Trump Campaign Fires Pollsters After Mixed Messaging

When President Donald Trump's internal polling suggested he was trailing Democrats in crucial states earlier this year, it did what any campaign would do: tried to bury the bad numbers.

When the findings leaked to the media anyway, an infuriated Trump and his aides first disputed the poll's existence, then tried to dismiss its importance before finally firing some of the pollsters.

The deception and muddled messaging are part reflexive: Trump and his team have made a habit of discounting embarrassing news as "fake." But the internal drama on the brink of Trump's formal reelection launch could also signal trouble ahead if staffers are skittish about being candid with a boss who has made "winning" a central part of his brand.

"All news about the president's polling is completely false," campaign manager Brad Parscale said in a statement. "The president's new polling is extraordinary and his numbers have never been better."

Link

Sounds like the opening to the Quest for the Holy Grail. The people responsible for the error have been sacked. And the people responsible for the sacking have been sacked. By the way, have you been to...



This is pure comedy. We did not like the polls that the previous staff had put out so we fired them. And we hired new people and now the polls are terrific. In fact, the numbers are better than ever.

Are there still gullible people out there who fall for this stuff?

FIRE!

a reply to: Duderino

did you make your account exclusively for shilling for democrats?

there was a similar surge in shill accounts leading up to the 2016 election.

I don't believe half of the polls, the people doing the poles are often hired to try to convince people to vote a certain way. I have taken many of the polls on the phone, was on some sort of list or something....probably since I finished the poll, they sold my name or something.

If the political party funds a poll, they want it worded so that it will show results in their favor. If the people doing the poll can't do that, they get canned. The Dems and Republicans both rig the polls they get, same with the media polls, they want results that match their desired outcome.

Never trust a political poll. Someone always pays to get a poll done, someone who wants a result that favors them.

A lot of people want to be on the winning side. The politicians know this. If they steer polls to make it look like someone is going to win, many people will vote for the one they believe everyone else is voting for. Kind of a weird thing, but this is used in politics extensively, it is not new, it has been utilized for many decades, maybe even a century or two. It is used in all countries, it is a political propaganda scheme.

The issue isn't with the bad internal polling numbers, the problem is with leaking internal polling numbers. Something many don't understand is that there is a lot more to internal polling that meets the eye. For all we know the internal polling numbers were in relation to a very specific group, yet none of the "leaked sources" have any methodology listed.

And firing the people who fired the pollsters is because of the language they used in doing so, they responded to outside sources without permission to. When it comes to campaign management, speaking for the person who's campaign it is better give specific instructions to do so.

So the firings are both warranted, and if anyone did either of those things even in a local election they would be fired immediately. Heck I worked for a local campaign where that happened, and some doofus leaked party database info.

a reply to: Duderino

They misinterpret the problem. His staffers could be honest to the president even if it was bad news, the problem is the "leaking" of those polls.

But the denying, who are they kidding?

The poll results were and are bad, and that's a fact. Denying it only confirms it more.

a reply to: snarfbot

Your post doesn't address the OP.

a reply to: rickymouse
Both RNC and DNC have access to all voter rolls, and related data.
As for the wording part, yes it happens a lot, and sometimes the pollsters are not even aware they are doing it. There are even biases that show up due to the order that choices are listed even when the wording itself is neutral. The major problem with pushing for skewed data means it isn't actionable or relevant, and that is why Trump had some people doing analysis that were not party affiliated. Unfortunately, that also means there is a risk of leaks if they think they can get away with it.

originally posted by: rickymouse.
Never trust a political poll. Someone always pays to get a poll done, someone who wants a result that favors them.

So their own poll was biased against them?

Polling by a company started by one of their own, Kelly Conway.

Makes sense.

... you people still fall for this nonsense?

but two people familiar with the situation

I mean, seriously..how many times do you need to be embarrassed for believing these made up sources?

Since when have Poll Numbers ever mattered to Trump?

It didn't matter in 2016 when they said he didn't have a chance - and he won
It didn't matter in 2017 when they said everyone wanted him impeached - and they didn't
It didn't matter in 2018 when they said he was guilty of collusion - and he wasn't
It won't matter in 2019 or 2020 either because when you look at the crowds lining up for his rally's, when you look at his economic numbers, when you look at the support..

he's going to annihilate the Democrats.

Any ''pollster'' who says other wise is deliberately fudging the numbers with the same goal in mind as 2016

'' undecided voters will vote who they 'think' will win '' so the news tries to tell you that the Democrats will win.

a reply to: ghaleon12
Yes, it happens a lot. When you are doing internal polling you want a range of data, and if you are not getting information that is biased in both directions, as well as neutral data, you are doing something wrong. You want to be able to test things as minute as differences of wording and response rate to the different wording to gauge reactions and sentiments. Lower level polling doesn't go this in depth, however the best of polling does go that deep, and allows you to catch bias and correct your own biases.

a reply to: Agit8dChop

You're not getting what happened. This is Trump's own campaign running the polls and they told him the polling was bad and he was trailing the democrats. So he fired his own people and now the new people are saying he's amazing and he's doing better than ever.

It makes no difference if you don't like the polls, or if I don't like the polls, or if ATS as a whole does not like them. Trump likes them. And he hires people to do them for him. And then he hires new people sometimes.

FYI - The POLL THAT MATTERS: twitter.com...

a reply to: Duderino

I don't think you get it...

Its another article based on ' people familiar with... '

I'm yet top see a single article this past 3 years that's truthful where the sources is 'people familiar with..'

Master Strategy at work 😎

a reply to: Duderino

I understand the people doing the "calling" used the wrong lists 😀

a reply to: Duderino
And Trump hired a plethora of different pollsters and analysts in his 2016 election. Including people that were dyed in the wool democrats. If you want actual actionable data from polls you need many biases present, which means multiple polls with multiple methodologies.

www.wired.com...

The election upset already has inspired headlines about data being dead. Trump did, after all, reject the need for data, only to hire Cambridge Analytica during the summer after clinching the nomination. But Oczkowski believes such a characterization is as much a misreading of the situation as the polls themselves. "Data is not dead," he says, before repeating the old political adage that data doesn't win campaigns, it only win margins. "Data’s alive and kicking. It’s just how you use it and how you buck normal political trends to understand your data."

a reply to: snarfbot

Dude, this place is like 90% right wing if not more. Nothing makes it to the front page unless it's right wing. If anyone is hiring "shills" they are of the right wing variety not left wing.

originally posted by: dubiousatworst
a reply to: rickymouse
Both RNC and DNC have access to all voter rolls, and related data.
As for the wording part, yes it happens a lot, and sometimes the pollsters are not even aware they are doing it. There are even biases that show up due to the order that choices are listed even when the wording itself is neutral. The major problem with pushing for skewed data means it isn't actionable or relevant, and that is why Trump had some people doing analysis that were not party affiliated. Unfortunately, that also means there is a risk of leaks if they think they can get away with it.

You are right about awareness, some people do not even realize they are making questions that are misleading. Their beliefs can mess with how they word things. I see that all the time around here, people do not even realize they are bias. Professional people cannot see they are not doing things right often, their beliefs and knowledge they hold causes as much misinterpretation as those who know nothing about it. Knowledge and belief can easily blind people.

originally posted by: 3NL1GHT3N3D1
a reply to: snarfbot

Dude, this place is like 90% right wing if not more. Nothing makes it to the front page unless it's right wing. If anyone is hiring "shills" they are of the right wing variety not left wing.

I laughed hard at this, this is why your credibility is shot 🤭