Can China Invade Taiwan

a reply to: Wayfarer

They've been doing that for a while.

It's been ramped up over the last few years from what I remember. They're not ready to take on the US especially in a drawn out war. They'll lose everything as things are.

But no I don't think they're amassing for fun, they're not modernising or focusing on military discipline for fun either. Yet they've still got a long way to go...

originally posted by: RAY1990
a reply to: Wayfarer

They've been doing that for a while.

It's been ramped up over the last few years from what I remember. They're not ready to take on the US especially in a drawn out war. They'll lose everything as things are.

But no I don't think they're amassing for fun, they're not modernising or focusing on military discipline for fun either. Yet they've still got a long way to go...

What interest does Trump/US have in protecting HK exactly? You seem to have this idea that there would be an immediate response from America militarily, and I rather suspect the most we'd launch are some angry tweets....

originally posted by: Wayfarer

originally posted by: RAY1990
a reply to: Wayfarer

They've been doing that for a while.

It's been ramped up over the last few years from what I remember. They're not ready to take on the US especially in a drawn out war. They'll lose everything as things are.

But no I don't think they're amassing for fun, they're not modernising or focusing on military discipline for fun either. Yet they've still got a long way to go...

What interest does Trump/US have in protecting HK exactly? You seem to have this idea that there would be an immediate response from America militarily, and I rather suspect the most we'd launch are some angry tweets....

I think you're confusing HK with Taiwan....

originally posted by: AaarghZombies

Besides, China believes that it already has Taiwan. Why invade your own terretory? It would be like America invading Ohio.

Ohio is technically not a state in the union as it was never formally admitted to the union, but I digress. I have contingency plans if the state doesn’t, so Ohio is ready. We will have DC locked down within 36 hours with 10,000 men (2400 of which will be sent to diversion targets). As for individual states, they best know their place and which side to be on.

a reply to: FredT

I guess the X factor here is Trump.

What we really do not know is how much has he discussed and how amicable Kim Jong-un is to opening North Korea to industrial investment opportunities. Kim has seen the wealth that both China and South Korea has amassed in just a few decades. With employment and wealth opportunity, there would be less migration South as borders relax even without an official partial reunification.

By shifting from China to (North) Korea as trade partners, it could radically change the power structure of Asia. And Kim could crow about defeating China by wise decisions versus China’s blunt force economic tactics with the US by entering the Trade War.

a reply to: Ahabstar

I believe that's the key and Trumps approach to Kim, you can even see it in all his tweets.

Truth is, I bet Trump even told Kim that they can run things however they wish, keep them in power, just shelve their nuclear ambitions and agree to a US defense pact.

In return, they get business investments and their mass pop will be quickly put to work for cheap, replacing their counterparts in China.

It is honestly a sweet SWEET deal, which tells me that Kim has something to fear from China as a result of not taking a deal.

a reply to: Arnie123

That China cuts off that bridge and all the supplies they send over it everyday. Hard to build a tomorrow that takes ten years when you are starving today. The US does not domestically produce enough food and goods to shuttle it to North Korea fast enough to cover their need.

Any promise to do so and provide the naval escort needed to protect it would not sit well with the US. Especially when the opposing party makes it a football. Second point is how would Russia feel about a more stable Korea? Stability makes for stronger resistance if Russia had a plan to expand to old Soviet Union proportions.

a reply to: TritonTaranis

They are taking it intact, they’re taking it politically, I can’t count the amount of 
Taiwanese who claim they’re Chinese, 

Uhm, they are Chinese... That's like saying I can't count the number of Georgians who claim they are Americans. They are Chinese people living in exile/rebellion from the mainland. In their civil war/Mao's revolution, the "Cash my Check" and the ROC government ended up fleeing to the island of Taiwan, which was and is a part of China post '45. The proper name for the government on the island of Taiwan is "The Republic of China".
Both chinese governments think they should control all of China. Both countries consider themselves Chinese, and both want to see "one China". For reunification, the devil is in the details. There is no way the ROC is going to cede all their civil liberties to live under communist control. And the Chictime.have no intention of stepping away from power.

You are right about one thing, though. The PRC is playing the long game. They aren't worried about election years. They can afford to take their sweet time.

originally posted by: Ahabstar
a reply to: Arnie123

That China cuts off that bridge and all the supplies they send over it everyday. Hard to build a tomorrow that takes ten years when you are starving today. The US does not domestically produce enough food and goods to shuttle it to North Korea fast enough to cover their need.

I think you underestimate the South Koreans desire to unify, and they already bend over backwards in respect to aid. And it so happens, we currently have a large surplus of Ag to export as China has refused to buy what they had earlier indicated they would. Between the two, you could prop up NKorea until they stabilize. It wouldn't be pretty in transition, but I think there is an opportunity there.

originally posted by: Wayfarer

originally posted by: RAY1990
a reply to: Wayfarer

They've been doing that for a while.

It's been ramped up over the last few years from what I remember. They're not ready to take on the US especially in a drawn out war. They'll lose everything as things are.

But no I don't think they're amassing for fun, they're not modernising or focusing on military discipline for fun either. Yet they've still got a long way to go...

What interest does Trump/US have in protecting HK exactly? You seem to have this idea that there would be an immediate response from America militarily, and I rather suspect the most we'd launch are some angry tweets....

There would be complaints and sanctions etc but that's about it. Eventual mainland Chinese domination of HK is the deal the UK signed in 97. It's just not supposed to happen for another 30 years.

We bought some time of thier continued freedom to salve our consciences but the Chinese have decided not to wait it out. They are guessing nobody in the rest of the world will fight to force them to keep to the original terms. They are right. I feel very sorry for the HK Chinese. A grim future in the Chinese Communist party dystopia awaits them.

originally posted by: justwokeup

originally posted by: Wayfarer

originally posted by: RAY1990
a reply to: Wayfarer

They've been doing that for a while.

It's been ramped up over the last few years from what I remember. They're not ready to take on the US especially in a drawn out war. They'll lose everything as things are.

But no I don't think they're amassing for fun, they're not modernising or focusing on military discipline for fun either. Yet they've still got a long way to go...

What interest does Trump/US have in protecting HK exactly? You seem to have this idea that there would be an immediate response from America militarily, and I rather suspect the most we'd launch are some angry tweets....

There would be complaints and sanctions etc but that's about it. Eventual mainland Chinese domination of HK is the deal the UK signed in 97. It's just not supposed to happen for another 30 years.

We bought some time of thier continued freedom to salve our consciences but the Chinese have decided not to wait it out. They are guessing nobody in the rest of the world will fight to force them to keep to the original terms. They are right. I feel very sorry for the HK Chinese. A grim future in the Chinese Communist party dystopia awaits them.

Not to be all doom and gloom but I'd wager there's going to be a surplus of Chinese organ donations proportional to the rough evaluation of protesters rounded up.

a reply to: FredT

Thoughts?

I gotta wonder; suppose for example the next POTUS is Elizabeth Warren or Tulsi Gabbard or Cory Booker. Assuming that one of them were, who do you think would give the order for US forces to intervene on Taiwan's behalf? I kinda doubt one of them would.

And even if they did...............how much stomach do you really think US Americans have for a war with China? For one thing, it would utterly ruin the US economy!

I just don't see it; if China waits for the right person to occupy the White Hut, Taiwan's theirs for the taking!

a reply to: TonyS

1) China cant just take Taiwan. They can get a couple of airborne and naval infantry division over if they are lucky. The Taiwanese Army is second rate, but if they are willing to fight the Chinese cant hope to take the island by force.

2) It would be political suicide for any US President not aid Taiwan if the ROC decides to fight. It may also be political suicide to go to war with China over Taiwan if the war doesnt go well, but abandoning an defacto ally, appeasement in the face of blatant aggression and sitting idly by while a first world nation gets slaughtered will be extremely bad optics.

3) You seriously think POTUS would have sufficient political room for manoeuver to decide either way? Such decisions are not made by the likes of Warren, Gabbard, Booker or Trump.

originally posted by: Wayfarer

originally posted by: RAY1990
a reply to: Wayfarer

They've been doing that for a while.

It's been ramped up over the last few years from what I remember. They're not ready to take on the US especially in a drawn out war. They'll lose everything as things are.

But no I don't think they're amassing for fun, they're not modernising or focusing on military discipline for fun either. Yet they've still got a long way to go...

What interest does Trump/US have in protecting HK exactly? You seem to have this idea that there would be an immediate response from America militarily, and I rather suspect the most we'd launch are some angry tweets....

Hong Kong is Chinese territory... I'm talking about Taiwan.

The US has used heavy handed tactics in defence of Taiwan in the past, look up the Taiwanese Straight crisis.

The US sent two carrier groups last time.

originally posted by: Ahabstar
a reply to: Arnie123

That China cuts off that bridge and all the supplies they send over it everyday. Hard to build a tomorrow that takes ten years when you are starving today. The US does not domestically produce enough food and goods to shuttle it to North Korea fast enough to cover their need.

Any promise to do so and provide the naval escort needed to protect it would not sit well with the US. Especially when the opposing party makes it a football. Second point is how would Russia feel about a more stable Korea? Stability makes for stronger resistance if Russia had a plan to expand to old Soviet Union proportions.

Ruskies will not accept more US bases around it. So if NK does reunited under South, guarantee SK will have to either kick out the Americans or join the Chinese by force. US is playing the puppet game for too long. Russian and India is not stupid to have giant US bases surrounding it.

a reply to: FredT

I agree with a lot of what you are saying. I would add this, though. The Chinese are still catching up. This may be the point in time where they get the greatest bang for their buck. As the US Navy rolls out new systems like the F-35 and the various unmanned surface and subsurface systems that are planned, the US Navy has already started to pull ahead of it's various near-peer adversaries. In ten years, this may be a pipe dream for the Chinese. If they recognize this, it's hard to say what they will do,

originally posted by: GD
a reply to: FredT

I agree with a lot of what you are saying. I would add this, though. The Chinese are still catching up. This may be the point in time where they get the greatest bang for their buck. As the US Navy rolls out new systems like the F-35 and the various unmanned surface and subsurface systems that are planned, the US Navy has already started to pull ahead of it's various near-peer adversaries. In ten years, this may be a pipe dream for the Chinese. If they recognize this, it's hard to say what they will do,

I have to agree and with the potential change in economic markets around the world, those near peer adversaries will feel the pain.