Possible Hurricane to hit Lousiana this week

We have a strong tropical wave approaching Florida that will almost certainly become a tropical storm when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico. When in the gulf the enviromental conditions plus very warm water will give the system a atrong chance of intensifying rapidly.

The good news is it will move fast enough to limit the time over water, however interests in Louisiana, Mississippi need to watch this closely as there will not be much time to make preparations if this rapidly intensifies.

The computer models are in good agreement of a landfall in Lousiana Wednesday. Intensity is always a wild card with these kind of storms.

Right now it is just a tropical wave but could become tropical storm Gordon by tomorrow night.

The National Hurricane Center provides up to date information:
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Computer models:
www.tropicaltidbits.com...

a reply to: jrod

I'm thinking it may head for SE Texas instead, and I have reasons for this belief.

Several times recently clear, blue Caribbean has ended up at the Bolivar Peninsula this summer- which is extremely unusual. This leads me to opine that if a tropical storm or hurricane hits the Gulf it may take the same path. The currents leading to the Gulf of Mexico have strange cycles and storms tend to follow the prevailing paths each season.

My relatives down there stay prepared at all times so not really worried, just watching.

a reply to: GeauxHomeYoureDrunk

We could use the rain but not the wind.

a reply to: howtonhawky

We could use some rain. Harvey brought rain last year.

originally posted by: howtonhawky
a reply to: GeauxHomeYoureDrunk

We could use the rain but not the wind.

My sister lives on the beach so I'm hoping for neither. The rest of the family is about 25-30 miles inland as the crow flies and are still recovering from the floods that Harvey brought a year ago. My home town got over 56 inches of rain from that one!

Until it hits its at best a theory, My dad told me of a hurricane that they swore up and down was going to hit tampa and clearwater (he lived in clearwater at the time) the eye came right up to tampa bay and then it did a u turn and went back into the gulf.

Just be ready and if it gets close and you are in a flood prone area go visit family further in land.

a reply to: GeauxHomeYoureDrunk

Yea i grew up on 87. I missed harvey but was there for rita.

I agree that i believe it may be headed that way.

www.windy.com...

The National Hurricane Center will have an update at 2pm EDT. They also have scheduled recon flights.

The system is looking more healthy by the hour, if this trend continues we have a depression by tonight.

The latest from the NHC:

Thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located
between north-central Cuba and the central Bahamas is gradually
becoming better organized, and upper-level winds are also becoming
more favorable. A tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward across the
northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys. The
system is forecast to emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by
early Tuesday and move toward the north-central Gulf Coast Tuesday
night and Wednesday. This system will produce locally heavy rains
and gusty winds across the central and northwestern Bahamas,
southern Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or two. A
tropical storm watch could be issued for portions of the northern
Gulf Coast tonight. Interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of this system. For more information, see products from
your local weather forecast office and High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The National Hurricane Center looks like they want to give as much warning as possible for the northern gulf.

This is something to watch. With the recon flights and direct observations tomorrow, we will have a much better idea of where this is going and how strong it could get.

a reply to: jrod

dont know about your model but i had a look at windy.com it doesn't show anything there but on the other hand predicts two hurricanes next week that are heading towards the east coast

a reply to: Dr UAE

I was looking at the GFS and European models. Also going off expert opinions in a weather forum I follow as well as the NHC.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...



I have never used the windy.com site so Inhave no idea about the credibility. I do have credible computer models and sources for my 'forecast'.

a reply to: jrod

i always relay on ECMWF, maybe because it was almost all the times correct, but then again who knows

a reply to: jrod

Windy does not forecast much. Excellent for what's happening now though. Fed from noaa. Was posted on ats by another member.

You just gotta learn to use the filters on the right side of their screen.

a reply to: Dr UAE

I checked out windy.com, it shows a closed low(a tropical storm) coming ashore in New Orleans. With the developments today it is not initialized well.

It is a similar to windfinder.com, while it is user friendly and easy to understand, they lack accuracy.

The ECMWF(european) is showing it making landfall at Louisiana as a weak system. Again it is not initialized well because the disturbance is much stronger today than was expected.

It is important to note that wind shear has relaxed over the system, this was not expected until it made it to the gulf.

We are currently getting a tropical wave that is dumping pretty good rain. They are considering a flash flood watch if it hasn't already been issued. I am west of Houston. There are several models putting it in at LA and some having it follow the track of the current wave which is right into Houston or Galveston. Still too early to tell but we did prep the generator today just in case.

You never know what the storms will do. Ike was supposed to be a direct hit but bobbled just before landfall which changed the rain area and the storm path and took out Bolivar. While we are at least 60-70 miles from the coast and west, we still had significant damage in our area and were without power for over a week.

Rita changed at the last minute as well and caught the Sabine River area and east Texas off guard. My in-laws were without power for several weeks from that one. And the evacuation was a disaster in itself.

Just be prepared because you never know.

The NHC will start issueing official advisories on this system at 5pm EDT as potential tropical cyclone(PTC) 7. It will be interesting to see if they put up tropical storm warnings for South Florida

We live in mid state of Texas and this coming weeks weather looks great. Lots of rain and 10 deg cooler temps. Now I'll need to mow again.

The advisory is out. Tropical Storm watches for the northern gulf. No watches or warnings for South Florida. The official forecast is for 60mph at land fall, however I do think there is potential for rapid intensification and a landfalling hurricane is still possible.

From the NHC:

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 02 2018

The area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave that
the NHC has been tracking for the past few days has become better
organized today. Strong winds previously associated with an upper-
level trough just west of the system have decreased significantly
during the day, and the upper-level flow across the disturbance has
become more anticyclonic. Earlier scatterometer wind data indicated
that the system does not yet have a closed surface circulation.
However, the same data indicate that winds of 25-28 kt exist outside
of thunderstorm activity, with some higher gusts likely present.
The initial intensity is being set at a conservative 25 kt for this
advisory.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 300/13 kt. The global
models are in excellent agreement that the strong subtropical ridge
to the north of the disturbance will remain entrenched across the
southeastern U.S. and mid-Atlantic states throughout the forecast
period. This flow pattern should keep the system moving in a west-
northwestward to northwestward motion until landfall occurs along
the central Gulf coast in 60-72 hours. The model tracks are tightly
packed, so the NHC official forecast track essentially lies down the
middle of the guidance envelope. On the forecast track, the system
is expected to move across the Florida Keys Monday afternoon, and
reach the central Gulf Coast by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.

The aforementioned upper-level anticyclonic has been steadily
increasing during the day today, with weak cirrus outflow now
occurring in all quadrants. The disturbance is forecast to move
across the very warm waters of the Gulfstream late tonight and early
Monday morning where local diabatic heating should enhance deep
convection near the mid-level circulation, causing the vortex column
to build downward to the surface. Once a closed surface circulation
develops, the combination of low to modest vertical shear and SSTs
of at least 30C along the track should allow for at least slow but
steady strengthening. Although the official intensity forecast shows
weakening at 72 hours, this is due to the system expected to be
inland at that time. Conditions will favorable for continued
strengthening after the 48-h period until landfall occurs, and a
peak intensity of around 55 kt around 60 hours is possible. The
SHIPS and LGEM models were the only intensity guidance available for
this package, and the official forecast is just a little below an
average of those models. The HWRF and HMON models will be
forthcoming for the next advisory package, so some adjustments to
this first intensity forecast may be required as more guidance
becomes available.

Key Messages:

1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will bring heavy rainfall and
gusty winds to portions of the Bahamas, South Florida, and the
Florida Keys tonight and Monday, and interests in those areas should
monitor the progress of this system.

2. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the
central Gulf Coast, and tropical storm conditions are possible in
those areas Tuesday night and Wednesday. Heavy rainfall from this
system will affect portions of the central Gulf Coast later this
week, including areas that are currently receiving heavy rainfall
from a different weather system. Interests in these areas should
monitor products from their local National Weather Service office.

3. Users should be aware that forecast uncertainty for potential
tropical cylones is generally larger than that for tropical
cyclones, especially beyond 48-72 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 22.7N 77.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 03/0600Z 23.7N 79.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H 03/1800Z 25.1N 81.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 26.6N 84.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 28.0N 87.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 30.6N 91.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/1800Z 33.0N 94.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 07/1800Z 34.0N 95.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

a reply to: jrod

Cayo Hueso? Key West?Storms are yearly...gotta deal.,

originally posted by: howtonhawky
a reply to: GeauxHomeYoureDrunk

We could use the rain but not the wind.

Yeah the wind really blows