Brazil's presidential election this month is critical for the fate of Venezuela

The economic and geopolitical war between East and West is still being ramped up by the Trump administration , and the co-operation organisation of the West is still trying hard to counter the self-strengthening strategies which the BRICASTI alliance (read SCO) nations have employed.

One obvious factor to clarify , and the foundation of this thread , is that although the SCO covers mainly the Eastern bloc , (the Eastern Eurasian landmass) it has the useful allies of both Venezuela , and Brazil , in South America .

Two fronts which Trump chose to speak strongly on, talking about the" need for regime change" during the recent UN summit speech , were Venezuela , and Iran . But he didnt mention Brazil , the larger sister next door , forming the' B' of BRICASTI of course, is also a critical mass for Trump and the C/O to counter :
a potential friction point in East/West relations . And an election is being held there for government .

While we've heard rhetoric and ruminations and promises of actions from Trump about Venezuela , and we've heard he's putting further deeper sanctions on Iran , what is going on currently in Brazil ?

Here's an article from today in the New York Times .link The presidential election is taking place in Brazil, and a right wing authoritarian called Bolsonaro is' looking like' a threatening contender to the old socialist regime which has failed to deal with Brazilian discontent . That's the regime which has affiliated itself in many ways with the SCO/Eastern alliance . Its looking like Bolsonaro has a chance , and that he is backed by the West

RIO DE JANEIRO — An ultra-right-wing populist is poised to assume the presidency of the world’s fourth-largest democracy. Jair Bolsonaro, a former army captain, won more than 46 percent of the vote during the first round of Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday. He will face the runner-up, Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party in a runoff on Oct. 28. Mr. Haddad secured just 27 percent of the vote. Even if all other leftist and centrist candidates endorse him, he will struggle to stop Mr. Bolsonaro’s ascent.

The decisive question will be whether Brazilians fear Mr. Bolsonaro’s anti-democratic message more than they hate the Workers Party. While it is difficult to predict what comes next, one thing is certain: Brazilians are facing the most important struggle of their generation.

Questions are raised - is this incoming challenger Bolsonaro likely backed with Western intent ? He swears the Brazil will be christian not secular country , A Catholic , of course , and what goes with that . Russia nor China are any friends of the Pope , but the West are .

Do the Eastern allies of Brazil and its current controllers hold the means to stave off this democratic challenge ?
( He himself forsees the possibilty of being denied when he expects to win , by vowing he will not accept that result if it comes) . It's likely .

Does Trump or the West imagine that Venezuela is a winnable military excursion , or are they just pronouncing threatening words and falsely decrying their socialist leader Madduro as part of a standoff in words alone? Because the Venezuelans have been promised multilateral support , from all their Bricasti allies of course , but they've been shown only downlooking and suspicion by the West .

A key question , are the Venezuelans , or indeed the Brazilians, already host to an arsenal installed in their countries , similar to the Cuban missile crisis ? Or is it more about the resources , read link below ,while the two competing co-operation organisations seem both to be fixed in their intent . Trump has solidified the American position to somewhere where he can effectively still say 'America first' to the international audience . In Venezuelas' case he needs regime change in Brazil , or for Brazil to change sides , which could happen this month . Meanwhile the multipolarist East are already dug in there too, so it's unlikely this challenging candidate will win , and without Brazil's support or non-intervention then Trump cannot invade or militarily threaten Venezuela (which performs the function of countering the sco on the world stage) except from Colombia
The backdrop to current South American affairs includes these kinds of plays from Trump
The sanctions and attack on Iran , the criticisms and tariffs on China , the posturing military games at the Russian border , the near escalations in Syria , the dumping of UN restraints like the International Criminal Court .

So today , here's the situation from Venezuela-analysis.com
venezuelanalysis.com...

The persistent insistence of US President Donald Trump at the General Assembly of the United Nations when he stated that "all options are on the table" to solve the crisis in Venezuela has aroused alarm in political circles in Washington and throughout Latin America regarding potential US military action or, more probably, [action carried out] using Colombian or Brazilian troops.

Alarms were turned on after [Colombian] Senator Iván Cepeda Castro warned of the rising military tension between Colombia and Venezuela. "The danger of war with Venezuela grows: the budget for anti-aircraft weapons, first-degree military cantonment, arrogant statements by US officials about ‘defending Colombia’ were meekly accepted by our government. We will have to mobilize against the war lunatics,” he said.

Meanwhile, very well equipped Brazilian troops are parked in Roraima, the border state with Venezuela, waiting for an order to attack. [Brazilian] presidential elections and military involvement in them delay any decision on the matter, analyst Joaquim Fernandes says.

US bases in Colombia, Central America and the Caribbean, are still on a state of alert. A question continues to gnaw analysts: what would happen the day after a hypothetical invasion? Who will rule the country? What will be the political cost that the US and its accomplices must pay? The opposition has failed, in 20 years, to present itself as an option for power, nor has it had a project which amounts to more than removing Nicolas Maduro's government, as before they tried to do with Hugo Chavez.

In any case, the USA, Canada, the European Union, and South American countries aligned to Washington in the Lima Group have intensified diplomatic, media and economic pressure (limited credit, preventing financial transactions) on Maduro and Venezuela, but many of them are still waiting for the rebirth of gunship or military coup diplomacy backed by the United States.

In conclusion , although there's a lot more that could be explained better , Brazil's election this month is a crucial decider in the fate of Veneuela going forward . Brazil's troops stand ready to invade in support of Eastern interests in Venezuela , not least of which are the additional vast resources there , and unless the government of Brazil significantly changes( with democratic support )in the upcoming election that will remain the case . Meanwhile , Washington aligned South American countries such as Colombia , stand against the current governance of Venezuela , and Colombia itself must stand ready to invade with US backing should a suitable opportunity become available .

That was a great post until it wasn’t . If you think Trump is going to use military action or proxy military action to overthrow the Venezuelan government .

You should really reconsider your stance.

Nobody needs to invade Venezuela, all that is needed is to wait and it will self-destruct .

“ all options are on the table “ is just a intimidation tactic.

In the unlikely chance that Brazil moves it will be unilaterally .

I would love to see Bolsonaro Win.

a reply to: Fallingdown

I don't take a stance . That's why the question was put about whether it's more about the resources of Venezuela or is it about a strategic stronghold . Most likely both , although I take your point that Trump's West bringing about political meltdown would/ might spoil the advantages those countries have to offer the Eastern bloc . Also you raise a good point in that the crisis in Venezuela is ' apparently ' real , and if breakdown occurs there we might forsee a race between Brazilian (SCO) and Colombian (Western CO) forces to 're-stabilize' the country

a reply to: DoctorBluechip

I can agree you with that completely it would be about resources and strategic positioning .

There’s only one thing for sure and that is it’s not about the humanitarian crisis.

a reply to: DoctorBluechip

a better viable option is for the US to handle Venezuelan and Brazilian government affairs is the same way those countries treat American affairs.... not interfering

I know it sounds kwayeeezee

a reply to: odzeandennz

That may be an easier option for the West but it's not a viable one , you can understand them wanting to gain a handle on Brazil and Venezuela , but it won't be a walkover in either case

originally posted by: Fallingdown

I would love to see Bolsonaro Win.

Sure, who wouldn't want a president that uses the same motto as Nazi Germany and has openly stated that he keeps "Mein Kampf" on his nightstand? He also openly stated that he accepted bribes and then proceeded to launder that money using his political party as a cover. Or maybe it's the fact he used brazilian tax payers money to buy an apartment to have sexual encounters with his mistresses... Yeah... who wouldn't want him to win?! /smh

originally posted by: bladebosq

originally posted by: Fallingdown

I would love to see Bolsonaro Win.

Sure, who wouldn't want a president that uses the same motto as Nazi Germany and has openly stated that he keeps "Mein Kampf" on his nightstand? He also openly stated that he accepted bribes and then proceeded to launder that money using his political party as a cover. Or maybe it's the fact he used brazilian tax payers money to buy an apartment to have sexual encounters with his mistresses... Yeah... who wouldn't want him to win?! /smh

Wow that sounds a lot like the allegations against Trump. You wouldn’t be a liberal would you ?

originally posted by: Fallingdown
Wow that sounds a lot like the allegations against Trump. You wouldn’t be a liberal would you ?

No allegations here... Just facts, unfortunately...

His campaign motto is "Brasil acima de tudo, Deus acima de todos" which translates to "Brazil above everything, God above everybody". "Deutschland über alles" ring a bell?
www.revistaforum.com.br...

He admitted on a live radio show to accepting bribes and laundering money.
www1.folha.uol.com.br...

He also admitted using tax payers money to buy apartments all over Brazil.
www1.folha.uol.com.br...

He is a Racist that stated that his sons have been well educated so to not date a black person.
oglobo.globo.com... ucados-2804755

He also denied on live TV that Portugal was responsible for enslaving the millions of black people brought here from Africa.
www1.folha.uol.com.br...

He is homphobic... He said on TV that "people become gay because their parents don't hit them enough" and that he would prefer a dead son to a gay son.
catracalivre.com.br...

He incited his voters to kill members of the opposing political party (PT).
costanorte.com.br...

And that's just off the top of my head....

This is certainly not presidential material.

People prefering this man to be president just goes to show that deep down most of the Brazilian people have no problem with Racism, Homophobia, Prejudice, Violence and all of the gargabe that this man represents. Recent polls show that 58% would vote for him...

When having to choose between a corrupt leftist government and a corrupt fascist government, I choose the former...