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The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist – a saying that became reinterpreted to teach a different lesson after black swans were discovered in the wild.
The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:
The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.
The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs.
originally posted by: knowledgehunter0986
a reply to: Lab4Us
You aren't alone with those thoughts, believe me. It's almost prophetic in a way how all these events feel like its leading up to one big climax.
If life imitates art, we've all read this script and seen this movie before.
originally posted by: toysforadults
Behold a Pale Horse?
originally posted by: seeker1963
a reply to: knowledgehunter0986
Ever consider this whole gender thing being pushed in our educational system? Toxic masculinity? How boys being taught they are toxic just because they are boys? Noticed any girls shooting up a school lately?
I don't care how smart us serfs thinks we are, there are so many cogs of the MACHINE at work it could and would most likely drive someone normal insane to figure out the complexity of how we are being controlled.......
originally posted by: DBCowboy
a reply to: knowledgehunter0986
You can't have a discussion about banning guns without a justification, so law makers, policy makers design and create environments where mass shootings take place.
originally posted by: NarcolepticBuddha
a reply to: knowledgehunter0986
I thought we on ATS weren't allowed to use the F words in relation to shootings anymore?
Of course they are! Just look at the 'attention Hogg' they pulled out their sleeve.