2020 Presidential election simplified

a reply to: Willtell

" 2020 Presidential election simplified "


Trump WINS ......................Next Profound Thought Willie ...........

a reply to: Zanti Misfit

You don’t see the point hat the election comes down to 4 swing states.


All the candidates have to do is go to those 4 or 5 states.

On paper Biden should be the favorite, but when it comes down to it I think he's going to falter. I dont think he generates almost much excitement among democrats, and I think he's going to be vulernable when the full power of the right wing machine (Fox, Brietbart, Rush, etc) starts putting their full focus on him and start to pick him apart. I'd be shocked if we dont have anchors on national television calling him a pedo and a creep as you see here. That will hurt him with the public. I feel like they'd hold that off until after he wins the primary (if he does) for maximum effect.

Double Post.

originally posted by: Willtell
a reply to: Zanti Misfit

You don’t see the point hat the election comes down to 4 swing states.


All the candidates have to do is go to those 4 or 5 states.

That's only true in the year before the election. I've watched 10 presidential elections; and every year, some previously "safe state" is suddenly in play:

"Its always an upset when when a republican wins."

Democrats have pithed themselves so they don't have to remember the 1984 election. Mondale won ... 1 state. Yep, 49 for the Gipper. Last time, Nobody dreamt Hillary could lose Michigan and Wisconsin. Her loss only makes it look hindsight wise that they are somehow "up for grabs."

With a disruptor like DJ Trump, everything is up for grabs

YOUR THEORY supposes Biden get the numbers out to vote like HRC and BHB did, don't think he does LOL in fact bet he has a gaffe or 3 that turns the Democrats off in droves.

When Trump was elected I thought no way he gets re-elected, he will screw something up or at least look like he did. Instead, it's the Dems that repeatably have shot themselves in the foot. Biden does not move the needle enough to get the volume of voters out, barring war or economic collapse we got Donald 4 more years

I can see economic collapse undoing trump, not sure about war though. Nations tend not to change leaders during wars when they are fresh. War may actually help Trump, which is why I'm concerned with what is happening in Iran atm.

a reply to: WilltellYou have Trumpzilla rampaging across DC, or maybe TrumpyKong climbing up the Washington Monument with AOC in his claw. To stop him you have... the Munchkin dems from the Land Of Oz. Sit back and enjoy the circus.

a reply to: CriticalStinker

I don't think "Biden's ties" will adversely affect him as much as rudy's plan to enlist the help of yet another foreign government to dig up dirt on another political opponent will.
But I am not sure about Biden for other reasons. One of the newest entrants has caught my attention. He seems that he may be someone who might be able to work with both parties and we really need to get out of this pig pen, get cleaned up, and start working together taking care of things instead of just slinging the pig sludge at each other.

Oh, dear, oh, dear, oh, dear...

Yea, it comes down to 4 states... always does. I can guarantee that, barring some sort of unfathomable disaster, Alabama will go for Trump even stronger than in 2016. I can almost guarantee the same thing in Mississippi, Louisiana, Tennessee, and Georgia (thanks to Abrams not being governor and therefore not allowing election tampering). So we're not really in play... except... a few states have decided to let us vote in their elections! So the more the Southern states turn out, the closer it gets to Colorado actually voting for Trump! No one has mentioned this much... but it's the truth. All the GOP has to do is crank up the fear in mid-2020, and conservatives will turn out in droves for Trump.

How will this affect Biden?

Well, Joe has a few flaws. He'll likely get the DNC nomination, because he's the closest to middle-of-the-road the DNC has and he has what is considered to be a proven track record, being an ex Vice President. But he's running against 22 other Democrats (23 if you count AOC, who seems to have a penchant for ticking off voters). AOC has already fired off one attack, accusing Biden of being too soft on environmental craziness issues, and Biden fell right into line. He put out a statement that he was as extreme on environment as anyone.

America does not want extreme.

Biden has to play to the DNC base in order to get the nomination. That means he has to go extreme, and his record of moderation is a prime target for attack by the likes of Bernie, Warren, O'Rourke, etc. When he does that, he will effectively alienate the majority of Independents, and let's be honest: Independents will decide this election like they do every election. So he's got a huge problem there... if he manages to get the nomination, he alienates those he needs to win the office. If he doesn't alienate the Independents, he won't get the nomination. That's what happened with Hillary: she took the nomination from Bernie, but by doing so she angered the Bernie supporters that could have given her the win.

Let's say, though, Biden gets the nod and is the DNC candidate. He'll likely pick Kamala Harris as his running mate. That's going to further alienate Independents, because Harris is extreme. Without a woman running mate, however, he'll lose his base.

In a debate between Trump and Biden, Trump wins if he just shows up for 60 seconds on a TV screen in the back. Trump is energized, dynamic, down-to-earth, and personable. Biden is quiet, unassuming, with weird mannerisms and has an elitist aura. Trump will also have an advantage he did not have in 2016: he has all the facts and figures at his disposal now and he knows the office. He is no longer inexperienced.

Now add in decades of political decisions which may or may not play well for Biden today... the long, long history of creepiness surrounding Biden (which he just openly acknowledged), the Ukraine business with his son, and the fact that he was in office during the worst recession in history (some still say another depression) while Trump was in office during an exceptionally fast-growing economy. Consider that, as a Democrat, Biden will be seen by some as complicit in every cockamamie notion that AOC and Omar can concoct... it's going to be a disaster for the DNC. In the other corner is a brash, egotistical business tycoon who makes wild statements... but who has been consistent, has improved Americans' lives, and has the unique distinction of keeping his promises once in office.

Is Trump beatable? Certainly! but it will take someone with similar charisma, similar ability to entertain and turn out the masses, and a record of keeping promises. I see no one in the 23 DNC candidates that can touch those requirements.

Oh, and if someone really wants to enjoy some entertainment... the differences between Pence and Harris in the Vice President debate(s) will be epic! Pence is strong, sure, confident, and grounded, projecting an aura of strength. Harris is wild, loud, boisterous, and goes off half-cocked, projecting an aura of... dare I say?... insanity.

TheRedneck

originally posted by: Willtell
a reply to: Zanti Misfit

You don’t see the point hat the election comes down to 4 swing states.


All the candidates have to do is go to those 4 or 5 states.

I'm starting to see why you have such an issue with this.

If it comes down to just those 5 states then that's effectively making the ec void.

Think about it, if the ec is gone the potus race will be decided by four states every time and the majority of us understand the problem with that.

This is a similar enough situation that we should be talking about it. Thanks for the info willtell.
But how do we get the media to talk about it??

a reply to: TheRedneck

Trump and the Republicans have made one glaring mistake unfortunately. They fell into a trap that may cost them the election.

The dems pushed extreme pro-abortion legislation knowing full well with the current surpreme court none of it could or would stick. Which resulted in the reps countering with extreme anti-abortion legislation that with the current surpreme court has a larger than normal chance of overturning or skirting around Roe vs Wade. Combined with Trumps pro-life stance and standing by it. Like it or not most of the US is pro choice. Not for extremes but overall pro choice and this will wake them up and have them voting out of fear to the point it may cost the election.

I'm neither pro-choice or life I'm pro what's reasonable and balanced which puts me at odds with both extremes. However the Republicans if they are really going to stand behind extreme pro-life like they are need something that can counter the damage. Maybe promissing the legalization of marijuana or something. No idea what can counter this.

It's a bigger deal than people realize. I've always tried to calm people down from being one issue voter's by saying there's no chance Roe vs Wade would be overturned or under threat and it was just used as political bait. That may still be true, I'm not sure how strongly they truly want to push it, but for the first time that threat is there enough that I can say, "you know what, I'm not sure." This is very bad, yes it will motivate those who are pro-life, but fear is a greater motivator and more are pro-choice.

There are people I know that have been turned out of fear from this one thing already. People who've been on the fence and beginning to turn from the corrupt democratic party are falling back in line out of fear by this one issue.

This election went from a lock to entirely uncertain the second Roe vs. Wade came under serious threat. The Republican should have stuck with fighting and pointing out how disgusting the lefts extreme legislation was rather than countering with some of their own and putting down a real threat.

I'm anti-extreme, and the situation in Ohio, which is where I live, has me seriously questioning things on this issue myself. I lean pro-life over pro-choice but things are going too far. I was considering actually voting Trump this time, now I'm not so sure. This is a serious issue.

a reply to: Puppylove

This is somewhat true. But the southern states and northern states have been playing crazytown with abortion for a while. When kavanaugh was confirmed it got ramped up and led into the midterms where crazytown approaches win media attention.

If we want to change abortion in the us it has been proven access to free birth control drastically reduces abortion. It also comes from philosophical conversations about the meaning of life.

It doesn't come from laws. The law should be when the being is conscious we should discuss the moral implications of killing a conscious being.

The culture wars are a great way to avoid talking about the future. The only guy who has a clue about the future is andrew yang. I don't agree or call him a great presidential candidate but he is at least discussing the actual future. Wtf are we going to do in the next 15 years when you can start designing traits in babies? Should we perhaps start the debate before only rich people have access to making kids geniuses?

Or do we need to talk about abortion every election cycle? Gun laws? What else?

How about what privacy means in the new age? Who has access to information? What do we do about AI and AGI? Is it fair to use algorithms to play the stock market and also have access to advertising propaganda??

a reply to: Puppylove

It is a serious issue, and you are correct in that most Americans do not see the issue as black or white, but a shade of grey. The new anti-abortion legislation is necessary to get the cases to the Supreme Court, however, to stop the extreme pro-abortion stances taken by other states.

With any other issue, at any other time, the whole thing could be hashed out in Congress, which is supposed to be representative of the people. Not with Roe vs. Wade. That 'law' was instituted by 9 people who were never elected to any office. Worse, by stating that there is a right to abortion, the Supreme Court effectively overrode both other branches of government without any possibility of checks and balances on their power.

The abortion debate goes far beyond just abortion. If Roe vs. Wade is allowed to stand, the next law could be a prohibition on states making smoking restrictions... it could be a decision that everyone in the US must receive vaccinations without question. It could be a declaration that states cannot prohibit rape! There is no check and no balance to such an action.

Yes, they are extreme examples... but they all fall under the same category: nine people who were never elected to office made a law where none exited before and barred the Congress or the President from challenging it.

Now to the election: Not a single person running for national office, including Trump, has had any impact on any of the new anti-abortion laws. I know the media would like to conflate Trump with Alabama's law, but the simple fact is that Trump does not tell Alabama what to do. State law is not the business of the Executive Branch; only the courts have the ability to interfere there. So while it might be a big issue for the DNC, it is not a national issue... merely a fear inducer to call out the masses. Considering it is a year and a half before the election and the news cycle rarely holds a topic for more than a month, the abortion fight will be long forgotten by the time 2020 rolls around.

TheRedneck

a reply to: TheRedneck

If you don't think abortion is used as propaganda by the parties you are ill effected by your bias.

The lawmakers may not be in charge of the laws per say (they would have if they stopped kicking the can to the supreme court every time there is a tough debate to be had) but they sure exploit it to rally the base. Which makes them complicit.

a reply to: TheRedneck

It is a national issue because Trump admits being strongly pro-life and this legislation is being made by pro-life republicans and as such is what people are looking being a possible outcome with things going forward. Right or wrong that is the perception.

originally posted by: Willtell
a reply to: Zanti Misfit

You don’t see the point hat the election comes down to 4 swing states.


All the candidates have to do is go to those 4 or 5 states.

I think you are correct about the importance of those 5 states, but you also have to include the flyover states that helped push Trump over the edge. He has been campaigning his entire presidency, and visiting these placed drawing large crowds of supporters.

As a guy who would like to see 4 more years of Trump, I sincerely hope the democratic hopeful takes you advice and only concentrates on these states. it would be a monumental screw up and likely lock a win for Trump, even without mentioning the left's platform, which seems to be, higher taxes, open borders, legalized murder, and investigating anyone whom you don't like.

But good luck with your political hopes and dreams. Everyone should have hope.

a reply to: luthier

If you don't think abortion is used as propaganda by the parties you are ill effected by your bias.

Oh, it is certainly used as propaganda!

However, again, 18 months before the election is not exactly the optimal time to expect propaganda to affect the election. Just as people are easily swayed by propaganda, to the exclusion of reason, they are also well-known for having short memories. Today, Trump is the sole cause of all women's deaths due to pregnancy; in 18 months, he could be seen as a savior to women (possible not likely). We'll just have to see what the news cycle does.



a reply to: Puppylove

It is a national issue because Trump admits being strongly pro-life and this legislation is being made by pro-life republicans and as such is what people are looking being a possible outcome with things going forward. Right or wrong that is the perception.

Read my reply to luthier.

The thing is, what can Trump do to outlaw abortion? Nothing; Donald Trump does not make law. What can Donald Trump do to make all abortions legal on demand? Again, nothing; Donald Trump does not make law. The same goes for Biden (or any of the 2020 DNC hopefuls). All the President can do is appoint Justices... and those Justices are supposed to be able to make decisions based on the Constitution and Federal law instead of politics. The next likely vacancy will probably be Ginsberg, a staunch liberal. So even if Biden were elected and Ginsberg retired, it would not change the makeup of the court.

Now, I know that's not the perception... but the GOP has 18 months to change that perception. The cases will likely be resolved before the election, and don't be surprised if Kavanaugh comes back with an unexpected decision. The job of the Supreme Court is not to dictate right and wrong, but to dictate what the Constitution and the Congress says is legal or illegal.

TheRedneck

As detrimental as the Abortion issue is to trumps reelection; people vote with their wallets.

If trump can maintain an economy with disposable income for the middle class, he will be elected in 20, otherwise the corpratracracy will take him down.

War...does America want another war...idk.

originally posted by: scraedtosleep

originally posted by: Willtell
a reply to: Zanti Misfit

You don’t see the point hat the election comes down to 4 swing states.


All the candidates have to do is go to those 4 or 5 states.

I'm starting to see why you have such an issue with this.

If it comes down to just those 5 states then that's effectively making the ec void.

Think about it, if the ec is gone the potus race will be decided by four states every time and the majority of us understand the problem with that.

This is a similar enough situation that we should be talking about it. Thanks for the info willtell.
But how do we get the media to talk about it??

I am. Curious how the National Interstate popular vote pact will play out for the 2020 election. If the Nevada bill is signed, 16 states and DC will have pledged to give their electoral votes to the national popular vote winner.

Currently, these states have in the past been democratic strongholds. Yet, if Democrats only pander to 4-5 states and simply assume these others are in the bag, they may be in a world of surprise if Trump actually takes the national popularity even if just by just a few votes.

It just seems every time the Dems try to get cocky and sway things their way, it comes back to trip them up instead in the future.