Mortality rates for Covid 19 skyrocket !

Ok. I am a Govt employee and I will help educate people here in this area. This disease is very contagious. All viruses have a reproduction rate abbreviated as such R0. This stands for R naught. The CDC, WHO, NIH all agree so far, this virus has a R0 rating of 2.5. This means ( currently) that if you are a carrier of the virus, you will pass it along to 2.5 other people. This number can increase/decrease based on many factors. So, let’s be conservative and take an R0 rating of 2. That means an infected person will spread the virus to 2 other people. Then those two people will give it to two others. So, 2 becomes4, then 4 becomes 8, then 8 becomes 16... and so on. At this current rate with people still congregating in masses throughout the country, 59- 200 million Americans will b infected in the next 21 days with a mortality rate of roughly 3%. Those r the Real numbers! That’s why the Govt hasn’t been testing everyone! We simply don’t have the means or the capacity to do so! We expect 65-80% of the US population to b infected. Good luck,please stay indoors, and take care of your loved ones.

a reply to: Willtell

I say the mortality rate is BS. How are they going to get an accurate number when they don't have a clue how many people are infected.

As far as the raw numbers go, that's true for the most part. But part of proper statistical analysis takes the unknown numbers into account by employing things like the ratio between positive tests and negative tests. And it also provides an uncertainty factor.

originally posted by: Willtell
I say the mortality rate is BS. How are they going to get an accurate number when they don't have a clue how many people are infected.

A lot of these so-called experts are very stupid and they think we're stupid.

That idea might mean the mortality rate is lower than the numbers indicate.

If someone dies of the disease, it is more than likely than not that the authorities would know that they died of the disease. But people who get mild cases of the disease and recover may not have ever been tested to officially be counted among the infected.

So the raw death numbers may be relatively accurate, while the total number of those infected might be too low.

Now, I'm no expert in this, so take what I say with a grain of salt (i.e., I could be full of crap). I'm just trying to apply reasoning to the issue.

I keep reading that the actual number of those infected are at least 10 x the numbers reported that would bring the death rate to 4 times the flu or 220,000 people in the USA. That is math. And Chicago could gun down that many in a few years.

This is not adding up to the hysteria at hand.