Since the tax cuts passed, the markets are down overall

originally posted by: Krazysh0t

originally posted by: Bluntone22

originally posted by: Krazysh0t

originally posted by: Bluntone22
I would say it's way to early to judge the effectiveness of the tax cuts.

So where is the promised 4% growth? You do know that in order to see such high growth the volatility we are experiencing now goes a long way to making it impossible right?

It has been 3 months.

Do you even have conceptual idea of what a 4% growth graph will look like?

Nice edit. I wonder why you didn't post in the mudpit

a reply to: Krazysh0t

I know that my job is to find employees for companies and I'm have a very hard time doing that because there are more jobs than people to fill them.
I know my wife works in banking and she was told in a meeting the other day that loan defaults are way down from a year ago because people are employed. Her loan totals are way up too.

I know that lots of people don't want to hear it or believe it but the trump economy is booming.

a reply to: Bluntone22

Duh! The economy is doing well. He inherited a strong economy from Obama. That's my whole point. Trump passed tax cuts when the economy wasn't broken. Haven't you ever head the expression "don't fix that which isn't broken"? Now with the passed cuts the stock market is showing volatility. It may not be visible on main street yet (and for this I am thankful), but if this continues it will only be a matter of time.

a reply to: Krazysh0t

"P.S. This isn't the Democrats fault."

Right, its just that the Democrats haven't provided any solutions either.

But, truthfully, the markets are down because of Trump's initiating a trade war with the Chinese. The tax cuts did, for a moment propel the markets higher, then he torpedoed everything with his tough talk on trade.

The markets hate uncertainty; talking trade wars and tariffs casts huge uncertainty over the markets.

And you're quite correct about the abomination of the budget bill passed by the Republicans. But understand, today's "Republican" party, i.e., the "establishment Republicans" are, in reality, more like and akin to the Democrat party of the 50's and 60's than they are "Republican". And what are today's Democrats? I can't even begin to understand who or what the Democrats stand for. The only thing I understand about the Democrats is that their moral and cultural values are entirely opposite mine.

The real horror your "America" faces is that the ultimately the size of the US debt is going to push this country into a Wiemar Republic type Depression as the nation's credit rating finally tanks. Its already the case that the size of the deficit is seriously distorting the credit and bond markets.

You can sing the praises of the Democrat party till the cows come home but the truth of the matter is that the Republicans have abandoned their base and that means that approximately 40% of the population that opposes Democrats has no political party or affiliation. You and your Democrat friends can whistle past that graveyard for only so long.

a reply to: TonyS

The only reason I specifically pointed out that this isn't the Democrats' fault is because the go to tactic to blame anything wrong with the country by Trump and his sycophantic supporters is to blame the Democrats. Case in point Trump just blamed Democrats for him destroying DACA this past week (even though HE was the one who didn't sign a bi-partisan bill Democrats and Republicans gave him giving money for his wall and protections for DACA recipients)

a reply to: TonyS

You can sing the praises of the Democrat party till the cows come home but the truth of the matter is that the Republicans have abandoned their base and that means that approximately 40% of the population that opposes Democrats has no political party or affiliation. You and your Democrat friends can whistle past that graveyard for only so long.

One of the most insightful paragraphs I have read here this year!
Well posted!

originally posted by: Krazysh0t

originally posted by: Edumakated
a reply to: Krazysh0t

Ummm... you do realize markets react to more than just one variable, right?

So tell me. What's causing the volatility if not for Trump?

Gee, where to even start....

Trade wars
FAANG tech stocks overvalued
Still too much liquidity chasing equity yields due to ZIRP
High speed trading
Lack of confidence
Profit taking

Markets react to so much information, you cannot simply say that tax cuts are responsible.

a reply to: shooterbrody

Well, thanks. But Krazy will probably rip me a new one. But.........I'm used to that. It is after all, what he does.

a reply to: Edumakated

Don't waste your time.

a reply to: Krazysh0t

"The markets" are also not synonymous with the economy... two very different things.

The tax cuts were priced into the market, but the market is already overvalued (stock buy backs and Central Bank intervention has really propped this market up)

I expect a large correction in the markets sometime in the next 8 months (but I'm not a professional market analyst either)

firing rockets on a sinking ship.
The correction over the next few years will be pretty drastic. Lowering the rate at the fed doesn't work any more- we're already at 0.
They gave it fancy names like Quantative Easing, but what they should have called it is FREE MONEY.

That's what it is. Money that doesn't cost anything.
Only catch is, it's not for you or me.
Only the banks can have it.

They borrow it, with no interest- what incentive is there to ever pay it back?
They borrow it, then lend it out with fractional reserve lending easily with an easy 10:1 return rate.

What did people thing was going to happen? There isn't any way to fix this anymore. We let it go too far. Now all we can do is try and keep inflation slow enough that raises can keep up with it- even though the flow of money downward is being prevented as much as possible at every step to ensure the rich get richer while the rest of us starve.
Meanwhile, since the overall inflation problem can only be exponential, it will only get worse and worse until it inevitably collapses.
There's no way out of it.

originally posted by: Edumakated

originally posted by: Krazysh0t

originally posted by: Edumakated
a reply to: Krazysh0t

Ummm... you do realize markets react to more than just one variable, right?

So tell me. What's causing the volatility if not for Trump?

Gee, where to even start....

Trade wars
FAANG tech stocks overvalued
Still too much liquidity chasing equity yields due to ZIRP
High speed trading
Lack of confidence
Profit taking

Markets react to so much information, you cannot simply say that tax cuts are responsible.

I didn't say that they were solely responsible. My ENTIRE point was that Trump's promises about the tax cuts aren't materializing which isn't good because they were calculated based on those promises being true.

originally posted by: FamCore
a reply to: Krazysh0t

"The markets" are also not synonymous with the economy... two very different things.

The tax cuts were priced into the market, but the market is already overvalued (stock buy backs and Central Bank intervention has really propped this market up)

I expect a large correction in the markets sometime in the next 8 months (but I'm not a professional market analyst either)

And we'll probably just have to tough it out the hard way too since the Trump admin just employed one of our last tools to lessen the brunt of an economic downturn.

originally posted by: Bluntone22
I would say it's way to early to judge the effectiveness of the tax cuts.

You're right.

By proxy then, all the people who were saying they got more money on their tax returns because of the tax cuts when in fact the tax cuts are going to show effect in the fiscal year 2020, those people were all morons..?

Or when the job numbers or economic growth are positive, trumpets attribute it to a bill passed no more than 4 months ago? Would you say they're a bit simple .

It's funny, when evidence of the tax bill not being effective (yet), logic creeps back in and people can rationalize it's too early, yet 2 months ago when there was an optimistic posture by wall street and things went 'up', it seems the reasoning of 'too early to make conclusions' wasn't there at all... Not just ats, but just about on every right wing outlet...

.....

But still, the economy is on the up ever since Trump realized he's running a country with people's lives at stake. 2017 saw amazing growth in just a freshman year. Let's see what happens in another year

a reply to: Krazysh0t

the go to tactic to blame anything wrong with the country by Trump and his sycophantic supporters is to blame the Democrats

There's truth in that. But really, the core of the problem isn't that hard to understand. The core of the problem is that everything in this country has become politicized without any consideration or serious debate about:
POLICY CHOICES

When was the last time you saw two people running for office actually discuss and debate policy issues?
So, you mentioned the problem of Supply Side Economics! Its been so long since I saw a reference to that, I had to look it up! Then I remembered....."David Stockman"? Maybe.

From: www.commondreams.org...
(yea, commondreams, because I read everything!)

Supply Side Economics claimed that if the government cut taxes on the wealthy, it would jump-start the economy as the wealthy plowed their tax savings back into investments. New factories fitted with new technologies would produce goods at lower cost, taming inflation. And the newly hired workers would tame unemployment. It would, in effect, square the economic circle, fixing both inflation and unemployment at the same time.

Contrast this wishful thinking with Demand Side economics. Demand Side Economics, says that if taxes are to be cut, they should go to those who earn the least amount of money. The reason is that low-income workers spend virtually all of their incomes. Money given to them goes right back into circulation, fueling a boom in consumer spending. This is essentially the policy that rescued the U.S. economy from the Great Depression. This, say the Demand Side economists, is the real foundation for an expanding economy.

Here's the real point I want to make! STOP TALKING ABOUT POLITICAL PARTIES! Start "considering" policy choices! Here's an idea...............why not start considering DIFFERENT solutions to known problems to figure out WHAT WORKS BEST!

How damned hard is that? Maybe its too hard for humans. I met a young German woman, (Graduate Student), who was working on algorithmic quantum computing programs that would essentially "model" problems vs. solutions with an eye to better governance. At the end of the day.........HAL 2000 could better govern in terms of policy choices than any Democrat or Republican!

Yesterday they were going after the over-taxation of small business too. Trying to level the playing field.

Jfc dude stop it.

a reply to: TonyS

I have a solution. Raise taxes. If debt is spiraling out of control then logically you need to raise your income. It seems like spending is impossible to cut in Congress, so the next logical step is to raise taxes.

When was the last time you saw two people running for office actually discuss and debate policy issues?

Hillary Clinton actually had very detailed and comprehensive policy proposals but no one wanted to talk about them and instead wanted to attack her character instead. Love her or hate her, this fact is incontrovertible.

Plus, the democrat point was just an aside. It isn't even close to the meat and potatoes of what I'm trying to get across.

The market hasn't been correctly priced since the beginning of QE.

This isn't a Republican/Democrat problem but merely a symptom of a debt based economy being helmed by a agency with little to no oversight. I think it's called the federal reserve, but I'll check my references to be sure. (sarc/.)

Keep your eye on the bond market.

a reply to: odzeandennz

Tax cuts on personal income took effect immediately. The long term effect of the cuts are long term.
Why is that so hard to understand?

Markets are fairly poor indicator of the general economy.

Markets going up had very little to do with Trump.

Markets going back down again likewise.