AP FACT CHECK: Trump’s bottom-line stats on trade are wrong

Well, here is the third weekly fact check from Associated Press that I've posted. Once again, I am asking all the members to offer assistance and help us debunk any of these fact checks -- again there are eight. So far, in these two threads, none of us have been able to find any facts and present them in the thread to contradict AP's fact checks. I don't think people were really trying though, it was a lot of opinions and trying to take AP down instead of focusing on the 8 fact checks.

I am hoping we can all get together and do some digging for this one and the future ones. AP themselves would like to know if anything is wrong and they will correct it; if we can confirm something is wrong and have proof of it, we can email them.

Getting the facts right has been core to AP’s mission since our founding in 1846. When a public figure says something questionable, it is our job to investigate it and offer the facts. You’ll find some of those stories below.

In addition, when a false story gains traction online, we create a separate fact-checking item that tells the true story. This is where you’ll find those stories and our weekly roundup of untrue headlines that have been shared widely on social media.

Want to reach out with a comment or fact-checking suggestion? Do you see something that needs a correction? Email us at [email protected].

So far, they are 16 out of 16 for the past couple of weeks here on ATS. Can we debunk any of their fact checks or will this week end in 24/24?



On our trade deficit being $817b for the last year:

THE FACTS: Trump’s bottom-line number in his dispute with trading partners is wrong. The U.S. ran a trade deficit last year of $568.4 billion, says his administration’s Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis, not $817 billion. Trump refers only to the deficit in goods. Last year, the U.S. bought $811 billion more in goods from other countries than other countries bought from the U.S. But the U.S. had a surplus in trade in services, which brought the actual trade deficit down.

President Donald Trump delivered a stern warning on trade to foreign countries at the Group of Seven summit on Saturday, urging trading partners not to retaliate against U.S. tariffs on the imports of steel and aluminum. (June 9)

He made a similar error in a tweet Thursday, saying “The EU trade surplus with the U.S. is $151 Billion.” It was $101 billion.

On having the greatest economy and lowest unemployment ever:

THE FACTS: May’s unemployment rate of 3.8 percent is not the best ever. And the economy has seen many periods of stronger growth.

The lowest unemployment rate since World War II was reached in 1953, when it averaged 2.9 percent, almost a full point lower than today. The job market is certainly strong, with unemployment at an 18-year low, and if it drops another tenth of a point, it’ll be the lowest since 1969.

In the 1990s boom, still the longest on record, the U.S. economy expanded at an average annual pace of 4.3 percent for five years, from 1996 through 2000. In the 1980s, growth averaged 4.6 percent annually from 1983 through 1987. While the economy has picked up from 2016, its best showing since Trump took office was 3.2 percent in last year’s third quarter.

On blaming past administrations and laws for separating families and children:

THE FACTS: No law mandates that parents must be separated from their children at the border, and it’s not a policy Democrats have pushed or can change alone as the minority in Congress. Children are probably being separated from the parents at the border at an accelerated rate because of a new “zero tolerance policy” being put in place by Trump’s own administration. Announced April 6 by Attorney General Jeff Sessions, the policy directs authorities to prosecute all instances of illegal border crossings, even against people with few or no previous offenses.

Administration officials are quick to note that Sessions’ policy makes no mention of separating families. That is correct. But under U.S. protocol, if parents are jailed, their children are separated from them because the children aren’t charged with a crime.

So while separating families might not be official U.S. policy, it is a direct consequence of Sessions’ zero-tolerance approach.

On the Coast Guard saving 16,000 people during the hurricane:

THE FACTS: There is no indication the Coast Guard was busy saving the lives of foolhardy hurricane gawkers drifting off the Texas coast. Texas officials are baffled at Trump’s words and the Coast Guard does not back them up. Some of the most powerful images from Hurricane Harvey were of flooded Houston streets swarming with volunteer boaters who answered the call of overwhelmed first responders and used their personal watercraft to rescue families from their homes.

Coast Guard Petty Officer Edward Wargo of Houston said the service didn’t take note of how or why people got stranded during Harvey, but said most rescues appeared to occur within city limits and neighborhoods. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott said he had “no information one way or the other” about Trump’s claim that people were on the water to watch Harvey. But the outgoing speaker of the Texas House, Republican Joe Straus, rejected the idea.

More inside on trade and tariffs, veterans and the VA bills.

Associated Press

Thanks for reading as always and thanks for help fact checking the fact checkers!

a reply to: Kharron

Apples to apples I bet the trade in services deficit is much higher but it's very hard to measure. You cannot say (as a geberal but not accurate example) that we lost 250 million to India in software development services last month because given the average remuneration for that role we lost 10x that plus lost benefits and lost tax revenue that will be thrown on the backs of other tax payers. Let's get the facts. Give me the raw data. Tell me the methods used to make these calculations and I will show you where trade in services is killing us.

a reply to: drewlander

I think that would be a foolish bet since all the statistics come from our government, in particular the Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis. But since we can't really bet, I think just posting proof will do. I'm hoping you are right, I'll wait for your proof. I doubt that AP will change their mind and retract anything based on our opinions -- we need to go those government pages and verify those numbers. You volunteering?

originally posted by: Kharron
Well, here is the third weekly fact.... if we can confirm something is wrong and have proof of it, we can email them.

you won't get any proof, or fact - based rebuttals.

but you'll get plenty of arguments why trumps right and no proof is necessary.

truth is subjective when it comes to American politics.

Wow. They blame Trump for the child seperation policy in one sentence, then at the end of the paragrapgh:

U.S. protocol, if parents are jailed, their children are separated from them because the children aren’t charged with a crime.

So Trump is right. It's not his policy and past administrations had no problems with it. Trump is prosecuting people who comes across illegally. He's enforcing US immigration law. That's it.

a reply to: Kharron

That’s because counter to what a lot of the people on here claim the AP is a legit news source and infowars, Fox News and true pundit are not...


You think it would be obvious since all of Fox News journalists disagree completely with their commentators and the rest don’t employ journalists at all..


They are compilation sites that copy MSM stories then propagandize them..

a reply to: Thejoncrichton

That’s because other presidents used prosecutorial discretion to choose not to prosecute those with children..

I assume just as much for the added cost/liability of dealing with children as much as the obvious political firestorm it would cause..

So yea since trump changed the policy and these are the ramifications.. obviously it is trump’s fault.

The AP didn't earn the title "The Administration's Press" for nothing during the Obama years.

www.newsbusters.org...

Stories going back years that detail their blatant left wing bias. One of their main offences is lying by omission.

originally posted by: JoshuaCox
a reply to: Thejoncrichton

So yea since trump changed the policy and these are the ramifications.. obviously it is trump’s fault.

By "changed the policy" you mean he's enforcing the law as the executive branch is supposed to and why he was elected?

That’s because other presidents used prosecutorial discretion to choose not to prosecute those with children..

So what you're saying is that past president ignored the law and their duties as the executive?

a reply to: Kharron

Did you just berate someone (passive-aggressively, of course) after they stated:

originally posted by: drewlander
a reply to: Kharron

Let's get the facts. Give me the raw data. Tell me the methods used to make these calculations and I will show you where trade in services is killing us.

Seriously, part of the problem with these "fact checkers" is that they vaguely or not-at-all discuss the raw data and methods used, or even link to it. Therefore, what they're doing is telling us that one person is wrong, but they're right, and that we should take their word for it because they're not going to provide the data to back up their numbers.

If you issue the challenge to prove these fact checkers wrong--in this case, the AP--then maybe provide us the links to the raw data or a description of the methods used in calling out things are wrong.

Otherwise, you might risk many of us who are actual fans of raw data and understanding methods used (because methods can skew numbers in favor of a bias immensely) thinking that you may not be as sincere as you're pretending on seeking the truth.

a reply to: Thejoncrichton

Any details on how their fact checking is wrong? Do you have data that contradicts their own? It doesn't count if it comes from Trump's mouth btw.

Or will you continue calling them liars without any evidence of them lying here? If you know they're lying, prove it. I have a feeling you won't be able to.

originally posted by: JoshuaCox
a reply to: Thejoncrichton

That’s because other presidents used prosecutorial discretion to choose not to prosecute those with children..

That's a pretty safe way of saying, "... other presidents ignored the law for added PR points."

I assume just as much for the added cost/liability of dealing with children as much as the obvious political firestorm it would cause..

So yea since trump changed the policy and these are the ramifications.. obviously it is trump’s fault.

I see--since Sessions (not Trump) tells his prosecutors to *gasp!* prosecute people breaking the law to the fullest extent, they're the bad guys. Heaven forbid we hold the parents who dragged their kids into America illegally responsible for their own actions. That would be silly, wouldn't it?

At least you agree with me on the not-separating-children-for-PR-points part of it. Finding common ground is always a good thing, but we can't let optics dictate when or why we openly disregard federal law enforcement.

a reply to: 3NL1GHT3N3D1

If you know that the AP is telling the truth, prove it, because the AP certainly doesn't prove it when they post these things.

ETA: I feel like I need to throw this caveat in--I'm not saying that Trump is right and the AP is wrong, I just find it high-larious when people take someone (or an organization) at their word when they are telling you that you can't take someone at their word (and then they don't prove why with any links to data).

originally posted by: 3NL1GHT3N3D1
a reply to: Thejoncrichton

Any details on how their fact checking is wrong? Do you have data that contradicts their own? It doesn't count if it comes from Trump's mouth btw.

Or will you continue calling them liars without any evidence of them lying here? If you know they're lying, prove it. I have a feeling you won't be able to.

Well I provided a link with hundreds of stories showing how the selectively "fact check" and omit facts that are damaging to democrats.

In this case they omit facts to blame Trump for separating kids from illegal border crossers, but that's simply not the facts. That's their AP twisting facts to suit their agenda. Trump has nothing to do with the Flores decision. Trump is doing his job as the executive. Feel free to prove me wrong.

Who fact checks the AP. Oh that's right, the AP fact checks themselves and they do a god awful job of it considering the number of retractions they have made recently.

Statistics can be interpreted in a variety of ways usual in favor of the entities interpreting them.

So if the Trump administration or Obama administration provides them they will back up what they need to back up, and when the AP interprets them they will disclose whatever the AP needs them to say, that's the beauty of statistics.

a reply to: SlapMonkey

Berate someone? By asking for facts and proof? That's berating someone passive aggressively?

I even stated in the OP, we need to present facts and try to debunk this. Without facts we are just debating opinions, right? So if the poster wants their opinion to be taken more seriously, those opinions need to be backed up by proof.

Is this called berating now?

To condense a few replies into one.

If someone has something against AP that they can prove, retracted fact checks or anything like that, please provide links. That is the whole point of these threads, to see if we can fact check the fact checkers. Otherwise, how do we know that opinion someone is offering here did not come from Neon Nettle or somewhere else questionable?

Fact checking CNN or FOX or MSNBC would be too easy and we know we can find many things wrong, but let's fact check those that people claim are clean. If we can debunk their stuff, then they cannot be called clean any more.

Let's get on that an provide proof, please, before this becomes a 24 out of 24. I've fact checked AP numerous times and have not find any errors in their facts. I am asking for help to see if we can do it as a team, because I make mistakes.

Thanks for your help, folks.

a reply to: SlapMonkey

SlapMonkey, your approach is all wrong.

We need to fact check them, which means we need to dig and find how they are not true. To put this linearly -- Trump made a statement, he didn't have to fact check himself, AP fact checked him, did the research and posted the differences in the facts.

Now we need to do the research and see if we can find something wrong with those AP facts. If we can then we have fact checked them and it deserves a correction.

You asking for someone else to do the work for you and prove your opinion wrong is not how fact checking works. You need to prove these statements are wrong, just like they proved with facts that the President was wrong, otherwise you're only providing an opinion.

originally posted by: JoshuaCox
a reply to: Kharron

That’s because counter to what a lot of the people on here claim the AP is a legit news source and infowars, Fox News and true pundit are not...


You think it would be obvious since all of Fox News journalists disagree completely with their commentators and the rest don’t employ journalists at all..


They are compilation sites that copy MSM stories then propagandize them..

I don't want to say they (AP) are 100% legit, I'm paranoid by nature when it comes to authority and media. However, in a sea of fake news from the left and the right, a few agencies have come out on top.

We still cannot and should not take everything they say as gospel. That why we need to be diligent and do the research ourselves. These threads are a good exercise in that. If we can go for 10 or 15 weeks with all these checks coming back clean -- it still does not mean AP is perfect, but it may mean we could get our news from them with a higher degree of confidence than from CNN or Fox. It's a start.

a reply to: Kharron

If I misread the tone of your comment, my apologies.

originally posted by: Kharron
a reply to: SlapMonkey


We need to fact check them, ...

Now we need to do the research and see if we can find something wrong with those AP facts. If we can then we have fact checked them and it deserves a correction.

See, you're approach is only partially correct. If an organization or person claims to be fact-checking someone and calls them a liar, that organization or person needs to provide the proof, not just make a claim that counters the original claim. The onus of proof of the lie lies (no pun intended) with the accuser.

AP has failed to provide such proof, therefore their claims are no more accurate than the president's, unless you just want to take their word for it.

When I research topics, I go to the source of the data--if I'm researching violent/gun crime, I quote from and link to FBI stats; if I'm arguing case law, I quote from and link to the actual court documents pertaining to the cases.

What I don't do, for the most part (unless I'm being lazy), is just counter a claim and not provide the proof as to where I got my countering claim. AP is being lazy, and that's my point.

You asking for someone else to do the work for you and prove your opinion wrong is not how fact checking works. You need to prove these statements are wrong, just like they proved with facts that the President was wrong, otherwise you're only providing an opinion.

But, here you are, asking others to do the work for you. I mean, you claim to have fact-checked AP before, but found nothing wrong with their claims. I haven't been following your requests for "us" to fact-check AP, so I don't know if you have provided the raw data that proves their claims--if not, then your claim is no more substantiated than AP's, or Trump's.

At some point, though, we can't expect one person to fact-check another fact checker who fact-checked another fact checker who fact-checked a fact-checking organization that fact-checked the president. At some point, it becomes ridiculous for you, the OP, to expect that out of people.

It is a factual point that AP provided no proof for their claims, therefore my critique of the AP's fact-checking is not opinion, it is factual.

Whether or not you think that I need to embark on the journey of proving AP wrong to appease your request is irrelevant to that reality.

Best regards--I'm not interested in bickering any further about the AP's fact-checking abilities. They may very well be 100% right in their claims, I just wish that they would prove it with links to raw data.