The Mathematical Spread of COVID 19 Explained In Video Form...

originally posted by: Alien Abduct

This could technically happen and it is possible. Then again perhaps the governments of the world might implement quarantine measures in time and we can mitigate the impact. So far they are mostly on a reactive stance as opposed to a proactive one. So as I see it my prediction stands unless we get a proactive attitude soon.

3.5% is way too high...it's less than .6 (which is still high). The reason why your numbers are skewed is because we only know the number of deaths and not the total infected. It is playing out that 80% of those infected get very little symptoms, so how many get it, get over it and are not counted?

Compared to 2018-2019 flu season if 60 million get it then instead of 60k dying we could see 360k if .6%.

I think the key point is who are actually ending up in the hospital and for what reason beyond just having Cov19.

originally posted by: YouAreLiedTo
a reply to: Gothmog

Do you ever use sources for anything you say...

...or do you simply talk out your ass constantly?

Do you ever have sources other than YouTube videos ?

originally posted by: Gothmog

originally posted by: YouAreLiedTo
a reply to: Gothmog

Do you ever use sources for anything you say...

...or do you simply talk out your ass constantly?

Do you ever have sources other than YouTube videos ?

Shoo troll. Stay out of adult conversations you don't belong in...

originally posted by: Xtrozero

originally posted by: all2human


Give it a few weeks
it's going to go huge, big numbers
up to 2O day incubation , spread asymptomatically
little to no testing in the USA to date
Assuming one lives in a western nation
If the Virus doesn't bother you,the toilet paper will.
No difference between the willful spread of this disease and the lack of concern for it in my opinion
This is more than the Flu, it took down the second largest economy,and Japan is grinding to a halt
And this is not even close to being over
www.youtube.com...

If you read my first post I said "Of course I limit exposure as much as I can".... How is that any different than what you do? I'm just not concern over it all, I don't even want to get the typical flu either, but I'm not going to wall myself in my house for a month or two.

In the 2018 -2019 flu season 60 million caught it with 600k hospitalized. Out of that 600k about 60k died (10%), so for cases where it gets to the point of needing to be hospitalized the lethality is rather high.

With Cov19 it started out as a 1 to 5.5 transmission ratio in China, but it looks to be dropping off to a 1 to 2.6 ratio that is inline with the normal flu. The difference so far is it looks to be higher lethality for older people/other medical conditions, BUT much lower with healthy people to include almost nothing for younger people.

So what does your model look like over the next 2 months?

Will you provide sources for your numbers?

originally posted by: Alien Abduct

Will you provide sources for your numbers?

Which ones? I think you want this one... This is from WHO

WHO report

The reproductive number – the number of secondary infections generated from one infected individual – is
understood to be between 2 and 2.5 for COVID-19 virus, higher than for influenza. However, estimates for both
COVID-19 and influenza viruses are very context and time-specific, making direct comparisons more difficult.

Jeffrey Dahmer ate more people than CoronaVirus has killed in the United States?

twitter.com...

originally posted by: Xtrozero

originally posted by: Alien Abduct

Will you provide sources for your numbers?

Which ones? I think you want this one... This is from WHO

WHO report

The reproductive number – the number of secondary infections generated from one infected individual – is
understood to be between 2 and 2.5 for COVID-19 virus, higher than for influenza. However, estimates for both
COVID-19 and influenza viruses are very context and time-specific, making direct comparisons more difficult.

That link is a direct download link. I'm not interested in downloading potentially hazardous documents.

originally posted by: carewemust
Jeffrey Dahmer ate more people than CoronaVirus has killed in the United States?

twitter.com...

U.S. death toll is 22. Dahmer actually killed 17 so even if he ate all 17 which he didn't.....

originally posted by: Alien Abduct

That link is a direct download link. I'm not interested in downloading potentially hazardous documents.

OK, you asked, I posted what you can read while providing the link to WHO. Read or don't read, I don't care.

Breaking news. A new link has been found in the chain that spreads Coronavirus.

mobile.twitter.com...

a reply to: Xtrozero

I have a responsibility to others to be concerned.
We are faced with a time when we need to act collectively

originally posted by: YouAreLiedTo

originally posted by: highvein
a reply to: YouAreLiedTo

When you do you think it will reach the inflection point?

To give you a more precise answer you are going to have to put up with some high level math with me, but suffice to say that the earliest we are going to hit a 1.0 point at the inflection point considering we are already at 105,000 cases and a current factor of 1.15 per day...

...you're going to see at least 5,000,000 cases before it starts a negative...

And that's if we were taking it seriously *now*...

S&f for the post - OP.

So what do you think of thus...

We have billions of untested people globally. 300mm+ in the US alone. It’s entirely possible that your 5mm+ are already “infected” but perhaps it does nothing to them.. or they just say “meh, I don’t feel well - maybe I’ll stay home for a couple days”. Then they get over it and move on. No doctor. No CDC provided test. Not included in the data - Just an illness that came and went like any other.

That number could be 10mm right now. Maybe more. Maybe the entirety of Italy. If that 10mm figure is true, and I’d buy that - but base the mortality rate on the “confirmed” cases - this situation becomes very minuscule. Which makes sense as the hospital is generally only going to test/treat/document the most severe cases - when many millions could have shrugged it off like the example above - which skews the data in a potentially meaningful way.

Also, how does this factor in the end of the peak flu season?

Im just thinking through other variables that could materially alter the data/scale of impact of the video’s hypothesis. I appreciate the post!

originally posted by: all2human

I have a responsibility to others to be concerned.
We are faced with a time when we need to act collectively

So how much is hype and how much is reality? You are playing on the hype as the numbers are not that much different than the common flu. Different in ways, worst in ways, but also better in ways. The bottom line is IF you do not have underlining conditions dealing with your repository system you might get it and it is gone with hardly a notice.

To be honest, IF the numbers show a rise in healthy younger than 70 people dying then I'll worry.

originally posted by: Alien Abduct

That link is a direct download link. I'm not interested in downloading potentially hazardous documents.

Actually you can see where the doc comes from by just hovering your mouse over it and then you can go to the HTTPS: WHO site manually www.who.int...

originally posted by: Xtrozero

originally posted by: all2human

I have a responsibility to others to be concerned.
We are faced with a time when we need to act collectively

So how much is hype and how much is reality? You are playing on the hype as the numbers are not that much different than the common flu. Different in ways, worst in ways, but also better in ways. The bottom line is IF you do not have underlining conditions dealing with your repository system you might get it and it is gone with hardly a notice.

To be honest, IF the numbers show a rise in healthy younger than 70 people dying then I'll worry.

Exactly. You start telling me otherwise known healthy people under 60 go from that place to dead in under a month then I’ll freak out with everyone else.

What I find alarming is how some people preach scaling with most things or try and spot lying with statistics but those voices are pretty mum in the MSM right now. Panic sells. Scaling doesn’t.

a reply to: EnigmaChaser

I tell you what I find alarming is that if this were a pandemic killing millions the reactions to the media reporting would be no different than what we are currently seeing, some would mock, some would prepare, some wouldn't care, some would say its a hoax, some would play down the event, some would be scared etc, all while waiting for media to tell us what you to do next.

originally posted by: EnigmaChaser


What I find alarming is how some people preach scaling with most things or try and spot lying with statistics but those voices are pretty mum in the MSM right now. Panic sells. Scaling doesn’t.

Reminds me of the age old news story saying... IF IT BLEEDS IT LEADS

a reply to: EnigmaChaser

"Also, how does this factor in the end of the peak flu season?

Im just thinking through other variables that could materially alter the data/scale of impact of the video’s hypothesis. I appreciate the post!"

How would it factor in if this unusually high flu season in the San Fransisco area were partly because covid got here sooner than we realized?

www.google.com...

www.ucsf.edu...

SF has thr highest Chinese population in the USA...

originally posted by: YouAreLiedTo
How would it factor in if this unusually high flu season in the San Fransisco area were partly because covid got here sooner than we realized?

www.google.com...

www.ucsf.edu...

SF has thr highest Chinese population in the USA...

I feel the biggest threat to all this is young healthy people can get it and think it is just a simple cold or even allergies and end up being typhoid Mary and not even know it.