State Fair....

It's state fair time here in the land of Enchantment and I thought I'd try my hand at handicapping at the horse races. I can read a racing form but I also know that there are subtle indications on picking winners. Any members with any knowledge on how beat the odds with quarter horses and thoroughbreds?

a reply to: olaru12

A bit early to be drinking, eh?

originally posted by: DictionaryOfExcuses
a reply to: olaru12

A bit early to be drinking, eh?

Maybe, but that's the advantage of going to the races. You can drink and still win!!! At he holdem tables; if you drink, you lose. Part of my strategy at holdem and Omaha is to play the 11am tourny when the geezers are already hammered on meds and margaritas.

I hope it rains, sloppy tracks favor the long shots.

a reply to: olaru12

I'm not an expert, (I do sports if I want an edge, tables for fun)... But have a buddy who's really into horses.

I think his system was something along the lines as looking at the top five right before the race, and going with the calmest one. He looked for a nice calm stride when they showed them off.

originally posted by: CriticalStinker
a reply to: olaru12


I think his system was something along the lines as looking at the top five right before the race, and going with the calmest one. He looked for a nice calm stride when they showed them off.

Thanks amigo, that makes sense. I have noticed that juiced horses are tired and fade before the clubhouse turn.

a reply to: olaru12

You have a true bait-theif spirit. (A kindred spirit, rest assured.)

I wanted to start going to the tracks back when I was reading lots of Bukowski.

a reply to: olaru12

If you can, do a small pick 3 on the side, just make sure you don't use your other bet's horse so that you're hedging.

One year he put quite a bit on a horse for the Kentucky Derby and missed that, but hit the pick 3 and either broke even or came out a little ahead, and he didn't put much on the pick 3 at all. Also makes it more fun.

Inversely, you could pick the same horse, have it on the 1 slot for the pick 3 and come out huge if everything hits.

a reply to: CriticalStinker

I'll try it...

Daily doubles and trifectas usually don't work out for me.

originally posted by: olaru12
a reply to: CriticalStinker

I'll try it...

Daily doubles and trifectas usually don't work out for me.

Me either... But that's why I'd would do like 5 bucks.

trifectas are as hard as a multi line parlay in sports. But I've hit a few big ones (big for me) before, I just make sure never to bet too much on them.

Think of it like a pro athlete - The horses are high toned.

If you see they have been running every month then that horse will be beat down, or are they lugging out? Is horse either old and on the outs or new and with a bad owner/trainer team.

The horse should be coming off a win, or a close lose to keep them hungry on next race.

Chose the right gate for the weather. In a 14 gate field I like 5, 6, or 7 in the rain or 6, 7, or 8 in the dirt.

Some horse like to get to the front of the field and stay there.. rare but there. However most are late runners... If they have never been in the rain never bet because they haven't learned to take the splashing mud.

I look at the horse if possible... Are they up, ready, jaunty... Are they a good mudder in the rain. Have they been run like the Triple Crown - those races that close is hard. Have they won lately, or had a near lose?

Next I look at the jockey... Factor the weather

Then handicap it...

a reply to: olaru12

The only sure bet in gambling is not to bet.
That being said, the best advice I've ever heard about gambling is to never take a chance with money you can't afford to lose.

a reply to: olaru12

Bet on the ones that take a dump before the race. They've been fed performance enhancing drugs.

Or maybe that's the dog track I'm thinking about.

a reply to: olaru12

I'm trying to recall how Bukowski said he chose his picks, but it's been a while....

Had a good day at the track. Met a trainer and she made a big difference in my pic's. Inside info makes for a distinct advantage.