by ATS members for shplaining how this bug ain't what your government is letting it on to be.

The damned Chinese welded people into their apartments to curtail the spread.

You say 7.7%. The government says 1%. The flu's actually about .1%.

The thing about this bug that's so bad is its infectivity. It's super infectious and our political masters took forever to realize that ... and poo-pooed people who had better insight as to what was happening at the epicenters of the pandemic.

originally posted by: Xtrozero

originally posted by: ElectricUniverse


So if with the flu the number of infections can be form 9 million - 45 million with COVID-19 the infections could be 18 million - 90 million just in the U.S.

So they are saying 1 to 4.2? Or double...

If for influenza it is 1 - 2.1, for COVID-19 it is 2 - 4.2

You know, the sticking point for me that is paraded around, yet feels manipulated is the known infected rate.

Think about how many unknown already had it and got over it. I may have in January. I would NOT be counted in the totals.

It'd skew TF out of that death rate if real totals of the unaware infected were known, and I suspect it would not support it being so deadly.

originally posted by: ElectricUniverse

Yesterday I spoke with a friend from Alberta, Canada. She, her husband, and her 2 small kids are sick at home. They tried to go to the hospital and were yelled by authorities to go back home. Her two kids have high fever, and she can't get them tested because there is a lack of doctors. She told me all of this.

One of my workers who recently came back from Thailand and England on the same trip has had a cough for like 3+ weeks, and her kid now has a cough. She is home now, but she asked to be tested and she was told unless she is sick enough to go to the hospitable they will not test.

This is one reason why I feel bed and death count is about the only true numbers we have to work with.

originally posted by: Nyiah
It'd skew TF out of that death rate if real totals of the unaware infected were known, and I suspect it would not support it being so deadly.

It might ... but then, deaths that are being reported under other causes would have to be attributed to the COVID 19 death rate. How would people behave if those 'low numbers' we have right now were doubled or tripled?

originally posted by: Xtrozero

originally posted by: ElectricUniverse

Yesterday I spoke with a friend from Alberta, Canada. She, her husband, and her 2 small kids are sick at home. They tried to go to the hospital and were yelled by authorities to go back home. Her two kids have high fever, and she can't get them tested because there is a lack of doctors. She told me all of this.

and her kid now has a cough.

And ... now her kid has a cough.

A couple of days ago the government was happily advising that kids are damn near immune to the bug.

Now what are we seeing? Mass school closures and people telling us that their kids are sick.

a reply to: Xtrozero

We still have no clue to how many people have it to get a good percentage. So the US is 1.6% and Italy is 7.7%. This just tells me there are 10,000s that have it and are not counted.

Why would that tell you that ?
Any pandemic is always worse in certain regions than others .
The US had a very high rate of flu in 2018 , and the rest of the world was much lower.
Now , with that being said , folks need to figure out the cause of the differing in numbers.

originally posted by: Deplorable

originally posted by: Xtrozero

originally posted by: ElectricUniverse

Yesterday I spoke with a friend from Alberta, Canada. She, her husband, and her 2 small kids are sick at home. They tried to go to the hospital and were yelled by authorities to go back home. Her two kids have high fever, and she can't get them tested because there is a lack of doctors. She told me all of this.

and her kid now has a cough.

And ... now her kid has a cough.

A couple of days ago the government was happily advising that kids are damn near immune to the bug.

Now what are we seeing? Mass school closures and people telling us that their kids are sick.

A couple of days ago the government was happily advising that kids are damn near immune to the bug

"Damn near immune" is not the same as full immunity .

Denying ignorance
Why ?
I am getting "damn" good at this.

originally posted by: Gothmog

Why would that tell you that ?
Any pandemic is always worse in certain regions than others .
The US had a very high rate of flu in 2018 , and the rest of the world was much lower.
Now , with that being said , folks need to figure out the cause of the differing in numbers.

Those are death rates and that should be similar right? Also care homes are getting hit and once again why if not for the reason many more have it then known since only those in places like care homes are getting tested. If you think about it a care home is rather isolated and so one would think they be somewhat safe compared to the general public.

I think a lot of people have it...

a reply to: Xtrozero

BTW, i just heard a doctor on Fox News state that Influenza has roughly a 0.1 infection rate, and that COVID-19 has a 2-3 infection rate. COVID-19 is 10 times more infectious than influenza. So my numbers were wrong.