China's Progress on its Air Carrier Program

The Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has a very active program to build their own fleet carriers. The PLAN has two ski jump (STOBAR) carriers and a catapult using (CATOBAR) carrier being built. China has stated their intentions are to have ten fleet carriers, matching the current US navy, as well as a gator navy, which their Type 075 LHD. The progress is rapid, but not quite as rapid as some think. There's no way there will be a massive fleet in the next three years as was predicted by some, but their progress should be noted, watched. let's walk through what we know so far.

The Chinese bought multiple carriers from other countries for study: the HMAS Melbourne was bought from Australia[1] under the plan to have it scrapped, but the PLAN delayed the scrapping to examine and study the warship. The Aussies had done as much as possible to make sure the HMAS Melbourne could not be recommissioned though[2] and the scrapping went through. The Chinese also bought the Soviet Kiev[3] and Minsk[4] class carriers. These were examined, but were used as casinos and museum pieces. Most infamously though, the Chinese bought the Varyag from the Ukrainians.



The Varyag had been the second ship of the Kuznetsov class built and launched by the Soviet Union in 1990, but never completed, Ukraine inherited it. the Ukrainians could not afford to finish the ship, so it sat off the coast for 8 years until the ship was sold to China in 1998. The Chinese claimed the ship was going to be scrapped when they bought it. Few believed that at the time, but no other country offered to preemptively buy the hulk, so Ukraine sold the ship for $20M. The Chinese studied and rebuilt the ship over the course of 14 years. In 2012, the PLAN commissioned the ex Varyag as the Liaoning[5].



The Chinese did not stop with the Liaoning. They have been building a follow-on. The new carrier is of an improved design over the Liaoning, which has been characterized as extremely uncomfortable for the crew. The new carrier, popularly called the Shandong, recently sailed from the shipyards at Dalian, transited the Taiwan Straits, and docked at Hainan. There the ship has been getting a paint job, including getting its pennant numbers painted, but they remain covered. The crew has started practicing the commissioning ceremony, photos showing them 'manning the rails.' based on information off the sino internet, either the ceremony will take place on December 6, 2019 or a full dress rehearsal with the ceremony to follow shortly. The official name of the "Shandong" and its pennant number will be unveiled then.

Both the Liaoning and the "Shandong" carry about 26 fighters and 14 helicopters. The fighters are of the J-15 Flying Shark[6] design. These are derivatives of the Su-27 Flanker. The primarily derived the design from the J-11B, a Sinocized version of the Flanker, with some input from studying a prototype of the Su-33. There are multiple variants, including EW and two seater versions. However, the Chinese have been unhappy with the J-15: it has significant reliability problems.

As a result, the Chinese have been working on what has been called colloquially the J-XY. The rumors are the it will be derived from the J-31[7]. The J-31 was designed from the get go with carrier landings in mind, as noted by many for the extra heavy landing gear. Whether the J-31 is the basis for the J-XY or not, the XY is expected to be a 5th generation fighter. It is rumored XY will be unveiled sometime in the next year (rumors claim by end of 2019, but...we'll see). The XY is expected to be used on the third and all subsequent aircraft carriers.



The third carrier, currently not known as anything other than the CV-03, is being built outside Shanghai. Satellite photographs show the CV-03 having its modules being mated. This does NOT mean it will launch shortly. However, it is making significant progress. The expectation would be not for another two years before a launch, but that could be wrong. While the Liaoning and "Shandong" are in the 67k ton range at full load, the CV-03 is expected to be significantly larger. The newest carrier is also expected to be a CATOBAR carrier. This means the carrier will use catapults and arresting gear to launch and recover the aircraft. The catapults are likely to be of the EMALS[8] type similar to those being installed on the USS Ford. These are actually simpler than the older steam catapults the older American (and others) used.

In addition, the Dalian shipyard[9] where the Chinese rebuilt the Liaoning and outright built the "Shandong" is rebuilding the dock used for those carriers for larger ships. Whether this is for carriers or something else remains to be seen, but it seems probable the Chinese would like to keep at least shipyards capable of building a carrier going. Once the dock is refinished, we could see modules being delivered for construction of a 4th carrier.





These are not the only aircraft carrying warships being developed by China. China has a VERY active program to build a gator navy: ships intended for the transport of their own Marine Corps for amphibious assaults. China has three Type 075s[10] under construction right now: one launched and two in docks still. These are the equivalent of the America[11] and Wasp[12] class LHDs. Despite rumors there are no real signs of a VSTOL fighter being developed. Should China actually develop a VSTOL fighter like the F-35B, the new aircraft would allow the Type 075s to be used like the Americas and Wasps as light carriers. The VSTOL aircraft would also benefit the Liaoning and "Shandong." For now, the Type 075s will used strictly as helicopter carriers.

By 2024, China will have two light carriers, a full fleet carrier and three plus amphibious carriers. While this is far, far less than the ten fleet carriers and ten amphibious carriers than the US has, the US must spread its carriers around the world, while China can concentrate its forces in far east Asia. This means the Chinese will be able to put up as many carrier aircraft on day one of a war as the US will be able to in a carrier on carrier battle. NOTE: the USN will likely only have one carrier in the EastPac at a time and it will take significant amount of time for a second or more carrier to join the American carrier group steaming in the area.

Hit the word limit. Will continue in a reply.

1. en.wikipedia.org...(R21)#Decommissioning_and_fate
2. stripped the catapults and all associated equipment, stripped the electronics and other critical pieces and welded the rudders in place. And more I am sure.
3. en.wikipedia.org...
4. en.wikipedia.org...
5. en.wikipedia.org...
6. en.wikipedia.org...
7. en.wikipedia.org...
8. en.wikipedia.org...
9. en.wikipedia.org...
10. www.abovetopsecret.com...
11. en.wikipedia.org...
12. en.wikipedia.org...

a reply to: anzha

Well over here in the UK we have one of our TWO new carriers and apparently behind the scenes Johnson when he is re-elected is planning to make further cut's to our armed services AND to permanently loan of those two carriers to the US whom according to the report Love them despite the fact they are NOT nuclear powered - according to a now missing report on Microsoft's default page that is (and in a further edit there is a competing story that the UK royal navy is ordering a Third Queen Elizabeth carrier due to a resurgent Russian threat).

So?.

Personally other than the WOW factor and the presence they can project I believe we really should be creating submersible drone carriers for fighter/bomber drone's as human pilot's become more the limiting factor and warfare is starting to move ever more toward mechanization.

That said I do personally feel a lot more comfortable about human pilot's than I ever will about soulless AI's which will some day completely replace the human drone operators since currently the radio control method is a very weak link in there capability's.

Austrailia is commenting on noted increases of domestic interactions with Chineese Intel people masquerading in Austrailia....the Hidden Fleet is being outed.....how many buildings do you think had "mods" integrated that could be deconstructed quickly and reassembled into Fleet Carriers?

China isn't fooling anyone and they are ready-set-go as we speak.

A common refrain is the Chinese need years to become as effective US Navy in carrier operations. This is absolutely true. However, they are getting those years. The China commissioned the Liaoning seven years ago and have been using the warship as a training ship ever since. The Liaoning and Shandong are no Nimitz or Ford. However, they are massive leap in capability and with the addition of their first CATOBAR carrier, the PLAN is likely to have another equally large leap in capability.

The USN is the greatest Navy the world has ever seen. However, it is in trouble. Parts are becoming a mess and carriers are not able to put to sea. The Ford class is having teething problems in a huge way. They will be solved. Eventually. None of the US fleet carriers can embark the F-35C. The Zumwalt class is mess. The Freedom and Independence class LCS are as much lunch meat for the PLAN as can be imagined: the PLAN frigate that is the equivalent of the LCS packs 32 VLS cells. The LCS? none.

While the USN can still overwhelm the PLAN at sea, the US is losing its edge. Bad program management, bad procurement practices, and some slipshod work by defense contractors is becoming seriously problematic. This is all made worse by a lack of industrial policy in the IUS that stretches back 30 years through multiple administrations. It can be fixed. However, only by acknowledging the problem and forcing the change. Otherwise, we may see the US lose its preeminent place in the world. The US has been the sole hegemon with a light touch. Others in the past have been far, far worse. I shudder at the thought of a Chinese world hegemony...

a reply to: anzha

Its time for the USA to reinvigorate the American and Canadian Navel logistical complex and begin building ships at home. Big ships and a lot of them.

a reply to: one4all

That would create job's for your shipyards and the support industry necessary to maintain and feed these ship's.

Lots of them would be cool for any nation BUT is it really the way to go.

Anti ship missiles are getting better, harder to detect and harder to intercept as well as faster, smarter and longer range all the time.

Are big ship's really the best way to go or are more stealthy, faster, hard hitting and cheaper (so lots more of them) a better solution?.

a reply to: LABTECH767

Flocking Drone Swarm defenses render most missile Systems useless against big ships nowadays.....and big ships can be more easily armed with current level laser defenses and tactical systems ……. you need to get by Swarming Drone defense and the incredible reach accuracy and devestation of long range laser/masers.sasers…….a lot of our near future work will be in the Arctic so that's a good place to start in terms of Fleet building.

During wars all ships are re-purposed...so when we review combat inventories we have to be wide-scoped in our vision.Its not only important to have Hulls in the water its important to know how many others have in the water at any given time.

a reply to: anzha

Actually, Lincoln can embark the F-35C. It's currently the only one that can. She got the capability during her overhaul. The others are getting it either during RCOH or their long PIA periods.

Admittedly, the Chinese have been pumping huge capital into their military and technological infrastructures, courtesy of Western trade and greedy corporate suits, I suppose it is a consequence we must live with, endure and learn to combat them.

The American Empire would eventually see a near peer competitor and who other than the ones who manufacture our products and knows us best? Ughhh.

However, how does the expansion of these programs fair under a slowing Chinese economy? Even before the trade war, Chinas economy was slowing and now, the present, it is hitting all time lows and back to back slumps in annual and quarterly reports across the board, will they still continue to sustain this capital and production, despite these economic woes?

But do these ships have female restrooms? The Chinese are probably WAY behind on that!


snicker....

a reply to: Fools

Good point BUT think about this, back in the days of sail what do you think the poor cabin boy was used for?, oh not all captains were evil like that but the navy's of the world have always had there share of them.
In the British navy the saying used to be "Rum, Sodomy and the Lash" (I can just hear the Tory's with there madam's saying "Whip me I've been a bad boy"), the rum is because even to this day the sailors of the navy are supposed to receive a portion of rum every day (though I don't think they do anymore - you know being in charge under the influence).
militaryhistorynow.com...
www.theguardian.com...

People underestimate the Chinese smarts and abilities IMO.
Beijing's Sanyuan Bridge to Be Retrofitted within 43 Hours... Can you imagine how many months and days (if not longer ?) this would have taken in most supposedly first world countries ? youtu.be...


Now the question is how long before it falls down or collapses ? haha

a reply to: 727Sky

In the past the Chinese were a lot smarter than they are today, under Qin they murdered almost all the scholars of China except the astrologers and medicine men because he wanted to rewrite history and make it HIS empire when in fact other Asian nations that fell outside of his influence often have legends of previous empires that sometimes were involved in there own legend's.

By about 700 AD (there is no such thing as this Common Era crap that's just a bunch of atheist prat's pushing there agenda so I will use AD) the Chinese were already in possession of bellow's powered blast furnaces for creating high quality steel.

They invented gun powder, had the compass and used transverse bulkheads in there ship's based on the chambering of a rod of bamboo.

About a hundred years before Christopher Columbus the Chinese Grand Fleet had already discovered - or re-discovered the America's and there are Chinese sea anchors that have been found off of the California coast for example and they possibly also know of Australasia.

Firework's, while in the west the Byzantine marines had created vast ship to ship flame throwers in China they had opted for the first anti ship cruise missile a huge firework that could be lit with a timed fuse to explore over the enemy ship, used shaped like a dragon with four downward rockets to allow it to skim over the water these were a viable weapon but we really do not know how well they worked.

What we do know is that in the start of the twentieth century when an imperial Russian army tried to invade China the Chinese routed them using firework's and muskets.

There are claim's that the Chinese already had complex clockwork devices over a century before the Swiss did but given the Antikythera mechanism were they invented there or just remembered from ancient manuscripts.

One thing is certain given the opportunity the Chinese can be very inventive, the key here is if we all put racism and bias on hold the Chinese are human beings the same as us, they have all the same flaws and all the same faults as well.

a reply to: LABTECH767
I am aware and agree with everything you said and will add Pasta was also invented in China not Italy !

I would not be surprised if China already had the blue prints for out latest greatest Aircraft carriers and aircraft.. Really no kidding..!

CV17 Shandong was commissioned today. President Xi attended. The Shandong is the first domestically produced Chinese CV. Another CV is being built in Shanghai, a much larger one, and it appears a fourth will be started in Dalian.

www.defencetalk.com...

www.reuters.com...

a reply to: 727Sky

People underestimate the Chinese smarts and abilities IMO.

I say don't over estimate Chinese smarts.

Considering just how much technology they steal from other countries.

The new one just sailed out yesterday ahead of schedule. It was scheduled to enter into service late next year.

a reply to: LokiBlue

It actually was commissioned yesterday. It already sailed past Taiwan with US and Japanese ships shadowing. And a Soar Dragon UAV shadowing them.

and more info:

theaviationist.com...

a reply to: LokiBlue

Sailing out isn't the same. She has a ways to go before entering service. She has to undergo multiple rounds of testing and fixing including testing her aircraft systems.