Let's Take A Look Back At China

a reply to: mzinga

You are hilariously and unfortunately correct sir. Just two posts above this.
I have been hopeful lately with the current measures being undertaken by the U.S. I still feel that there should be stricter quarantine measures in place and that even with what we have done it might be a bit too little too late. But as I have said before, I hope I am wrong and I remain hopeful of a more positive outcome than what I am seeing.

I hope you and yours are and remain safe, thanks for reading.

a reply to: tanstaafl

USA CFR is a little higher at 1.7% now, and Germany's has risen to 0.8%, but they certainly hasn't jumped to the huge numbers you were predic

Which "huge" numbers did I predict? Quote/link?

a reply to: tanstaafl

a reply to: tanstaafl

Here's a prediction for ya...



100,000 - 200,000 dead if we do things perfectly.... Meaning with regards to social distancing and quarantine measures.

Do you suppose the number one head honcho Dr in charge of this pandemic in the U.S. is also just fearmongering?

originally posted by: Alien Abduct
a reply to: tanstaafl
100,000 - 200,000 dead if we do things perfectly.... Meaning with regards to social distancing and quarantine measures.

Do you suppose the number one head honcho Dr in charge of this pandemic in the U.S. is also just fearmongering?

To an extent, yes... but you do realize, the numbers she referenced are only 2-3 times the average flu deaths every year, right?

Look, even if it ends up being as high as 500,000 though, that still doesn't justify shutting down the worlds economy. Sorry, but keep trying...

So..now U.S. Mainstream Media and authorities BELIEVE CHINA, because the U.S. Death Toll from Covid-19 has exceeded what China has reported.

www.usnews.com...

Sure..might as well believe China's figures now, because it fits the fear-mongering agenda. Right?

originally posted by: tanstaafl

originally posted by: Alien Abduct
a reply to: tanstaafl
100,000 - 200,000 dead if we do things perfectly.... Meaning with regards to social distancing and quarantine measures.

Do you suppose the number one head honcho Dr in charge of this pandemic in the U.S. is also just fearmongering?

To an extent, yes... but you do realize, the numbers she referenced are only 2-3 times the average flu deaths every year, right?

Look, even if it ends up being as high as 500,000 though, that still doesn't justify shutting down the worlds economy. Sorry, but keep trying...

Dude if it ends up being 500k (which it prob will) with all the social distancing and quarantine measures what do you think the numbers would be like if we did as you think we should which is nothing? The death toll would easily be into the several millions. Are you really this cognitively incompetent? I've had enough, this conversation is terminated.

originally posted by: carewemust
So..now U.S. Mainstream Media and authorities BELIEVE CHINA, because the U.S. Death Toll from Covid-19 has exceeded what China has reported.

www.usnews.com...

Sure..might as well believe China's figures now, because it fits the fear-mongering agenda. Right?

Hey I have a question for you. You think China is fudging their numbers. So are they fudging them to make it look like the death toll is lower than what it actually is or are they fudging them to make the death toll look higher than what it actually is?

How do you want to look at China without the real numbers? There is no way to verify what China is saying and doing and a lot of contrary reports circulating around

originally posted by: Alien Abduct
I think this mortality rate of 3.9% is accurate for covid-19. Some say it's like 1% or so but that most definitely is not the case for China and China is our oldest and largest sample so China's numbers are going to give us our most accurate mortality rate.

What do you guys think?

I think you're wrong... for the simple fact that we have no idea what their real numbers are, and we definitely know for sure they are and have been lying all along, and probably stopped testing a long long time ago.

So, the number of infected who recovered will never be counted, but to get a true CFR, you have to be able to at least roughly guesstimate those.

All of the figures I've seen says this thing is extremely infectious, so a good rough very low-ball estimate of total infected is 10 times the number of confirmed cases, although I'd suggest the real number is closer to 50 or 100 times.

Now, redo your calculations with those numbers in mind.

originally posted by: Alien Abduct
Dude if it ends up being 500k (which it prob will) with all the social distancing and quarantine measures what do you think the numbers would be like if we did as you think we should which is nothing?

Objection: ass-u-me-s facts not in evidence.

I have never, ever said or even remotely suggested we should 'do nothing'. I've said and maintain that we should absolutely not 'shut down the worlds economy' over it.

Social distancing is one thing. Forcing all businesses to completely shut down and everyone to remain in their homes for more than a month is, by definition, shutting down the worlds economy.

The death toll would easily be into the several millions. Are you really this cognitively incompetent? I've had enough, this conversation is terminated.

Bu-bye!

Oh - and your argument is nothing but doom-porn speculation.

Some might start to believe that you actually want to see millions of dead.

originally posted by: tanstaafl

originally posted by: Alien Abduct
I think this mortality rate of 3.9% is accurate for covid-19. Some say it's like 1% or so but that most definitely is not the case for China and China is our oldest and largest sample so China's numbers are going to give us our most accurate mortality rate.

What do you guys think?

I think you're wrong... for the simple fact that we have no idea what their real numbers are, and we definitely know for sure they are and have been lying all along, and probably stopped testing a long long time ago.

So, the number of infected who recovered will never be counted, but to get a true CFR, you have to be able to at least roughly guesstimate those.

All of the figures I've seen says this thing is extremely infectious, so a good rough very low-ball estimate of total infected is 10 times the number of confirmed cases, although I'd suggest the real number is closer to 50 or 100 times.

Now, redo your calculations with those numbers in mind.

I agree with you on this.

originally posted by: Alien Abduct
"All of the figures I've seen says this thing is extremely infectious, so a good rough very low-ball estimate of total infected is 10 times the number of confirmed cases, although I'd suggest the real number is closer to 50 or 100 times.

Now, redo your calculations with those numbers in mind."

I agree with you on this.

So, you agree the true death rate, aka CFR, is likely about the same, or even well below that of the seasonal flu.

Great! Welcome to the real world!

Can we now get back to business please?

originally posted by: tanstaafl

originally posted by: Alien Abduct
"All of the figures I've seen says this thing is extremely infectious, so a good rough very low-ball estimate of total infected is 10 times the number of confirmed cases, although I'd suggest the real number is closer to 50 or 100 times.

Now, redo your calculations with those numbers in mind."

I agree with you on this.

So, you agree the true death rate, aka CFR, is likely about the same, or even well below that of the seasonal flu.

Great! Welcome to the real world!

Can we now get back to business please?

The thing is it's not so much the death rate that is worrying. It's the number of people requiring hospitalization that is the main problem with this disease. If left unchecked or not checked enough, this disease would overwhelm the medical systems. If that happened the small mortality rate would grow big. This is why experts are emphasizing social distancing and quarantine measures in order to flatten the curve.

a reply to: Alien Abduct

I would rather wait for Italy or Spains numbers to finalize for an honest perspective.

The CCP has negative values of trust. They are honesty deficient. Its incalculable how much distrust their less than candid methods and reporting have created. Well over -9,000. They are the Goku of liars.

So sorry but the CCP is actively engaged in net centric warfare and disinformation so I dont trust anything they say.

originally posted by: HelloboysImbackguy
a reply to: Alien Abduct

I would rather wait for Italy or Spains numbers to finalize for an honest perspective.

The CCP has negative values of trust. They are honesty deficient. Its incalculable how much distrust their less than candid methods and reporting have created. Well over -9,000. They are the Goku of liars.

So sorry but the CCP is actively engaged in net centric warfare and disinformation. I trust nothing they say.

You think China is fudging their numbers. So are they fudging them to make it look like the death toll is lower than what it actually is or are they fudging them to make the death toll look higher than what it actually is?

a reply to: Alien Abduct

I say they never had accurate methods or the will to show the problem beyond a threshold their public image could feasibly direct the narrative of. That their ability to lie about it and control the narrative set the ceiling to their honest reporting .

I say even if they needed the worlds help they wouldnt ask. That even if they knew the world was going to need their help that they wouldnt tell us exactly how bad the storm coming really was.

That they would buy up the wests stock of vital medical supplies not even limited to Covid related treatment and mitigation behind the wave of information they were suppressing for months.

That they now cut off exports of said supplies and equipment and their relief effort in Europe and abroad is token at best. A photo op and free press.

That they admitted already to not counting POSITIVE test results in many cases while outright not testing anyone with symptoms below severe.

That many deaths they attributed to natural causes were Covid related and that they did so even though many of these deceased were in quarantine with confirmed infected people prior to death who testified to the cause of death being covid related. No investigations or follow ups in every such case. Thats absurd.

Thats the gist of what Im thinking right now. There is more and a long list of reasons to not trust the CCP when talking about the CCP virus.

Glory to Hong Kong BTW.

a reply to: HelloboysImbackguy

Excellent response thank you. I agree with you analysis.

Now with that being said, their mortality rate is sitting at 4%. What does this tell us? This tells us that chances are covid-19 is actually deadlier than even what we have seen in China.

originally posted by: Alien Abduct
The thing is it's not so much the death rate that is worrying. It's the number of people requiring hospitalization that is the main problem with this disease. If left unchecked or not checked enough, this disease would overwhelm the medical systems. If that happened the small mortality rate would grow big. This is why experts are emphasizing social distancing and quarantine measures in order to flatten the curve.

It would not overwhelm if they would simply use what works...

a reply to: tanstaafl

Can we please stop with this comparison to the flu already. It's tired and not relevant.

Straight from the CDC site... www.cdc.gov...

The numbers are an estimate and even if they were accurate you don't have everyone with the flu descending on a hospital at the same time. You guys are doing conspiracy theory math, and it doesn't add up. For the millionth time, this isn't about the CFR, AND the CFR can be impacted drastically if you aren't able to triage effectively.

And please tell NY what works .. And Italy.. And Iran.. And Spain.. And New Orleans since you are clearly smarter than all of their people performing the triage. You want a platform, I'm sure there are people on ATS that can facilitate some sort of broadcast so you can save lives.