Former deputy commander of U.S. Forces in Korea says "US could lose"

Can we please dispense with the "North Korea will devastate Seoul if the US attacks" myth? It's debunked in every NK thread I see, yet no one seems to be willing to accept it. They love the myth of the deadly North Korea.

The biggest anticipated cost of a North Korean artillery barrage in response to an attack would be the at least partial destruction of Seoul. But the volume of fire that the North can direct against the South Korean capital is limited by some important factors. Of the vast artillery force deployed by the North along the border, only a small portion — Koksan 170-mm self-propelled guns, as well as 240-mm and 300-mm multiple launch rocket systems — are capable of actually reaching Seoul. Broadly speaking, the bulk of Pyongyang's artillery can reach only into the northern border area of South Korea or the northern outskirts of Seoul.

All forms of North Korean artillery have problems with volume and effectiveness of fire, but those issues are often more pronounced for the longer-range systems. Problems include the high malfunction rate of indigenous ammunition, poorly trained artillery crews, and a reluctance to expend critical artillery assets by exposing their positions.

Source

This isn't the only source either. Just google "North Korean artillery can't reach Seoul" and you'll find multiple sources. Some of their artillery can reach, most of it can't. And the ones that can can only hit the outskirts. Hundreds of thousands of people will not die in Seoul. Please stop spreading this misinformation.

a reply to: face23785

You make an interesting point. I took your challenge:

This isn't the only source either. Just google "North Korean artillery can't reach Seoul" and you'll find multiple sources.

And you are quite right. Seoul itself will not be leveled by an NK retaliatory strike with artillery and rockets. There are a lot of factors working against them; including unreliable munitions and poor training. It's likely that only a small fraction of their ordnance will actually rain down on Seoul. At least one source I read estimated that SK deaths in Seoul would be a few thousand at most resulting from the bombardment. Furthermore, once NK begins using its artillery, its likely to be mostly destroyed within a couple of days as they reveal themselves when they start firing.

Seoul also has significant number of underground bunkers. Reportedly these bunkers are able to accommodate up to 20 million people; further limiting the immediate effect of an NK bombardment of the city.

While its possible that NK has some biological weapons capability, it's unlikely to be widely deployed, if at all. Their chemical weapons are aging, and NK likely has many fewer shells and rockets that are actually capable of delivering that payload. Add in the other factors that limit the impact of NK's artillery and rockets and it's likely that less than 1% of NK's chemical weapons could actually be used. Having said that, NK is estimated to have at least 2,500 metric tons of chemical weapons. That works out to about 25 metric tons of usable chemical weapons. Assuming that 10% of those weapons actually get out of their launchers and land in the Northern part of SK around Seoul, it results in only about 2.5 metric tons of Mustard gas, Sarin and Vx nerve agents being released. I'm not sure of the area covered by any single munition, but the type of death inflicted by these weapons is most horrific and any press coverage of a single successful attack would not go over too well with anyone watching it.

So, anyone who believes that Seoul would be leveled by a North Korean artillery and rocket attack across the DMZ is certainly believing in fiction. However, it would be unwise to minimize the impact of such an attack. The destruction of property and infrastructure would still likely be significant. The terror induced by such an attack would also likely be significant; possibly leading to a massive refugee crisis as people attempt to flee the city and surrounding suburbs.

But, the artillery strikes are likely to be only one part of NK's retaliatory strategy against the South:

One of the most credible weapons available to the North Koreans in a war with South Korea and the United States is Pyongyang's large commando and sabotage force. The North Koreans, for decades aware of their growing conventional imbalance with the South, have invested heavily in the asymmetric capability that a commando force brings to the table.

Capable of being inserted into South Korea through tunnels, submersibles and aircraft such as the low-signature Antonov An-2, specialized North Korean commando units could wreak havoc in the South by attacking key infrastructure, logistics nodes, and command-and-control facilities. These attacks, when combined with other conventional and asymmetric strikes, can paralyze economic activity and would almost certainly lead to the diversion of a disproportionate amount of resources and personnel to track down and eliminate the units.

Stratfor: Cost of Intervention

This article goes on to also discuss the effectiveness of NK's submarine forces in inflicting additional terror on SK; including disrupting commerce. Given South Korea's importance to the global economy, these actions will ripple out to affect economies across the world.

Once we factor in other possibilities, like the effectiveness of NK's ballistic missiles and their potential ability to actually field nuclear weapons, the probability of causing a significant global economic impact is rather high. Not to mention the non-trivial level of death and destruction that North Korea could inflict on any ground forces. I believe that once Kim is cornered and about to be captured or killed, he would have no problem with detonating a nuclear device on his own soil, just to exact as much revenge as possible on the invaders.

Just because we are being misled about the true effectiveness of an NK artillery barrage on Seoul, we should not underestimate Kim's ability to cause massive disruption in Asia; leading to very negative consequences for the entire planet.

-dex

a reply to: DexterRiley

I am glad you did some reading with an open mind. I know the "hundreds of thousands of South Koreans will die" fetishists will mostly ignore my post, but if just one person learns something, I consider that mission accomplished. Also, I by no means meant to minimize the impact. One South Korean citizen or soldier dying is a tragedy. I simply wanted to point out the media completely oversells what would actually happen.

originally posted by: face23785
a reply to: DexterRiley

I am glad you did some reading with an open mind. I know the "hundreds of thousands of South Koreans will die" fetishists will mostly ignore my post, but if just one person learns something, I consider that mission accomplished. Also, I by no means meant to minimize the impact. One South Korean citizen or soldier dying is a tragedy. I simply wanted to point out the media completely oversells what would actually happen.

Agreed.


There are more than enough reasons not to go to war with North Korea without fabricating this holocaust of death and destruction about Seoul.

-dex

Well damn guys, its really quite simple. Spoiled first world children want robot companions, wireless speakers, smart phones and watches, tablets, pet robo dogs and cats, holograms, VR and all kinds of other things. Well we need resources to fulfill those wishes. Don't you want your children to love you at Christmas time??

Lithium and other rare earth metals are required for the continue expansion and proliferation of these fun things. How many categories of rechargeable things have shown up even at cheap ass dollar store and discount outlet stores shelves by the hundreds in PDQ's in the last ten years alone? How many metric tons of lithium and other REM's has been mined in order to fulfill that demand? Any idea where these resources come from?? Either from our many unstable client states beholden to our CEO's, Generals and Senators or our latest battle zone.

People demand stable prices throughout the year. Sometimes the only way that can happen is by taking control of new markets. If you want your children to love you because you get him the next new rechargeable robot or entertainment computer on the right holiday you will support this war. Even the Asian powers need it. They have to sell their own heroic epic of bullsnap to their population as well.

When expansion slows, we have to blow # up so we can knock it down, clear it out, and build it all back up again. THAT is how we keep markets stable and making target forecasts for the shareholders. That is the foundation of our very way of life. Do you hate our way of life??