Should truck drivers be worried

a reply to: Edumakated

In the not too distant future I foresee almost all jobs being automated. The economy is going to need to be drastically changed. One more reason why importing so many immigrants is going to hurt the US. In an automated economy more people is harmful.

a reply to: Edumakated

I work in mortgage / real estate and we are being attacked on all sides right now.

Not just mortgages, but real estate agents. I used a broker for my last house. I did the work like photos/staging, the broker put everything on MLS. I only paid 2.4% commission for the sale. It worked a lot better than FSBO but the writing is on the wall there too.

originally posted by: Joefoster
a reply to: JAGStorm

Yes, truck drivers should be worried, consumers should cheer, with the reduction in shipping costs via autonomous vehicles will be a direct cost savings that could be passed onto the consumer.

Yeah, consumers love saving that 50 cents until it is their job that is being eliminated to lower costs... it is a vicious circle.

originally posted by: Joefoster
a reply to: JAGStorm

Yes, truck drivers should be worried, consumers should cheer, with the reduction in shipping costs via autonomous vehicles will be a direct cost savings that could be passed onto the consumer.

I do not believe for an iota of a second that the savings will be passed on. The profit will be passed to shareholders though, remember that!

Watch!



A driver is still needed, but not on the highway.

This is older technology. So yes eventually it's possible that larger fleets would switch over to totally automated trucks that could drive a load from A to B, assuming ground crews will prepare the load and rig at point A and similar crews can handle the load after arrival at point B. No driver necessary from A to B.

Some day.

originally posted by: JAGStorm

originally posted by: Joefoster
a reply to: JAGStorm

Yes, truck drivers should be worried, consumers should cheer, with the reduction in shipping costs via autonomous vehicles will be a direct cost savings that could be passed onto the consumer.

I do not believe for an iota of a second that the savings will be passed on. The profit will be passed to shareholders though, remember that!

It is passed on... competition will ensure it results in lower prices. Very few industries are able to extract exorbidant profits because of competition. And when there are exorbitant profits, it usually doesn't last long because other companies will want in on the action and drive down prices.

Think about it.

Company A automates to save money. This allows them to undercut Company B's prices and gain market share. They may save say $1 on shipping from automation, but only maybe 50 cents of it is going back to the company. The other 50 cent savings allows them to lower prices to undercut competition that may not yet be automated.

Eventually Company B automates after losing business to Company A. Now they both are saving $1.00 on shipping from automation. Company B can now match the price of Company A.

Company A now has to take the 50 cents they were keeping and reduce prices even more because Company B is competing against them.

At the end of the day, the consumer sees maybe 75 cents lower costs on shipping across the entire industry. At some point, it may be the entire $1.00 in the example.

All the companies start looking for other ways to save money.

a reply to: JAGStorm

Our trash pick up is already pretty automated.
They drive up to the curb and an arm comes out and picks up the trash pail or the recycle bin and dumps it onto the truck.
Then it puts the pail back on the curb and drives to the next house.
There is one man and all he does is drive. Sometimes he has to get out if something falls on the street but mostly not.
Large refuse like appliances and yard waste is the same only instead of an arm its a giant claw.
I don't know if they can get any more automated than that because humans load the pails and they dont always have everything in there securely and stuff falls out when the pail is lifted. They'd have to have a little sweeper or vac at street level to get the stuff that falls.
That sounds like expensive equipment. But I guess it could happen.
I'd pay a dollar to see that. LOL

originally posted by: butcherguy
It all sounds rosy until there is a major glitch on Interstate 81.

Woof, especially in the two lane section winding through Virginia's mountains. I can't count how many times a stretch that should take me 30 minutes takes me over an hour.

I can see it coming soon, for long hauls, on highways, but not so much in urban areas. They can't even get the cars right. Too much can go wrong.

But being in an industry, that is already automated, the money is in maintenance and repair. Big money really.

a reply to: rickymouse

There will only be the wealthy leisure class. The ones who own the fully automated businesses.
Or own the fully automated drug companies or hospitals because even the rich get sick.

There wont be any need for a lower class or middle class.

a reply to: JAGStorm

I use online reservation systems exclusively. I don't find them difficult at all and I love having photo galleries of the places I want to stay and visit.
TBH I never used a travel agent before these systems either. I called airlines and hotels and did it myself over the phone.

IMO,
only the long haul highway drives will be automated- and even then not that many in ten years.
The drivers will still be needed for last-mile delivery, and any stretches that are off-highway.

I doubt I'll see self driving cars on the Maine backroads in my life- the conditions just aren't suitable for a computer to drive them.

a reply to: Joefoster

Fat Chance!!

No way is this going to happen! Seller's know they can sell their product at a given price, if they can figure out a way to cut the costs of that product they're going to keep the product at the same price and put the savings in the bank to improve their stock outlook.

No way are these savings gong to the consumer.

originally posted by: Edumakated

originally posted by: JAGStorm

originally posted by: Joefoster
a reply to: JAGStorm

Yes, truck drivers should be worried, consumers should cheer, with the reduction in shipping costs via autonomous vehicles will be a direct cost savings that could be passed onto the consumer.

I do not believe for an iota of a second that the savings will be passed on. The profit will be passed to shareholders though, remember that!

It is passed on... competition will ensure it results in lower prices. Very few industries are able to extract exorbidant profits because of competition. And when there are exorbitant profits, it usually doesn't last long because other companies will want in on the action and drive down prices.

You are far too kind and trusting.

Did automation bring down the price of the car you drive? Nope.

Did automation ever bring down the cost of the FedEx / UPS package you ship? Nope.

The mail you send through USPS? Nope.

Did automation in agriculture ever bring down the cost of your visit to the grocery store? Nope.

Oh sure, some will argue, the prices would have gone up even more without the automation, but this is just a strawman ruse.

ETA - I witness it every day. "If we can automate this process, we can cut this many heads, and increase our margin by x%.. Don't think for one second this is about passing savings along to consumers. To do so would be naive. People are expensive, automation is cheap. Here's why...it's not about the direct costs. Automation usually costs more up front than the direct costs of a body, but where the real savings in automation are is all the indirect costs, things like healthcare, insurance, retirement, vacation, HR, etc, etc, etc. The list goes on. In the trucking industry (especially) shippers know one of their biggest obstacles is the DOT regulatory world (driving hours in particular). Automation gets them around these regulations.

This has nothing to do with passing savings on to consumers, and everything to do with reducing CAPEX and OPEX expenditures and optimizing profits by reducing fleet size due to less down time. It is all about eliminating the human from the work force. And, wherever that body shows up next, will be where business focuses its next automation initiative. Every time. Rinse and repeat.

originally posted by: Flyingclaydisk

originally posted by: Edumakated

originally posted by: JAGStorm

originally posted by: Joefoster
a reply to: JAGStorm

Yes, truck drivers should be worried, consumers should cheer, with the reduction in shipping costs via autonomous vehicles will be a direct cost savings that could be passed onto the consumer.

I do not believe for an iota of a second that the savings will be passed on. The profit will be passed to shareholders though, remember that!

It is passed on... competition will ensure it results in lower prices. Very few industries are able to extract exorbidant profits because of competition. And when there are exorbitant profits, it usually doesn't last long because other companies will want in on the action and drive down prices.

You are far too kind and trusting.

Did automation bring down the price of the car you drive? Nope.

Did automation ever bring down the cost of the FedEx / UPS package you ship? Nope.

The mail you send through USPS? Nope.

Did automation in agriculture ever bring down the cost of your visit to the grocery store? Nope.

Oh sure, some will argue, the prices would have gone up even more without the automation, but this is just a strawman ruse.

Yes...

Cars: Think about all the tech that is in cars now vs from even 15 or 20 years ago. Go look up the price of a say a 1999 civic base model and compare it to the price (adjusting for inflation) of a 2019 civic. Now think about how much better a 2019 civic is from a safety and tech standpoint. I'll guarantee that once you factor inflation, the 2019 is cheaper than the 1999 model.

FedEx/UPS: Yes. You have more shipping options/times than from before. More ability to track, change shipping, etc. Again, go look at what it cost 20 years ago versus today but also factor in all the additional services you have now versus then.

USPS: Not really relevant. They also don't operate under normal market conditions.

Food: Were people clamoring for avocados grown organically, raised by Elves 30 years ago? no. You can find cheap food if you don't want the uber fancy organic stuff.

You get far more for your money nowadays than you did in the past because of automation and tech.

Think about how cheap a 4k HDTV is relative to the refrigerator boxes we had back in the day. In fact, no other product has seen such price declines as TVs. Computers. Phones.

In competitive markets, lower cost are absolutely passed on to consumers. it can be reflected in prices that don't rise as fast and new tech making the products better.

How does a self driving truck fill the fuel tank at a self serve fuel pump ? 😧

originally posted by: Flyingclaydisk

originally posted by: Edumakated

originally posted by: JAGStorm

originally posted by: Joefoster
a reply to: JAGStorm

Yes, truck drivers should be worried, consumers should cheer, with the reduction in shipping costs via autonomous vehicles will be a direct cost savings that could be passed onto the consumer.

I do not believe for an iota of a second that the savings will be passed on. The profit will be passed to shareholders though, remember that!

It is passed on... competition will ensure it results in lower prices. Very few industries are able to extract exorbidant profits because of competition. And when there are exorbitant profits, it usually doesn't last long because other companies will want in on the action and drive down prices.

You are far too kind and trusting.

Did automation bring down the price of the car you drive? Nope.

Did automation ever bring down the cost of the FedEx / UPS package you ship? Nope.

The mail you send through USPS? Nope.

Did automation in agriculture ever bring down the cost of your visit to the grocery store? Nope.

Oh sure, some will argue, the prices would have gone up even more without the automation, but this is just a strawman ruse.

I went and did it for you....

Honda Civic CX, no options in 1999 sold for $10,650. This was a crap box econocar. 5 spd. 106 HP. No air conditioning. no radio. Maybe driver side airbag. Roll up windows. About as basic A to B transportation that you could get....

Inflation adjusted that $10,650 is equivalent to $16,370 today. 20 years later.

A 2019 Honda Civic, no options in 2019 is $19,450. However, you now get a 6 speed, 158 HP. Radio/blue tooth. Airbags all around. Adaptive Cruise Control. Lane Keeping. Collision Mitigation. More sound insulation. It is a night and day difference between the two cars.

After factoring inflation, much of the price difference is that it is simply a much better car. To further illustrate... this base model Civic has tech in it that my $55,000 SUV I bought five years ago doesn't have!

Profit margins at companies are not that high. When a company saves money by cutting operational costs, it almost always will show up in lower prices to consumers at some point. Their competitors will try to undercut so in the end, consumers almost always will see lower prices and/or better products as a result. This is why competitive markets always bring down prices.

Another example is airlines. Think how cheaply you can fly now versus from when it was a regulated market. I can literally fly from Chicago to NYC for like $100 sometimes. My freaking cab ride to O'hare is $50! All the operation efficiencies get passed on to the consumer in the form of lower prices because airlines know consumers shop on price more than anything.

a reply to: Edumakated

You're living in fantasy land.

This isn't about getting cool new technology, this is about automation passing along cost savings to consumers.

Inflation is just an excuse to jack up prices and extract more money from your wallet.

4k TV's, phones and computers get cheaper because of market competition, not because of automation. They're all automated. This is irrelevant.

Cars: What percentage of the average annual salary does a car cost today versus 20 - 30 years ago?

FedEx/UPS - When FedEx first started it cost $20 to ship something 'when it absolutely has to be there tomorrow'. Diversity has nothing to do with automation, and everything to do with market demand. Again, irrelevant.

Food - Most people could care less about organic avocados grown by elves, but how much does a head of lettuce, or broccoli, cost today versus 20 years ago? A pound of ground beef, or a can of beans?

Get more for your money??? Seriously??? You actually think you get more for every dollar you spend today than you did 20-30 years ago??? You've GOT to be kidding me!

You can't use improvements in technology as a justification for automation. Automation didn't create these advances in technology, people did. Consequently, you can't make an argument which says automation gave you a 4k TV for $300. The two things are like comparing apples to screw drivers.

a reply to: Edumakated

Oh GAWD...don't even get me started on the airlines!! (something I live and breathe every single day).

I think I'll just stop here.

Enjoy your flight! (...but the seat belt is gonna' cost you $8 bucks).

ETA - If people could see the things I see every day they'd never fly again in their lives! Seriously!)

originally posted by: Flyingclaydisk
a reply to: Edumakated

You're living in fantasy land.

This isn't about getting cool new technology, this is about automation passing along cost savings to consumers.

Inflation is just an excuse to jack up prices and extract more money from your wallet.

4k TV's, phones and computers get cheaper because of market competition, not because of automation. They're all automated. This is irrelevant.

Cars: What percentage of the average annual salary does a car cost today versus 20 - 30 years ago?

FedEx/UPS - When FedEx first started it cost $20 to ship something 'when it absolutely has to be there tomorrow'. Diversity has nothing to do with automation, and everything to do with market demand. Again, irrelevant.

Food - Most people could care less about organic avocados grown by elves, but how much does a head of lettuce, or broccoli, cost today versus 20 years ago? A pound of ground beef, or a can of beans?

Get more for your money??? Seriously??? You actually think you get more for every dollar you spend today than you did 20-30 years ago??? You've GOT to be kidding me!

You can't use improvements in technology as a justification for automation. Automation didn't create these advances in technology, people did. Consequently, you can't make an argument which says automation gave you a 4k TV for $300. The two things are like comparing apples to screw drivers.

You simply don't understand business. You contradicted yourself.

You stated that competition drives down prices. Ok. We agree. However, the part you are missing is that automation is part of that competition. Companies seek for ways to lower their costs BECAUSE OF COMPETITION. The reason they want to automate is because if the company has a lower cost structure, they can undercut their competitors cost wise and gain market share. They can offer a better product for a lower cost.

In the short term, companies may try to keep savings for shareholders, but as long as their is a competitor breathing down their neck, they can't because the competitor will offer a lower price if they achieve the same savings.

I work in a very price sensitive business. We are constantly looking for ways to lower costs because we know lowest price wins 90% of the time. Any savinsg we get from automation, efficiency ultimately winds up at the consumer level.

Heck, I'd be a steak dinner for most industries if you go look at historical profit levels of most industries, you will find they stay the same over time IN SPITE of all the automation and cost cutting.