Corona Virus Updates

Agenda 21 has begun!

a reply to: TritonTaranis

No it's not, relax.

a reply to: SpartanStoic

Panic was a big killer during Spanish Flu too. Government here tried to avert it by "putting a good face" on things, and it made everything worse because people knew they were being lied to. Thing is that the stories we tell ourselves are often worse than reality. I hope for all our sakes this is the case here.

It wouldn't surprise me if they were being censored. So far, the "approved" business contacts for husband's company are still reporting back in as normal. They aren't in Wuhan though.

Saturday, January 25 is China New Years Day, one that won't soon be forgotten.

17 yrs after SARS, China will experience a higher scale of costs & burdens to execute nationwide containment strategy. But Beijing has no choice. The virus is already everywhere.

The first super-spreader, Zhou Zuofen would bring the disease to the international stage. He checked in to the Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital in Guangzhou on January 31, 2003. This was the same hospital where Liu Jianlun was treating the disease. The virus was soon spread to nearby hospitals while Liu would later spread the disease to Hong Kong.

Timeline of the SARS outbreak

Pneumonia epidemic caused by a novel coronavirus of which pneumonia affects approximately 450 million people globally and results in about four million deaths per year.
Sourced from 2019–20 outbreak of novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV

Pneumonia is no joke!! That said, if you have a healthy immune system you're likely not to get it, or just a flu minus the pneumonia(?) and if you do you'll likely survive. Then of course you have people with just dreaded pneumonia that didn't get it from Coronavirus.
Wash your hands often and before touching mouth & rubbing eyes.

a reply to: EndtheMadnessNow

I gotta watch it.

I have very minor asthma, exercise induced. I normally don't even know it's there ... until I get something into my chest. The last one took months to get out. I ended up needed at least two or three rounds of steroid treatment on top of anti-biotics to shake it loose.

And I'd coughed so much, so hard that I had chest pains for months after.

Academic paper (not yet peer-reviewed) just published.

Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions

Key Findings

We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (R0) to be significantly greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing.

We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8–5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, indicating a large number of infections in the community, and also reflecting the difficulty in detecting cases of this new disease.

If no change in control or transmission happens, then we expect further outbreaks to occur in other Chinese cities, and that infections will continue to be exported to international destinations at an increasing rate. In 14 days’ time (4 February 2020), our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 190 thousand (prediction interval, 132,751 to 273,649). We predict the cities with the largest outbreaks elsewhere in China to be Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Chengdu. We also predict that by 4 Feb 2020, the countries or special administrative regions at greatest risk of importing infections through air travel are Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea.

Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February.

a reply to: EndtheMadnessNow

So, each sick person may infect 3 to 4 others. Compare that to measles which has an RO of 12 to 18. That's what I've been talking about when I say it's not casually contagious. That number jives with close contact and surface contamination. It also explains why China can look so bad, but we're just now seeing cases outside the country. It's plenty infectious, but not a super-fast spreader.

Well it sure seems to fit. a reply to: Masisoar

originally posted by: IAMTAT
a reply to: ketsuko

We should be able to contain this until a vax is found...but it will likely result in quite a few deaths.
All flights and travelers from China should be denied entry to the US until this is under control.

A vax? This was created in a lab and patented. This is what’s happening. They create these viruses, release them and make a vaccine. You think Bill Gates is a Saint?

a reply to: ketsuko

Correct. Thanks, for putting that into perspective. Did not know measles was that infectious. China's population density doesn't help matters.

I was just looking at flightradar24.com and China still has hundreds of planes arriving/departing. Assume many flights are due to China New Year's Day.

ETA:

source

Well, there's that ...

Tucker Carlson did a spot on the Wu Flu. One of the two he had one was a woman who claimed there is a vaccine in the works for this that *may* be available in a few months.

Could be something. Could be nothing.

BEIJING (Reuters) - China has confirmed 1,287 cases of patients infected with the new coronavirus as of Jan. 24, while the death toll from the virus has risen to 41, the National Health Commission said on Saturday.

www.reuters.com...:+Trending+Content&utm_medium= trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

twitter.com...

a reply to: ketsuko

Could be but sounds too soon unless they were already working on it last year. I heard similar yesterday but said June time frame. AFAIK, there is no vaccine for SARS-CoV nor MERS-CoV.

a reply to: EndtheMadnessNow

Now in Europe, three cases detected. Sure there are more.

Cheers

When I saw Disney was going to close I knew # got real. Same thing with Hurricanes in Florida. Cat 4 2 days out they will close at 4 PM when it is forecast for 9.

Travel leaving China needs to stopped now till this is under control. I would think the same thing about any country that had an Outbreak. Ebola. SARS. I don't care. If there is an outbreak all travel from that country should stop.

a reply to: celltypespecific

Well Ive got N95 masks and hospital antiseptic,I knew when the Australian government said dont panic that it was super serious

a reply to: celltypespecific

Doctor DoomPorn quoted that from the academic paper I posted above which is a "prediction" and not yet peer-reviewed.

All N95 masks are sold out in the area
but eye protection is plentiful lol
obviously ppl are quietly preparing...
Don't forget your toilet paper

There are two probable cases of coronavirus in NSW and four other people possibly have the disease, health officials have announced. All six patients are undergoing hospital testing and the two probable cases have been fully isolated.

NSW Chief Health Officer Dr Kerry Chant said she expected test results for one of the two probable cases later this afternoon. Results for the other case would be available on Sunday morning (local time) at the earliest.

www.stuff.co.nz... /first-coronavirus-case-confirmed-in-australia