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originally posted by: JIMC5499
a reply to: Waterglass
They have changed the odds from 1 in 100 to 1 in 20. Might be some fireworks after all.
When this article was first written Tuesday morning (Jan. 28) the odds of a collision were 1 in 100. A crash has since become five times more likely, with 1 in 20 odds. If the two satellites were to collide, the debris could endanger spacecraft around the planet.
If the satellites miss as expected, it will be a near miss: LeoLabs, the satellite-tracking company that made the prediction, said they should pass about 40 feet apart (12 meters) at 6:39:35 p.m. local time. The odds of a collision went up in large part based on the information that one of the two satellites, the Gravity Gradient Stabilization Experiment (GGSE-4), had a 60 foot (18 m) boom trailing from it, according to LeoLabs. No one knows which way the boom is facing, which complicates the calculation.
originally posted by: JIMC5499
a reply to: Bigburgh
That's where I'm leaving for now. The good news is that I'll be on the Parkway East coming IN from Monroeville. I'm out by the Alcoa Tech Center now.
originally posted by: Arbitrageur
If they are predicted to miss by 15-30m, that's not a collision but that's a possibility, if not it will be a close call.
originally posted by: M4nWithNoN4me
If you have a cousin who could help us to understand the likelihood of this satellite collision, the factors that created the conditions for it to happen, the possible consequences of said collision, and any other intelligent and informed info, plz post it back here in a reply!
Have you seen this image before? It shows the 22,000 objects in orbit that can be tracked from the ground, looks pretty crowded up there so I am not surprised by these near misses.
We're surrounded by SPACE JUNK: Incredible image reveals the disused rockets and abandoned satellites that orbit Earth
Based on a data archive, each miniature sphere in this image represents an existing object orbiting in space. There are around 22,000 objects in orbit that are big enough for officials on the ground to track
In the early days of satellites, there was no provision to "de-orbit" them or crash them back into earth after their service life was over. I think many satellites now launched have such de-orbiting capabilities to either bring them down or put them into a graveyard orbit for dead satellites. But we still have a lot of junk from the past which is the case for at least one of the two satellites mentioned in the OP dating back to 1967.
There are maybe 370,000 objects in orbit, some too small to be tracked from the ground. The Chinese created a big mess when they tested an anti-satellite weapon on one of their satellites creating many fragments of debris which could damage other satellites if they hit them, and the international community complained about that orbit pollution.
originally posted by: Ironclad1964
Y'know, for some enterprising business person, this could prove to be a virtual gold mine in salvage...!!
"Including actual GOLD", as many satellites and other space junk are filled with the stuff..!!
That image represents Trillions of dollars worth of actual rubbish..!!