It looks like you're using an Ad Blocker.
Please white-list or disable AboveTopSecret.com in your ad-blocking tool.
Thank you.
Some features of ATS will be disabled while you continue to use an ad-blocker.
originally posted by: XXXN3O
originally posted by: EvilAxis
originally posted by: XXXN3O
Despite statistics and facts being that air travel is one of the safest forms and on top of that, being involved in an incident means you are even more unlikely to be involved ever again within a lifetime is almost completely invisible to the conscious mind due to the trauma being reinforeced and fed to you by the sub-conscious/unconscious.
Interesting thread, but your above statement contains a common factual misconception: being involved in an air incident does not in any way affect your future likelihood of being involved in another such incident. Read up on the Gambler's/ Monte Carlo fallacy if you cannot understand why this is.
You see the issue here is that you are attacking a programming/message which is intended to provide an extreme opposite to help a person.
originally posted by: EvilAxis
originally posted by: XXXN3O
originally posted by: EvilAxis
originally posted by: XXXN3O
Despite statistics and facts being that air travel is one of the safest forms and on top of that, being involved in an incident means you are even more unlikely to be involved ever again within a lifetime is almost completely invisible to the conscious mind due to the trauma being reinforeced and fed to you by the sub-conscious/unconscious.
Interesting thread, but your above statement contains a common factual misconception: being involved in an air incident does not in any way affect your future likelihood of being involved in another such incident. Read up on the Gambler's/ Monte Carlo fallacy if you cannot understand why this is.
You see the issue here is that you are attacking a programming/message which is intended to provide an extreme opposite to help a person.
No, I wasn't attacking a programming message - but pointing out that your statement, "being involved in an incident means you are even more unlikely to be involved ever again" is factually incorrect.
As you say, if an unlikely but frightening event occurs, we may behave as if it's bound to happen again. We become hyper-vigilant even though we would prefer to follow the rational dictates of our mind, which knows the event is as unlikely as it always was. The fear triggered is so intense that a survival-adapted aversion has kicked in which is unhelpful in this context.
But to try to counter this tendency with an irrational precept - namely, that the event is now less probable because it has already occurred - could be equally unhelpful, as it engenders irrational behaviour in the other direction.
The object is to perceive reality as it is. Just as ill-founded fears and neurosis can be crippling, mistaken models of causality (such as the Gambler's Fallacy) can, and do, lead to disastrous errors of judgement.
originally posted by: HarbingerOfShadows
a reply to: XXXN3O
And your response had nothing to do with whatcI said.
Why can you not take criticism?
My response had nothing to do with what you said because you failed to respond to anything I said.
I am yet to see something from you that indicates a fallacy.
My motive here is to try and possibly identify why the mind makes mistakes or how to prevent it from doing so, alongside other possibilties.
You are discussing terminology and branching off in another direction. Not even on the same page here at the moment, which is perfectly fine, create a new thread for it and can discuss it there.