Reports: Boris poised to annouce a General Election.

originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin

originally posted by: Identified
a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

I understand what your saying but it sounds unnecessarily risky.

Seems Boris thinks the same thing as he just said he doesn't want an Election and will never ask for delay.

He plans to run out the clock which seems the most prudent action if he truly wants to get Brexit done.

He is #ed.

A bill will pass tomorrow that will legally force him to go to Brussels and ask for a 3 month extension.

His view seems to be that this would "cut the legs from under government" and that it would in essence be a vote of no confidence in his government. Furthermore he has also said that he will refuse to do this, if he refuses to adhere to the legislation he is then pludging the UK into a even bigger crisis. His only real option would be to call a general election at that point.

I heard that as his lad plea to his own MPs to back the government or face an election.

I think that they could get a general election to pass through parliament in accordance with the fixed term parliament act, follow this I think before the end of the week he will table a motion to hold a general election. That gives us 25 days so we could have a election on the 14rh of October.

My reading is that he is basically making any vote on delay effectively a vote of no confidence.

I doubt he thinks that will bring enough MPs back inline but allows him to frame any election as being forced on him.

He has a majority of one in a coalition government there is zero chance that he is going to block this bill, all it takes is one or two of his own MPs to jump ship and plenty have came out saying they will do just that.

this speach was the last desperate plea of a desperate PM to whip his party to vote along government lines.

I don't think ts really aimed at his MPs. I think it's entirely about framing the election as being forced on him by remainer MPs.

originally posted by: Identified
a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

So, a vote could get through before the 10th? I thought Parliament was being suspended on the 10th.

So tomorrow the bill goes through parliament its expected to pass, then on Wednesday it will probably get through the lords and ratified by the Queen. Once its all passed that forces Boris to do the last thing he wants to do and ask for a extension.

To avoid that he will probably want a general election, so that means it could be tabled on Thursday or friday and would probably have the support in parliament. This would kind of annul his plans to prorogue in a sense because he would then need to go to the queen and say, scrap that, I want to dissolve government and hold a general election, which she would of course agree upon.

The day is kind of up to him but to get it through parliament he would probably need to commit to doing it before the 31st of October and 25 days is the minimum.

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin

originally posted by: Identified
a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

I understand what your saying but it sounds unnecessarily risky.

Seems Boris thinks the same thing as he just said he doesn't want an Election and will never ask for delay.

He plans to run out the clock which seems the most prudent action if he truly wants to get Brexit done.

He is #ed.

A bill will pass tomorrow that will legally force him to go to Brussels and ask for a 3 month extension.

His view seems to be that this would "cut the legs from under government" and that it would in essence be a vote of no confidence in his government. Furthermore he has also said that he will refuse to do this, if he refuses to adhere to the legislation he is then pludging the UK into a even bigger crisis. His only real option would be to call a general election at that point.

I heard that as his lad plea to his own MPs to back the government or face an election.

I think that they could get a general election to pass through parliament in accordance with the fixed term parliament act, follow this I think before the end of the week he will table a motion to hold a general election. That gives us 25 days so we could have a election on the 14rh of October.

My reading is that he is basically making any vote on delay effectively a vote of no confidence.

I doubt he thinks that will bring enough MPs back inline but allows him to frame any election as being forced on him.

He has a majority of one in a coalition government there is zero chance that he is going to block this bill, all it takes is one or two of his own MPs to jump ship and plenty have came out saying they will do just that.

this speach was the last desperate plea of a desperate PM to whip his party to vote along government lines.

I don't think ts really aimed at his MPs. I think it's entirely about framing the election as being forced on him by remainer MPs.

Good point but can't it be both?

a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

Ah okay.

So, if the vote passes before the 10th and he still decides to go ahead with the prorogue won't that push back the negotiation and request with EU until the 14th of October? Then he would have to call election which wouldn't happen until 25 days later? I realize he would have to send the extension request or face other problems but would 2 weeks time work for that?

Just trying to figure out what the game plan could possibly be here if Boris is trying to Brexit now.

a reply to: Identified

His game plan is basically to scare his MPs into voting with the government otherwise he will deselect them and call a general election.

thats it in a very complicated nutshell.

originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin

originally posted by: Identified
a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

I understand what your saying but it sounds unnecessarily risky.

Seems Boris thinks the same thing as he just said he doesn't want an Election and will never ask for delay.

He plans to run out the clock which seems the most prudent action if he truly wants to get Brexit done.

He is #ed.

A bill will pass tomorrow that will legally force him to go to Brussels and ask for a 3 month extension.

His view seems to be that this would "cut the legs from under government" and that it would in essence be a vote of no confidence in his government. Furthermore he has also said that he will refuse to do this, if he refuses to adhere to the legislation he is then pludging the UK into a even bigger crisis. His only real option would be to call a general election at that point.

I heard that as his lad plea to his own MPs to back the government or face an election.

I think that they could get a general election to pass through parliament in accordance with the fixed term parliament act, follow this I think before the end of the week he will table a motion to hold a general election. That gives us 25 days so we could have a election on the 14rh of October.

My reading is that he is basically making any vote on delay effectively a vote of no confidence.

I doubt he thinks that will bring enough MPs back inline but allows him to frame any election as being forced on him.

He has a majority of one in a coalition government there is zero chance that he is going to block this bill, all it takes is one or two of his own MPs to jump ship and plenty have came out saying they will do just that.

this speach was the last desperate plea of a desperate PM to whip his party to vote along government lines.

I don't think ts really aimed at his MPs. I think it's entirely about framing the election as being forced on him by remainer MPs.

Good point but can't it be both?

I think BJ can count and knows he can't convert enough MPs.

originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin
a reply to: Identified

His game plan is basically to scare his MPs into voting with the government otherwise he will deselect them and call a general election.

thats it in a very complicated nutshell.

Pretty sure it isn't within his authority to deselect them. Pushing that risks major fights with constituency groups.

a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

Yeah, just seems to be a mess no matter how you mix it.

I'm trying to figure out if Parliament has to be is session when an extension request is sent. It seems logical that they would otherwise what body is the EU responding to? But maybe not.

originally posted by: Identified
a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

Yeah, just seems to be a mess no matter how you mix it.

I'm trying to figure out if Parliament has to be is session when an extension request is sent. It seems logical that they would otherwise what body is the EU responding to? But maybe not.

Boris wouldn’t request the extension, which is why he would hold a election then of labour won they would go and ask for a extension

originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin

originally posted by: Identified
a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

Yeah, just seems to be a mess no matter how you mix it.

I'm trying to figure out if Parliament has to be is session when an extension request is sent. It seems logical that they would otherwise what body is the EU responding to? But maybe not.

Boris wouldn’t request the extension, which is why he would hold a election then of labour won they would go and ask for a extension

So BJ has said no circumstances he will ask for an extension

What happens if their if a vote to compel him to goes through on.a simple majority but there is not the required 60% votes to force a general election?

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin

originally posted by: Identified
a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

Yeah, just seems to be a mess no matter how you mix it.

I'm trying to figure out if Parliament has to be is session when an extension request is sent. It seems logical that they would otherwise what body is the EU responding to? But maybe not.

Boris wouldn’t request the extension, which is why he would hold a election then of labour won they would go and ask for a extension

So BJ has said no circumstances he will ask for an extension

What happens if their if a vote to compel him to goes through on.a simple majority but there is not the required 60% votes to force a general election?

#ed.....lol

originally posted by: paraphi
The Labour Party will be split by the Liberals and the popularist nationalists in Scotland will use a General Election as a warm up for their second divisive referendum and major on their dislike of the Tories, read the English.

Can you please, please stop regurgitating the absolute codswallop that this is an anti-English thing, it's an anti-Westminster thing. The English populace at large are not causing us any grief (except perhaps grasping the wrong end of the stick when it comes to the reasons us Scots want our independence), it's the politicians in Westminster and the fact that it's very rare our vote makes a difference and we never get the result we, as a devolved nation, vote for (and I just don't mean the divisive Brexit Referendum)


Repeating that hogwash will never, ever make it true!!!

a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

That's my thinking.
IF Labor won.

I think Boris believes the issue isn't with the Party so much as with those in his party who are willing to push back the Brexit for a better deal and that this vote joins with the remainers. Many don't want a no deal Brexit but those same MPs are not willing to vote Liberal as well.

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin
a reply to: Identified

Pretty sure it isn't within his authority to deselect them. Pushing that risks major fights with constituency groups.

You mean the very people that selected him as PM?

originally posted by: Tortuga

originally posted by: ScepticScot

originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin
a reply to: Identified

Pretty sure it isn't within his authority to deselect them. Pushing that risks major fights with constituency groups.

You mean the very people that selected him as PM?

I believe MPs are selected (or de selected) by the local committee, not the party membership.

Regardless voting for him as leader is not the same as accepting a power grab by him.

They exist to gain power, tories know if they don't deliver Brexit then they will get decimated in the polls. They will do whatever they think they should do to get power. The polls are way in favour of Johnson right now, they would storm a general election. So I don't see anyone from the Conservative party arguing if MPs are deselected.

All this theoretical analysis is hot air. All Boris has to do is to get a few lords loyal to him to filibuster in the House of Lords during its reading of any bill hostile to the government and it will die for lack of time, leaving him able to suspend parliament as he intended.

a reply to: micpsi

Running out the clock is exactly what I think Boris has to believe he is confident he can accomplish for any of this to work the way it is unfolding.

Perfect.
He can remove all the dissenting MPs from the Conservative party and call a general election, replacing candidates with people who actually respect the will of the people. Win the election - get us out of the fascist regime of the EU.

originally posted by: micpsi
All this theoretical analysis is hot air. All Boris has to do is to get a few lords loyal to him to filibuster in the House of Lords during its reading of any bill hostile to the government and it will die for lack of time, leaving him able to suspend parliament as he intended.

Exactly. The bill can be made to languish in the House of Lords until after we have left with no deal on 31st October.