The CFR for Covid19 is unknown at this point .

a reply to: Fallingdown

I understood and agreed with you. Then I had to agree with the other poster that technically you are wrong. The CFR IS known. The actual fatality rate is not. The CFR is simply a meaningless number at this point. I got you, and the spirit of your post is spot on.

a reply to: Fallingdown
So some officials have finally said what many of us rational, not easily programmed into fear, individuals have been trying to tell the screaming chicken littles about this disease for months now. That's good. Would the chickens littles please stop spamming the board??
And will the global engagement center please stop influencing targeted populations with their partnerships in Media, entertainment, academia, and even medical professionals??

Dollars to donuts the sports event cancellations were ordered by the propoganda ministry, as well as the 24/7 unnecessary hysteria of the news.

Technically, Trump can be shown to have colluded with the corona virus, same with Pence. There will be an upcoming impeachment inquiry into this because he was at a meeting somewhere where someone there had the virus. He did not self quarantine, the White house doctors, the best probably in the nation, are also in collusion with the corona virus.

a reply to: worldstarcountry

Don’t try to reassure people around here unless you want to be unpopular . Lol

Tomorrow I’m gonna throw out a doom thread tomorrow and see how well it does in comparison to my last three rational ones. 🤫

a reply to: worldstarcountry

Damage is done.

originally posted by: OccamsRazor04

originally posted by: TritonTaranis

And the UKs new suicidal idea is to let coronavirus run through the populations for herd immunity LMAO, APOCALYPTIC scenes are coming soon

It's probably the best solution. It's what the US should do too. Have anyone at risk, 70+, self isolate, and go on with our lives. Personally if I had the choice between Covid-19 or the Flu I would much prefer to get Covid-19.

You would let the virus take hold of 80% of 320m US or 68m UK

With 20% - 15% needing hospitalization, critical care or ICU?

wow be like a nuke hit

a reply to: TritonTaranis

Why would that many need care? Can you source 20% of healthy adults aged 20-40 require ICU care? Over 80% have mild symptoms. Almost everyone who has a serious illness is already really sick or elderly. I would focus on that group and work on preventing their illness.

What do you think happens to the economy and everyone's jobs when a country shuts down for 2-3 weeks?

originally posted by: Fallingdown
a reply to: Alien Abduct

I dont think their aim was to study every person with the virus.That would be too difficult.

Of course they can’t test everybody on earth .

But the larger the sample group the more accurate the data.

Right and a sample size of 44,000 is a massive sample considering there is only 150k cases.

a reply to: Alien Abduct

Are there 150k cases, or are there 300k and only 150k we identified because the others were so mild.

originally posted by: Fallingdown
The Case Fatality Rate is the ratio between confirmed cases and confirmed deaths.

It’s that easy

Why are we even hearing numbers from the media without even a quick clarification ?

“ if it bleeds it leads “ “ Orange man bad “

But I digress ......

The primary reason why the CFR may overestimate the probability of death is that the number of confirmed diagnosed cases is likely an undercount of the true number of infections. This problem is known as ascertainment bias, which is to say that the medical system is much more likely to confront and diagnose severe cases and deaths than mild ones. Again suppose there were two deaths out of 100 resolved cases (people recovered or died)—but that an additional 50 mild cases have gone undetected. That means that while the CFR is 2 percent, the percent of all cases who have died is 2/150 = 1.3 percent.

This is why even as some reports from China say the death rate is 3.4 percent for known cases, medical experts such as Tom Frieden, former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, say that number is “certainly an overestimate” and expect a global rate below 1 percent.

On the other hand as the article states. The estimates can go in the other direction as they did in 2003 with MERS. Originally thought to be at a 4% CFR. Was at the end of the epidemic 10% CFR.


Because of the lack of testing available in most countries early on. An aggressive testing regiment should drop the CFR.


South Korea is a good example of a success at this point .

They came out of the blocks running and are testing 10,000 people a day .

Which just might explain why they had a .06% CFR .

Rand

Honestly... how are people just now waking to this? This is obvious.

I bet millions upon millions are infected. Maybe more! These small numbers based on “known cases” that then turn in a high mortality rate are just a ruse to cause panic.

I’m legitimately shocked people can’t say that. It’s absurdly obvious and you absolutely do not have to be an infectious disease expert to get that.

And as an aside, there’s a lot of “medical professionals” who deserve to lose their licenses over the hysteria they’re causing over this. Seriously. It’s sick how they scare the dickens out of society over something that equates to ~2.5% of the annual deal toll from the COMMON FLU each year globally on the absolute low end of the flu mortality spectrum.

Don’t give me the “it’s different this time” BS. It’s not.

Oh and all the people who have “years of experience” with viruses obviously suck at math. It’s their moment in the spotlight - 60 seconds of fame - and their eating it up. They deserve to be incarcerated for the lies they spread and the damage they are doing to the livelihood of countless millions.

originally posted by: OccamsRazor04
a reply to: Alien Abduct

Are there 150k cases, or are there 300k and only 150k we identified because the others were so mild.

Right, confirmed cases. But actual cases are probably times 10-20. So actual cases are likely between 1.5 million and 3 million.

a reply to: TritonTaranis

And the UKs new suicidal idea is to let coronavirus run through the populations for herd immunity LMAO,

Do you have a link for this?

a reply to: Alien Abduct

I’m gonna try this one more time .

there is only 150k cases.

That they know of.

I’d be willing to bet at least a third of the cases are going unreported . ( that number is just my opinion )

Currently rounding be available numbers . There’s around 150,000 reported cases with around 5800 fatalities . That puts the CFR at around 3.8%

If a third ( I think that’s a low estimate ) of the cases have in fact gone unreported. That would put the known cases at 200,000 while the fatalities remains the same at 5800 . Which gives us a CFR of 2.9%


Let’s cut to the chase here.

Tell me what percentage of Covid19 infections are going unreported ?

Where would you get the most reliable data ?

Out of a group of 40,000 people or a half million ?

a reply to: Fallingdown

Read my post three posts above this one........

a reply to: EnigmaChaser

how are people just now waking to this?

You’ve got me !

Hell look at how hard of a time I’m having trying to explain it .

In my country, people with mild symptoms are being advised to self-isolate, and look for medical help only if the symptoms get worse or are sustained beyond seven days. To my layman's mind, this looks like having a huge effect on retrospective statistics.
On the one hand, it must lead to mild infections being massively under-reported, leading to an underestimate of the spread of infection.
On the other hand, the severe cases being more accurately reported, they will look like a much larger proportion of the infection rate than they really are.
It strikes me that the true figures can never be knowable.

a reply to: DISRAELI

Statistical analysis accounts for such discrepancies but, in general, the greater the numbers over larger geographical areas, the more accurate they become.

originally posted by: Fallingdown
a reply to: EnigmaChaser

how are people just now waking to this?

You’ve got me !

Hell look at how hard of a time I’m having trying to explain it .

Well I’m here for support then, brother.

I usually don’t get so passionate but the lies/BS/etc that have been laid out and stated around this subject have me legit PO’ed.

Your post SHOULD make the world step back and go “dang - maybe I should chill out and go about life” but you still meet resistance. People SHOULD step back and say “wait a minute - there’s probably a S TON more people infected that just haven’t been tested” but they don’t.

Never mind that you don’t get a test unless your state/count officials say you should. It’s bungled at the state level and compounded by the idiocy of the masses. That only further skews the data.

Think about things for a minute folks - it’s not hard.

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: DISRAELI

Statistical analysis accounts for such discrepancies but, in general, the greater the numbers over larger geographical areas, the more accurate they become.

Phage - I’m a fan of your work in general. But dang man, just come out and say it - the total number of infected people is enormously larger than what’s stated and the mortality rate is accurate. That mean this is NOT a huge deal.

We can go into stat analysis and data all day but it’s bunk in general when you’re entirely missing a huge, huge chunk of data.

The way things are currently presented is just lying with statistics. And people buy it without thinking for a second - which is just sad.

originally posted by: Fallingdown
a reply to: Pilgrum

What do you think the percentage of undiagnosed cases is worldwide ?

Because that unknown variable would need to be added to your formula .

As you say, it's an unknown so the best we could do is guess which is hardly a reliable analysis. I agree that the actual number of unconfirmed carriers of the virus could be anything at all and likely to be in the same ballpark as the confirmed cases. We'll only be reasonably accurate in hindsight.

The global CFR based on the known figures (deaths & recoveries) is currently over 7% which I put down to lack of adequate control measures in the early days for many countries outside China (not mentioning any names here).