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be a "type III" civilization and would have massive structures everywhere
originally posted by: ChaoticOrder
The Drake Equation in its usual form is used to estimate the possible number of extraterrestrial civilizations in our galaxy, but I thought it might be interesting to slightly modify it in order to estimate the chances that a civilization on another planet close enough to detect our radio signals has detected our presence and decided to visit us. Apparently the first radio signal at a frequency high enough to penetrate Earth's ionosphere was the opening ceremony of the 1936 Olympics[1]. Since radio waves travel at the speed of light that means any star system without a radius of 82 light years could potentially detect our signals.
This is a nice number to use for our estimate because it's extremely unlikely that our radio signals would even be detectable amongst the background noise beyond 80 light years and because it's extremely unlikely any species further than 80 light years from us could reach us since it would take 80 years even traveling at the speed of light. In order to make the estimation we can adjust the Drake Equation to take into account only the star systems within range of our radio signals instead of the whole galaxy. The result of this calculation will hopefully provide some insight into the likelihood of ET's detecting our presence and visiting our planet.
So here is the modified equation:
N = Ns · Fp · Ne · Fl · Fi · Fc
originally posted by: ChaoticOrder
The value of Fc is going to be very small just like Fi because detecting our radio signals from such long distances is very difficult and involves a lot of luck because they have to be looking in the right place, for those at 80 light years it would be an almost impossible challenge. Also the chance they will develop technology for interstellar travel is very small since we know it's a tough problem and a warp drive is required to make it feasible at all, and we're not entirely sure such a drive can even be built. However lets be optimistic and assign Fc a value of 0.1, meaning a 10% chance any given civilization manages to reach us.
So the resulting calculation will look as follows:
N = 9240 · 0.95 · 0.25 · 0.5 · 0.01 · 0.1
N = 1.09725
originally posted by: beetee
a reply to: ChaoticOrder
I still think your work is impressive. And you demonstrate that the probability of there being other civilization-building species co-evolving with us is pretty slim, using your parameters.
I am just contributing to critique your work and suggest some other avenues for expansion.
Also there are some other things to consider. Like the definition of "intelligence" and "civilization". Just on this planet, there are a whole bunch of quite intelligent creatures. Some are even using tools, apart from us. So, the question is where to draw the line between what is intelligent enough to create a space faring "civilization?¨
At this time, here on this planet, there is just one species, us, who have proven capable of this. But if you had looked at us a mere 500 000 years ago, you would probably not have guessed we would be the species to do it.
So, another parameter then that creates some uncertainty in your equation, is how many potential future space faring species are there on just this planet? We know that some species are already using tools. We know that some species have highly advanced social structures. So, in say a million years, how many other space faring races might there be?
I know this is difficult to quantify, but I still think it is interesting to consider. If, for example, in a million years there has evolved not one, but two, space faring civilizations on this planet alone, the numbers would be quite different.
I think the Drake equation has always been very tantalizing, because it shows the potential out there. And the more we seem to learn about the universe around us, the more likely it seems we are not alone. Just the recent influx of newly discovered planets has upped, as you point out, the likelihood of there being other critters out there.
It would be far stranger that we were alone in the Universe than the opposite. To quote Sagan, it would be a tremendous "waste of space".
Still like your work though. This is the kind of research I just love.
BT
While we might find it desirable to fill local space with structures (and rubbish also I'm sad to say) but that might not be the case with some civilization that is alien.
Another problem is, of course, that if it is not "our" technology, would we even recognize it as technology if we saw it?
originally posted by: 0zzymand0s
You make a good point, but I don't think we are looking for technology, per se. At least not directly. We are using infrared to look for waste heat. That seems like a pretty safe bet for any type of civilization capable of space travel.
It's inherently necessary for any civilization that large to have massive structures used to harvest energy
Also the laws of physics explicitly state it's not possible to send meaningful information using quantum entanglement
Maybe there are other kinds of energy that can, if you are a class X civilization, harvest and use and that do not produce waste heat of any kind?
Are you familiar with Evolving the Alien?
Are you familiar with Evolving the Alien?
originally posted by: beetee
I would agree that there is little to no evidence of recognizable technology to find (so far) out there, but if the Drake equation tells us they should be out there, maybe the solution to the Fermi Paradox is that we are unable to understand what we are looking at..