The element of chance

Someone long ago tried to explain this to me but really was unable to prove it, yet I have been thinking about it more. I am putting this into science because science recognizes chance, yet I don’t think we truly understand it. I also think chance, this element we call chance is the parts in life we have no control over freak accidents jet engine failures, new tires blowing out on cars causing accidents etc. Now has anyone ever heard of “There is always a 5% chance in every plan or action to interfere?” I have searched the web to no avail, to this day I have no idea who told me this but I am asking members if they have ever heard of this and also, what do you think chance is or means in this sense. Did I just retain half of the theory or explanation?

I digress and open the floor.

There was a man, I forget exactly where and when, yet I think it was an SC beach. Only person on the beach, running for his health. A plane crashed right on him. Is that fate or consequence?

a reply to: llama

I am tending to think the element of chance is a disorder in one sense or another, yet chaos by definition is chaos no order is what first comes to mind yet, it has order.
At its core. Also what comes to mind is “the best laid plans of mice and men” it’s just interesting to me how arrogant mankind can be yet we cannot even really understand our reality we exist in. No matter how hard we evolve and try to adapt, the longer we exist, we will still never stop chance..

This is about as deep as I get, I hope someone will stop by and help me understand the science of chance in science.

a reply to: Bicent

I have never heard of the 5% part.. but I do believe there is a significant "chance" of the most unexpected happening, with no real explanation. These are the most confusing situations.

I think of my big brother who passed away a year and a half ago at the young age of 35. He was a marathon-runner, who was literally the "golden child" out of 6 children... the least selfish, most giving, and thoughtful of all of the kids. He would always go to my aunt's gravestone on the anniversary of her death and put flowers, or Angel statues, or something like that every single year, and take a picture and send it to my mom (her sister), he was the only one to do this and the graveyard was not anywhere near work/home, but he always made it happen.

Long story short, the incompetent doctors ****ed up his medication and his liver/kidneys failed as a result..

Everything else aside, I can't help but ask "why". I live in his bedroom, wear his clothes, I bought his car that he left behind (which was a WHOLE ordeal with the probate court, executor of the estate, months and months of paperwork and phone calls before I could actually get the title in my name)... I can't help but ask "why" and think of how god damn unfair it is.

I have done plenty of selfish, reckless things in my life and I am still here, yet he has passed on to the next "plane" or whatever it is.. it will never, ever make sense to me (maybe when I too pass, but not while I'm here).

Hoping I see him again one day to reunite and talk to him finally, but until then I will always be a changed man because of that "chance" situation that should never have happened.

#FamCore
#MyRoleModel
#Pain
#Loss

a reply to: FamCore

I am sorry to hear that, my condolences thank you for sharing your story. I believe there is truly a science behind it, a element that exist in the universe. Again my condolences.

As they say, "the good die young".

There is what they say Sod's law which states "if something can do wrong, it will".

Then there is "Open plan office law" which states "Whenever you are about to do the most critical part of a project such as do some design or implement code, people will go out of their way to distract you".

In my last company, I was doing the implementation of a really critical bit of software. Just when I was implementing that code from memory, suddenly the person in front of my desk started eating spicy noodles. Then his manager padded up behind him and shouted in his loudest voice "That smells good!!!! What's that!!!!" Then he swans off as if nothing had happened. That completely shredded all my thoughts for the rest of day. And it was downhill from there.

I used to wonder about all the road accidents where trees fell on top of cars as they drove by. Wouldn't there be an equivalent number of cars that had a tree fall behind and in front of them?

How about this one for chance?
Posted not long ago: Video Shows Blue Angels F/A-18 Hornet Spewing Fire After Bird Strike

originally posted by: FredT
The Blue Angels suffered a potential class B mishap April 21st when the Solo #5 jet suffered a bird strike into one of its engines. The aftermath was caught on video during the Vero Beach Air Show. It shows the Hornet spewing flame in bursts from the damaged turbine. That being said the aircraft seemed to continue in level flight and the pilot was able to land the aircraft without incident.
2018 has been a rough year for military aviation

www.thedrive.com...

So much sky, yet...
What are the chances in this situation, 5%?

Chance is really just an unknowable variable. I guess we can't know everything.....

a reply to: FamCore
I'm sorry. I recently lost my kid Brother, as well.

I know this though, death happens according to a plan, a plan we have no recollection of. My Brother moved my modem twice and shut off my computer once, the morning before I was notified he had passed. He didn't die but merely shed his skin suit, so didn't your Bro. Don't worry he's still around and always will be, IMHO. Go to see a reputable medium and get a reading, your Brother will prove to you that he still exists....Good Luck. Love ya, man.

Exactly, this kind or stuff I am trying to understand more of. So if we can see chance in reality and understand it exists how does physics perceive chance? Or more specifically astrophysics or just physics.

a reply to: Bicent
Theory / guess work ?

a reply to: donktheclown


Ya I think your right. Chance is the wild card I guess but it’s there it has to do with position and time. Anyhow I digress for the night. Thanks for all the stories folks.

originally posted by: llama
There was a man, I forget exactly where and when, yet I think it was an SC beach. Only person on the beach, running for his health. A plane crashed right on him. Is that fate or consequence?

Neither. It's chance. Beyond what we can control, life is nothing but chance.

a reply to: FamCore

Touching if sad story, Famcore. Thanks for sharing it.

Dont know for sure but 5% isnt that 2 times the standard deviation in a bell-curve.

There is no such thing as chance! Only cause and effect with mathematical exactitude. If someone doesn't understand the effect then they're only ignorant of the cause...get smart and seek understanding.
a reply to: Bicent

a reply to: frenchfries


Thank you.. using your bell curve reference brought me to this your help


Just a good read, this is the kind of stuff I was trying to research. Thanks again.



random variable

a reply to: nightbringr

life is nothing but chance.

There is absolutely no chance that life
is nothing but chance. It's insanity to
even ponder it. Because we control
nothing. That's what chance tells us.

a reply to: Bicent

Is it chance, or is simply a combination of the law of probability with a dash of Murphy's law.

I'm not certain, it's an interesting conversation though...

When I saw you mention 5%, I immediately thought of the 95% confidence interval. It's used quite a bit in statistics and in generating probability curves. It's actually an arbitrary number, but if your experiments show that 95% of the time, the results are as expected, you've got a reasonably good experimental hypothesis. But still 5% of the time the results don't jive. Getting your results to fit at even higher confidence intervals is harder since there will be fewer and fewer results that don't fit.

On any bell curve there are essentially an infinite number of possible outcomes, but some are much less common as you progress out to the "flat" portions on the sides. Exceedingly rare and possibly random, but often very interesting nonetheless.