How long till and what do we do once human labor is irrelevant???

a reply to: odzeandennz

I disagree.. it just might take reverting back to a straight up socialism.

Such as with a universal wage.

a reply to: pikestaff

I would like to watch a machine make a pair of boots

pick strawberries, or any fruit

assemble a tin shed (one of those that takes half a day but takes two people two days)

Even better. A 3D printed concrete castle.

If you actually look, there already exist machines that do many of the things you've mentioned. And it's only going to get better with time.

Some "human",.. somewhere, is going to have to grease the machine/machines. I wouldn't worry so much, if I were you? I'd get an "education" in a real skill. I wouldn't bother becoming an M.D. or any other "doctor", in "human" related studies... Unless they come with zerk fittings. You, apparently, would be wasting your time. Get an "education" in reality, and not "experiment" and "educated" questions and guesses. The future has no place, for educated idiots. Just people that know how to get things done, when it needs done and who knows how to do it. The day's od "science" witchcraft and "wonderment" are over. Society has already lost to much tax dollars, playing "liberal" card sharp... "New Ice age"? Nope, sorry! "New",.."Global Warming"? Nope, sorry!. We mean, "humans are evil! And doing bad stuff to the globe"! No educated person takes them seriously. It's time to get back to what works and reality. Machines do what they're told to do. Much like libs and democrats. No ill effect will come upon the world because of this.

a reply to: JoshuaCox

Why do you need many machines for FEW people? Thats the end result right?

When we can build machines to starve the people of work and quality goods, what happens when the people reduce in number and require less quantity in favor of better quality?

When you need a hand crafted space suit, a bunker, entire city power grid and so on, but no schools reach the hight of progress to mold students into more than lever pushers. Where do you turn? Do you outsource to an emptied world?

Can a hand selected few meet the demands of an entire planet? Thats proud. One flare or flood away from the stone age is what that is.....

originally posted by: JoshuaCox
a reply to: luke1212

The government prints the money, lol and it’s not like money is real...

It’s jyst smoke and mirrors.. it’s not based on anything and gold isn’t even that functional.

Smoke and mirrors...interesting observation.

But, do you realise that "smoke and mirrors" are much more "real" than "digital currency" of today?

originally posted by: PsychoEmperor

originally posted by: JoshuaCox

So what new field takes their place??

What do we do economicly to keep the money circulating and us peasants from burning it all down??

IDEALLY it would lead to some kind of Living Wage paid to everyone. And people would be free to live their lives as they see fit, exploring the world, going to school, expanding themselves without worrying about daily bills.

In Reality, I'm sure we'd find a way to make ourselves useful. We are humans after all, and if there were no jobs, there would be no point to automation, as no one would have money to buy the products. Things would even out, either via some type of living wage, or different jobs that we aren't even able to understand yet.

On a positive note, if we end up living in a truly automated society, almost anyone would be able to start their own business. That could be the wave of the future. Everyone has a 3d printer, self driving car, and we all start making our own personal businesses.

Old saying " taking in each others washing"

a reply to: JoshuaCox

Interesting to see a robot applying glue to a show sole, where is the rest ? the fruit picker, too slow, much too show.
anyway, good effort.

I think part of a "solution" is to have automation in our homes as well. It seems an obvious matter of course to me.

So, instead of providing food stamps, something like an automated aquaponics system would be the alternative. Its a higher initial cost, but quickly becomes more cost effective.

Once home automation goes beyond toys for the rich, like changing the color of lights, it can completely replace anything like a living wage based on fiat currency. It will also ideally have the added bonus of making each family a self-sufficient, decentralized entity that are still connected through communication technology.

It will take a pretty extensive overhaul to our Cultural Story, but that is long overdue anyway. Many work to provide needs to themselves and their family. It will be quite a shift when the means of producing and manufacturing those needs is placed in the hands of everyone.

a reply to: tadaman

I don’t think it goes that direction..

As you eluded to, they have to keep their consumer base. I think we go startrek socialism before it’s over, but how much pain till then.

a reply to: pikestaff

TODAY...

Look at the speed of technology and you think picked by oranges is too hard for a machine?!?

Lol

a reply to: AMPTAH
Digital currency is even less “real” lol.. in a worst case scenerio at least you can use money as a fire starter. After a societal collapse digital money would be totally useless.

All money is fake.. the whole concept.

It takes labor, materials and know how to create EVERYTHING.

You cannot remove any of those things and replace it with money and still create something.

Materials , knowledge and labor are all that count. Money is just the easiest way we have figured out to distribute those things.

a reply to: JoshuaCox

I'm hoping for that "startrek socialism". In fact, one of my side projects is figuring out how to set up a small mostly automated compound/community that automates the vast majority of human needs so the citizens can focus on other things. I'm basically thinking of a high tech version of Amish communities (as in, incredibly self sufficient communities that let automation take care of most needs). I want a system that only needs 5-10% of its citizens to work for 20 or fewer hours per week, preferably with those workers rotating among the population at set intervals (as in "it's my week to help w/the industrial farm but I won't have to work again for x-amount of weeks afterwards"). As the technology progressed, it would get to a point where even this amount of human labor wouldn't be necessary.

Originally I wanted this type of system for everyone. But not now. I see no point in dragging people forward if they don't want to progress technologically. I'd rather set up this type of system for myself, my inner circle, and like minded individuals, and then let everyone else stick with the "work or die" system that they seem to love. And if the system works as envisioned, it could be scaled up in individual communities/cities/counties, etc.

a reply to: enlightenedservant

I'm hoping for that "startrek socialism". In fact, one of my side projects is figuring out how to set up a small mostly automated compound/community that automates the vast majority of human needs so the citizens can focus on other things. I'm basically thinking of a high tech version of Amish communities (as in, incredibly self sufficient communities that let automation take care of most needs). I want a system that only needs 5-10% of its citizens to work for 20 or fewer hours per week, preferably with those workers rotating among the population at set intervals (as in "it's my week to help w/the industrial farm but I won't have to work again for x-amount of weeks afterwards"). As the technology progressed, it would get to a point where even this amount of human labor wouldn't be necessary.

That sounds like an interesting project. Is this still in the thought experiment phase? Or have you started writing down some specs and requirements yet?

-dex

originally posted by: JoshuaCox
So what new field takes their place??

What do we do economicly to keep the money circulating and us peasants from burning it all down??

In a broad sense I'm in the automation field since I do software design. Programming will be the final job automated, because once it's automated it can automate everything else. Though, just like many other jobs the barrier to entry on programming will continue to come down and efficiency will increase.

It's going to be a long time before we move away from all human labor, but I think it will drop off on a logarithmic curve, say 33% less labor needed per decade.

So what does everyone else do? UBI is the only way.

originally posted by: luke1212
a reply to: JoshuaCox

eventually the government will put a ban on automation. or a semi ban allowing so many robots to people. otherwise the government will stop getting tax money. then everyone else not working will get a national wage paid for by those still working, a new social security.

Not true, you tax the sales from the robot labor.

originally posted by: JAGStorm
Automation is happening fast in some areas but there are a lot of areas that need help! For example, we have driverless cars, we have drones for delivery, we have nanobots that scope for cancer etc. When you look inside the house things that are traditionally "women's work" not a lot has changed. The washer, dryer, fridge, oven, sink have all pretty much stayed the same. Seriously, can someone invent something that sorts, washes, dries and fold clothing? How about a robot that has dinner ready for you when you come home, microwave is close but the quality isn't the same. I always thought it was silly that we put dishes into the dishwasher just to take them out and put in a separate cabinet, how about the dishwasher as the cabinet? The sink, how old is that sucker? Sure they make them pretty now, but nothing has changed. How about a sink with a built in composting system instead of disposal, or one that sanitizes without water. How about one that analyzes your water quality, or adds carbonation. Sigh, a girl can dream..

I hate doing housework. I'm getting extremely close to hiring a cleaning service. For the price of 2 hours labor I can have my apartment cleaned once a week, saving me a bunch of time. I no longer have to do dishes, I got myself a sous vide recently, and use paper plates. There's literally zero cleanup. I don't have a washer/dryer but I would be interested in one of the japanese models that combines washing and drying into one machine.

Seriously though, look into a sous vide. They're marvelous inventions.

originally posted by: PsychoEmperor
On a positive note, if we end up living in a truly automated society, almost anyone would be able to start their own business. That could be the wave of the future. Everyone has a 3d printer, self driving car, and we all start making our own personal businesses.

I miss multi quoting.

If everyone has a 3d printer there's not much you'll be able to use it for in a business. Patterns will be available free online in one form or another. I used to think I would be able to use my 3d modeling skills as a backup when 3d printing takes off, but the more time goes by the more I realize that's not going to be possible.

originally posted by: lawman27
However, speaking as a student of history, the reality is that when enough people are out of work, wages will fall to a level that many people are cheaper than one machine. I suspect at that point we will end with a 3 tier society-very rich people living like kings, advanced robots performing difficult work, and a class who are effectively slaves, working for food. Look at any slave holding society and with the exception of craftsmen rather than robots, thats what you had.

I disagree. Human labor has a floor, of the costs for food and shelter to keep us alive. We also have a maximum production rate that is many thousands of times lower than machines. Highly trained people excel at artisian work where every piece is a unique composition, we kinda shot ourselves in the foot with the idea of machined parts though. Machines excel at assembly line work, people cannot compete.

Let me give an example. I built an AI about 2 years ago as a project to tinker with, I still use it. What the AI does is play MTG and build optimal decklists given a pool of cards. Every few months there's an event in Magic called a Pro Tour in which teams of 9 people prepare for 2-3 weeks in secrecy, then play the tournament. 9 people at 12 hours per day for 21 days gives you about 7000 games to build your testing data from (treating each player as it's own game for match purposes). My AI plays 20 games per second. Granted, my AI isn't as talented as these players, but I can make up for quality with quantity. With 22 hours of letting my AI run, and then 2 hours to analyze the database created, I get about 1.6 million games worth of data. Over 200 times the data, in 1/20 the time.

People cannot compete with machines. They just can't.

a reply to: DexterRiley

It's still in the theoretical stage. I originally just wanted to increase automation usage in every city by replacing govt service workers with kiosks, using 3D printing equipment to produce public housing, etc. That stuff is a lot easier to plan and can be implemented easier if enough politicians get onboard with the idea (remember, one of my future goals is to become a lobbyist).

But I've admittedly become cynical and simply don't want to waste anymore of my time trying to convince people that automation can be a great thing. So I've basically scrapped my original ideas and just want to start a highly automated compound or small community from scratch.

To expand on my first paragraph: The original theory was for govts to provide the needs of its citizens while citizens are free to work or start businesses related to their "wants". That would mean govt provides public transportation, 3D printed houses for those who need them, a basic food supply (like corn, potatoes, apples, lettuce, and meat), public schools, etc. All of those things would be heavily augmented with automation to reduce their costs, like self driving electric buses for public transportation; govt run industrial farms that rely heavily on automation for processing; 3D printed housing units; and high tech schools. As technology advanced, even more govt functions would be replaced with automation.

ETA: If citizens wanted more than the basics, they would still work to attain them, develop them on their own, or purchase them from other vendors. Basically, I would be using automation equipment to help the public as a whole and to reduce government labor costs, instead of simply using it in a corporate environment.

ETA2: LOL I just realized I could've made my post a lot shorter by simply saying "I wanted to use automation to reduce govt labor costs and to provide goods and services for the taxpayers".

a reply to: enlightenedservant

It will happen, the more efficient government part at least.

Costs on everything are going to continue to fall, while average wages should continue to rise. With proper taxation it should be possible to provide for all.

I think the problem a lot of people have though, is that they define themselves by their job. So when automation takes away that job, they lose a piece of themselves. I know personally that when I'm working I feel better about myself than when I'm not.

I'm all for eliminating work, but that just means we need to teach people other ways to use their time.